{ "format": "agent-report-v1", "schema": "https://killbot.cash/research-data/agent-report-v1.schema.json", "id": "2026-11-06-nvda-research", "edition": "2026-11-06", "url": "https://killbot.cash/blog/2026-11-06-nvda-research", "evidence_url": "https://killbot.cash/research-data/2026-11-06-nvda-research.json", "symbol": "NVDA", "asset_class": "stock", "horizon": "3m", "as_of": "2026-11-06T09:10:41.787000Z", "last_session": "2026-11-05", "last_close": 181.6, "currency": "USD", "view": { "rating": "Overweight", "decision_state": "DIRECTIONAL_VIEW", "score": 4, "score_inputs": [ { "factor": "valuation", "points": 2, "reason": "valuation points cheap" }, { "factor": "revisions", "points": 1, "reason": "analysts raised this year's EPS estimate" }, { "factor": "growth", "points": 1, "reason": "revenue expected to grow fast this year" } ], "valuation_signal": { "direction": "CHEAP", "reasons": [ "price implies a lower free-cash-flow margin than delivered" ] } }, "headline": "Cash generation and growth support an Overweight view", "summary": "Overweight is supported by the computed gap between the free-cash-flow margin implied by today’s enterprise value and the margin delivered: the implied level is materially lower. The latest quarter’s strong results and the business’s high margins support that view, though peer comparisons and the DCF depend on assumptions. The scheduled report could change the call: weaker demand, delivery or margin evidence would undermine it. Sales multiples are not like for like because NVDA’s net margin is far above the peer median; the EV/EBITDA and P/E comparisons also inform the valuation.", "key_metrics": [ { "metric": "last_close", "label": "Last closing price", "value": 181.6, "unit": "USD", "period_end": "2026-11-05", "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/", "evidence_id": "calc:last_close", "caveat": null }, { "metric": "revenue_yoy_pct", "label": "Quarterly revenue growth, year over year", "value": 105.85, "unit": "percent", "period_end": "2026-07-26", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/0001045810-26-000075-index.html", "evidence_id": "calc:revenue_yoy_pct", "caveat": null }, { "metric": "operating_margin_pct", "label": "Quarterly operating margin", "value": 66.24, "unit": "percent", "period_end": "2026-07-26", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/0001045810-26-000075-index.html", "evidence_id": "calc:operating_margin_pct", "caveat": null }, { "metric": "indicative_price_to_eps", "label": "P/E, trailing twelve months", "value": 22.96, "unit": "multiple", "period_end": "2026-07-26", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/0001045810-26-000075-index.html", "evidence_id": "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "caveat": "Indicative multiple; EPS arithmetic is approximate, not a fair value or forward P/E." }, { "metric": "forward_price_to_eps", "label": "Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus)", "value": 19.5, "unit": "multiple", "period_end": "2027-01-31", "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/#earnings-estimates", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_price_to_eps", "caveat": "Forward multiple on analyst consensus; not a fair value. The consensus EPS agrees with Yahoo's (51 analysts) within 15%." }, { "metric": "ttm_free_cashflow", "label": "Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months", "value": 127006000000.0, "unit": "USD", "period_end": "2026-07-26", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/0001045810-26-000075-index.html", "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "caveat": "This definition does not adjust for acquisitions, leases or stock compensation." }, { "metric": "relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "label": "Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions", "value": -6.45, "unit": "percentage_points", "period_end": "2026-11-05", "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation." }, { "metric": "relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "label": "Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions", "value": 10.96, "unit": "percentage_points", "period_end": "2026-11-05", "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/history/", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation." }, { "metric": "max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "label": "Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions", "value": -24.09, "unit": "percent", "period_end": "2026-11-05", "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/", "evidence_id": "calc:max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "caveat": null } ], "peers": [ { "symbol": "AMD", "price_session": "2026-11-05", "fiscal_end": "2026-09-26", "pe_trailing": 87.72, "ev_to_sales": 14.59, "forward_ev_to_sales": 12.94, "net_margin_pct": 16.77, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000018/0000002488-26-000018-index.html" }, { "symbol": "AVGO", "price_session": "2026-11-05", "fiscal_end": "2026-08-02", "pe_trailing": 37.18, "ev_to_sales": 16.39, "forward_ev_to_sales": 13.78, "net_margin_pct": 42.94, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html" }, { "symbol": "QCOM", "price_session": "2026-11-05", "fiscal_end": "2026-09-27", "pe_trailing": 12.34, "ev_to_sales": 4.02, "forward_ev_to_sales": 3.86, "net_margin_pct": 31.6, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432826000128/0000804328-26-000128-index.html" } ], "dcf": { "status": "EXPLICIT_OPERATING_DCF_SENSITIVITY", "scenarios": [ { "revenue_growth_year_one": 0.539698, "wacc": 0.08, "enterprise_value": 4713521606123.9 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 0.539698, "wacc": 0.1, "enterprise_value": 3493385113308.97 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 0.539698, "wacc": 0.12, "enterprise_value": 2763301392627.94 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 1.08, "wacc": 0.08, "enterprise_value": 9184946667484.28 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 1.08, "wacc": 0.1, "enterprise_value": 6753870542653.12 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 1.08, "wacc": 0.12, "enterprise_value": 5301847601230.77 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 1.62, "wacc": 0.08, "enterprise_value": 16051929650504.47 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 1.62, "wacc": 0.1, "enterprise_value": 11733919517940.49 }, { "revenue_growth_year_one": 1.62, "wacc": 0.12, "enterprise_value": 9158497505066.83 } ] }, "technical": { "version": "technical-v1", "session": "2026-11-05", "unit": "session", "summary": "NVDA closed at $181.60, 17.7% below its 50-day average and 11.3% below its 200-day average; the 50-day average is above the 200-day. Over the last month the price fell 23.5%, over three months it fell 18.9%. RSI is 25.4, and the average daily range is about 4% of the price.", "values": { "atr14_pct": 4.04, "high_20": 233.92, "high_year": 243.37, "low_20": 181.46, "low_year": 164.27, "return_month_pct": -23.53, "return_quarter_pct": -18.91, "rsi14": 25.39, "sma200": 204.66, "sma50": 220.64, "volume_ratio": 3.28 }, "rows": [ { "label": "Close vs 50-day average", "reading": "Below; average $220.64", "value": "−17.7%" }, { "label": "Close vs 200-day average", "reading": "Below; average $204.66", "value": "−11.3%" }, { "label": "50-day vs 200-day average", "reading": "50-day above 200-day", "value": "+7.8%" }, { "label": "RSI (14)", "reading": "Scale 0–100; 30 and 70 are the usual bounds", "value": "25.4" }, { "label": "Average true range (14)", "reading": "Typical daily range, share of price", "value": "4.04%" }, { "label": "Volume vs 20-session median", "reading": "Session 2026-11-05", "value": "3.28×" }, { "label": "Return, 1 month / 3 months", "reading": "21 and 63 sessions", "value": "−23.5% / −18.9%" }, { "label": "52-week range", "reading": "Close 25.4% below the high", "value": "$164.27–$243.37" }, { "label": "20-session low / high", "reading": "Recent trading range", "value": "$181.46 / $233.92" } ] }, "analyst_consensus": { "actions": [ { "action": "maintained", "date": "2026-11-02", "firm": "Melius Research", "from_grade": "Buy", "prior_target": 420.0, "target": 315.0, "to_grade": "Buy" } ], "actions_days": 7, "analysts": 62, "buy": 59, "hold": 2, "last_close": 181.60000610351562, "ratings": { "now": { "buy": 49, "hold": 2, "sell": 1, "strongBuy": 10, "strongSell": 0 }, "one_month_ago": { "buy": 49, "hold": 2, "sell": 1, "strongBuy": 10, "strongSell": 0 }, "three_months_ago": { "buy": 48, "hold": 2, "sell": 1, "strongBuy": 9, "strongSell": 0 } }, "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T09:10:28.995000Z", "sell": 1, "source": "yahoo_finance_free", "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/", "targets": { "high": 515.0, "low": 180.0, "mean": 327.1431, "median": 315.0, "vs_close_pct": { "high": 183.59, "low": -0.88, "mean": 80.14, "median": 73.46 } }, "version": "analyst-consensus-v1" }, "news_tone": { "by_day": [ { "date": "2026-11-06", "negative": 9, "neutral": 21, "positive": 2 }, { "date": "2026-11-05", "negative": 0, "neutral": 8, "positive": 0 } ], "counts": { "negative": 9, "neutral": 29, "positive": 2 }, "headlines": [ { "provider": "Motley Fool", "published_at": "2026-11-06T08:35:00Z", "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/06/palantir-and-amd-just-reported-earnings-history-sa/", "title": "Palantir and AMD Just Reported Earnings. 