{
  "schema_version": "research-v1",
  "authority": "RESEARCH_ONLY",
  "asset_class": "stock",
  "symbol": "MSFT",
  "horizon": "3m",
  "rating": "Hold",
  "summary_markdown": "# Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)\n\n**Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nData as of 05 Nov 2026, 09:13 UTC. Last completed session: 2026-11-04. Incomplete-session prices are excluded.\n\n**Confidence: normal.**\n\nCompany report on 2027-01-27 — in 83 days. (consensus EPS 4.856; revenue $96,699.6M) [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/)\n\n**Blind spots:** this report lacks management call transcript.\n\n**How the rating is set:** the rule gives Hold (valuation points rich; revenue expected to grow fast this year).\n\n## The quick read\n\nHold: the forward sales multiple against peers is the decisive gap, with Microsoft priced far above the peer median. Strong cloud demand and the latest quarter’s growth support the business, but do not erase the premium. The scheduled report could change the view if company guidance and evidence on Azure capacity deployment support durable growth and improving cash generation; weaker delivery would reinforce caution.\n\n[AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## At a glance\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $555.80 | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +18.80% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 49.76% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 29.02× | Price 2026-11-04; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $59.96B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions | +17.67 pp | 2026-09-23 to 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/) |\n| Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions | +20.67 pp | 2026-09-23 to 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK/history/) |\n| Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions | -6.69% | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nAgents and infrastructure led reported segment revenue and growth contribution; Azure was the largest product category and its growth made the strongest contribution. Microsoft Three Six Five Cloud also expanded, while Windows OEM and devices weakened; productivity and server licensing and Xbox also declined. These reconciled categories describe the same revenue base and should not be summed across partitions. The supplied figures do not separate acquired growth from organic growth. Geographic revenue grew both in the United States and outside it, with domestic growth faster.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n### Reportable Segments\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Agents And Infra | $76.80B | 83.22% | +24.52% | +19.47 pp |\n| Devices And Consumer | $15.48B | 16.78% | -3.23% | -0.67 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n### Product Categories\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Azure | $33.16B | 35.94% | +48.16% | +13.88 pp |\n| Frontier And Support Services | $2.11B | 2.28% | +4.25% | +0.11 pp |\n| Industry Solutions | $5.34B | 5.78% | +9.05% | +0.57 pp |\n| Microsoft Three Six Five Cloud | $27.78B | 30.10% | +17.24% | +5.26 pp |\n| Productivity And Server Licensing | $8.41B | 9.11% | -3.12% | -0.35 pp |\n| Search And Advertising | $6.55B | 7.10% | +10.30% | +0.79 pp |\n| Windows OEM And Devices | $3.55B | 3.85% | -21.97% | -1.29 pp |\n| XBOX | $5.38B | 5.83% | -2.34% | -0.17 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n### Geographies\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| United States | $49.46B | 53.60% | +23.41% | +12.08 pp |\n| Outside the United States | $42.82B | 46.40% | +13.90% | +6.73 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe forward sales multiple is far above the peer median, a premium that requires sustained growth and strong profitability; Microsoft’s broad cloud and productivity platform differs from peers such as Amazon, whose retail and lower-margin mix complicates comparison. The indicative trailing earnings multiple is about the peer range’s upper end, but its EPS bridge is approximate and not forward earnings. The reverse DCF implies a steady free-cash-flow margin far above trailing margins both before and after treating stock compensation as a cash cost, making that burden demanding. The sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation; value is highly sensitive to growth decay, persistent margin, aggregate net reinvestment, WACC and terminal assumptions. No dynamic margin model or reconciled equity bridge is available.\n\n[AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [AMZN filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Diluted EPS, trailing twelve months (sum of reported periods) | $19.15 per share | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 29.02× | Price 2026-11-04; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Earnings yield, trailing twelve months | 3.45% | Price 2026-11-04; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| EV / operating income, trailing twelve months | 25.18× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| EV / sales, trailing twelve months | 11.86× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 10.38× | 2027-06-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales | 5.51× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| EV / sales vs. peer median | 115.27% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Peer median earnings multiple | 18.30× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Earnings multiple vs. peer median | 58.63% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year | +19.29% | 2027-06-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus) | 5.23× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| Forward EV / sales vs. peer median | 98.44% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple | $785.51B | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus | 8.63× | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year | 4.27× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median | 102.12% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value | 1.46% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield after stock compensation | 1.15% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Net margin vs. peer median | 