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Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary", "tone": "neutral" }, { "provider": "Moby", "published_at": "2026-11-05T23:45:32Z", "source_url": "https://app.moby.co/home/research/tools/earningsCalendar/earnings-duke-energy-corporation-q3-2026-earnings-call-summary?utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=rss", "title": "Duke Energy Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary", "tone": "neutral" }, { "provider": "Moby", "published_at": "2026-11-05T23:45:31Z", "source_url": "https://app.moby.co/home/research/tools/earningsCalendar/earnings-the-middleby-corporation-q3-2026-earnings-call-summary?utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=rss", "title": "The Middleby Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary", "tone": "neutral" }, { "provider": "Moby", "published_at": "2026-11-05T23:45:29Z", "source_url": "https://app.moby.co/home/research/tools/earningsCalendar/earnings-frontdoor-inc-q3-2026-earnings-call-summary?utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=rss", "title": "Frontdoor, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary", "tone": "neutral" }, { "provider": "Moby", "published_at": "2026-11-05T23:43:56Z", "source_url": "https://app.moby.co/home/research/tools/earningsCalendar/earnings-haemonetics-corporation-q2-2027-earnings-call-summary?utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=rss", "title": "Haemonetics Corporation Q2 2027 Earnings Call Summary", "tone": "neutral" }, { "provider": "Moby", "published_at": "2026-11-05T23:36:13Z", "source_url": "https://app.moby.co/home/research/tools/earningsCalendar/earnings-conocophillips-q3-2026-earnings-call-summary?utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=rss", "title": "ConocoPhillips Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary", "tone": "neutral" }, { "provider": "Moby", "published_at": "2026-11-05T23:33:58Z", "source_url": "https://app.moby.co/home/research/tools/earningsCalendar/earnings-ralph-lauren-corporation-q2-2027-earnings-call-summary?utm_source=yahoo_finance&utm_medium=rss", "title": "Ralph Lauren Corporation Q2 2027 Earnings Call Summary", "tone": "neutral" } ], "method": "Tone of each headline labelled by the model from the headline text alone; counts and day splits computed by code. Headlines from Yahoo Finance.", "source": "yahoo_finance_free", "version": "news-tone-v1", "window": { "end": "2026-11-06T08:35:00Z", "start": "2026-11-05T23:33:58Z" } }, "next_event": { "kind": "earnings_report", "date": "2026-11-17", "eps_estimate": 2.47, "revenue_estimate": 108976833310.0, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/" }, "thesis": { "drivers": "Compute and Networking dominated reported segment revenue and supplied nearly all reported segment growth, while Graphics grew more slowly. Within the separate product partition, Hyperscale was the largest category and AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise contributed strongly; Edge Computing was weaker. These partitions describe the same revenue and should not be added together. The United States led geography, with Taiwan also material. Because one segment grew far faster than the rest, the supplied figures do not separate acquired growth from organic growth. Concentration in infrastructure demand makes deployment and customer spending important sensitivities.", "valuation": "The forward EV/sales multiple is below the peer median, and today’s enterprise value would require revenue below the supplied consensus to match that peer multiple. Yet sales are not like for like: NVDA’s net margin is far above the peer median, so margin explains part of the gap. Its EV/EBITDA and indicative P/E are below peer context as well; AMD’s much higher P/E reflects a different margin and earnings profile. The indicative P/E uses an approximate trailing EPS bridge, not verified forward EPS. Trailing free-cash-flow margin, both before and after treating stock compensation as a cost, exceeds the reverse-DCF steady margin implied by enterprise value, a plausible but demanding level for this high-margin business. The operating DCF uses free cash flow after stock compensation; outcomes depend materially on revenue growth, persistent margin, aggregate net reinvestment, WACC and terminal assumptions. It lacks a dynamic margin model and explicit investment schedule; the equity bridge is unreconciled.", "earnings_quality": "Trailing operating cash flow was below net income, so cash conversion—matched-period operating cash flow divided by net income—was less than earnings, despite substantial cash after capex. Free cash flow here is operating cash flow less cash capex; it does not deduct stock compensation. Compensation was meaningful but smaller than cash generation, while repurchases were substantial. Working-capital movements and noncash adjustments affect operating cash flow. The reported quarter showed very high operating income and net income; the filing excerpts supplied are outlook reconciliations, not a detailed cash-flow adjustment bridge.", "risks": "The bearish case is that rapid infrastructure investment does not translate into durable orders, deployments or margins, while customer and segment concentration amplify any slowdown. The recent drawdown is material, but the available news feed begins after it started and contains no results release within the window, so its cause is not established and the amount of bad news already reflected is unclear. The latest sharp down session had company-news headlines, but their presence alone does not prove causation. The stock also underperformed the broad technology benchmark over the observed window.", "catalysts": "The scheduled report is the main near-term test of demand, supply, delivery and margin expectations. Management’s published outlook is a company claim, while consensus figures and calendar timing are secondary sources; neither is a realized result. Past results-release reactions typically had a modest absolute move, with larger observed rises and falls, so expectations and commentary matter alongside headline results. The prior major upward move followed a results release; the available news feed does not explain the latest major decline. Confirmation of customer orders and deployment schedules would strengthen the thesis; qualification or slippage would challenge it.", "change_conditions": "The view would strengthen if reported demand and deliveries substantiate the published outlook, margins remain resilient, and trailing cash generation holds up. It would weaken if management qualifies demand, customer deployments or supply timing, or if reported margins and cash generation deteriorate. Analyst estimates are secondary forecasts: sustained downward revisions would add concern, while continued upward revisions would support the growth case. The key evidence is realized operating performance and specific customer or schedule commentary, not price weakness alone." }, "watchlist": [ { "question": "Does forward revenue delivery support the relative valuation?", "risk_direction": "higher", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "now": { "value": -17.02, "unit": "percent" } }, { "question": "Does trailing free-cash-flow margin weaken?", "risk_direction": "lower", "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_margin_pct", "now": { "value": 41.92, "unit": "percent" } }, { "question": "Do analyst revisions turn persistently negative?", "risk_direction": "lower", "evidence_id": "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct", "now": { "value": 0.056838, "unit": "percent" } } ], "data_quality": "partial", "limitations": [ "Secondary quote metrics are not independently reconciled with primary SEC facts", "Secondary fundamentals publication times are unverified; no historical ML labels", "Current session excluded until 16:15 America/New_York; early closes may be delayed", "Forward estimates, earnings calendar, macro and social sentiment are not verified", "Provider context is secondary; forecasts, schedules and management statements are not realized financial facts.", "Provider publication time and revision history may be unavailable; no historical ML labels.", "Optional alphavantage transcript: fiscal quarter not selected; this context remains unknown.", "FRED macro values use a completed US knowledge date; observation periods are not publication timestamps. No intraday historical or ML-label authority." ], "provenance": { "model": "openai/gpt-6-luna", "sources": "sec_edgar+yahoo_finance_free+alphavantage+finnhub+massive+fred", "snapshot_sha256": "78768be94cb9d446e0bdb1c511d0d9d5a7e1a198941a8c2765bfddccde6ee28a", "evidence_items": 985, "numerical_claims": "SERVER_RENDERED", "semantic_claims": "MODEL_INTERPRETATION_NOT_PROVEN" }, "terms": "Research only, not investment advice. Numbers come from the cited sources; text fields are model interpretation; the rating comes from a fixed rule. Forecasts, consensus and scenarios are not outcomes, fair values or price targets." }