1.23× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000040/0001018724-26-000040-index.html) · [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Dividend yield, trailing twelve months | 0.67% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies | 64.57% | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin | 17.31% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation | 13.68% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Market EV vs. the middle DCF case | 371.91% | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n\n**Verdict:** on this fiscal year's consensus revenue, MSFT trades at 10.38× forward sales, a 98% premium to the peer median of 5.23× (on trailing sales: 11.86×, a 115% premium). At the peer forward multiple, today's price needs about $785.51B of revenue this year, 98% above the forecast. On next fiscal year's consensus it trades at 8.63×, a 102% premium to the peer median of 4.27×. On the forecast growth path, today's enterprise value implies a steady free-cash-flow margin of 65%, against 17% over the last twelve months (14% after stock compensation). Free cash flow yields 1.5% of enterprise value (1.2% after stock compensation).\n\n### Bear, base and bull on this year's revenue\n\n| Case | Revenue | Basis | EV / sales | Multiple | Price | Change vs. last close |\n|---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---:|\n| Bear | $356.26B | forecast less 10% | 8.82× | today's less 15% | $426.10 | -23.3% |\n| Base | $395.84B | forecast | 10.38× | today's | $555.80 | +0.0% |\n| Bull | $435.43B | forecast plus 10% | 11.94× | today's plus 15% | $702.05 | +26.3% |\n\nThe peer sales multiple differs from this company's by more than 25%, which margins can explain, so these cases stay on today's multiple instead of assuming it converges.\n\nTrailing EPS is the sum of reported periods, so share-count changes make it approximate.\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: chosen by business model for this company; business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| MSFT | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 29.02× | 11.86× | 10.38× | 41.17% | 1.37× |\n| [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 15.09× | 7.29× | 6.87× | 50.03% | 0.76× |\n| [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 21.51× | 3.73× | 3.59× | 16.90% | 1.25× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nStock compensation is a noncash operating-cash-flow adjustment, while repurchases are a separate financing use; treating compensation as a cash cost further reduces the observed free-cash-flow margin. The latest quarter also had heavy capital spending. Filing data show large operating earnings alongside substantial research and development costs; working-capital and other noncash adjustments remain part of operating cash flow.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Revenue, trailing twelve months | $346.44B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Net income, trailing twelve months | $142.63B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow, trailing twelve months | $195.88B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $135.92B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $59.96B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow / net income | 1.37× | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Share-based compensation, trailing twelve months | $12.56B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Share repurchases, trailing twelve months | $21.00B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Repurchases / free cash flow | 35.03% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Diluted share-count change, year over year | -0.27% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Quarterly net-income change, year over year | +32.01% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year | +32.26% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n\nFree cash flow here means operating cash flow less cash capital expenditure; it does not remove stock compensation or adjust for acquisitions and leases. A reference to adjustments in a filing is a review topic, not an automatically verified normalization.\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nThe valuation leaves Microsoft exposed if cloud demand, capacity deployment or margins disappoint: the implied steady cash-flow margin is far above delivered trailing margins, including after stock compensation. Capital spending is already substantial, and weaker returns on that investment could pressure cash generation despite strong reported earnings. Devices and consumer segment revenue declined, while several product categories weakened. The recent sharp share move is not explained by the available associated news, so it should not be taken as confirmation of improving fundamentals.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe latest filing reports strong revenue and earnings, while the outlook disclosure says management will provide forward guidance with the scheduled report; numerical guidance is not supplied here. A secondary calendar lists that report, but its timing is not confirmed by a primary company source. The next report should confirm or refute Azure demand, capacity deployment and whether investment is converting into cash. A separate large recent move lacks explanatory news in the available evidence.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm)\n\n### Into the report on 2027-01-27\n\nWhat the report will be measured against.\n\n| Measure | Reading | Basis | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Consensus revenue for the quarter | $96.70B | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $4.86 | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/) |\n| Gross margin, latest quarter | 67.79% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Net cash (cash less reported debt) | $29.03B | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this quarter, last 30 days | +0.7% (8 raised, 7 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this fiscal year, last 30 days | +1.3% (10 raised, 7 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Insider open-market trades, last 90 days | bought $0.00, sold $68.14M | SEC Form 4 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=789019&type=4) |\n\n**What would change the view:** revenue above the $96.70B consensus with full-year guidance held would argue for a positive view; revenue below it or lower full-year guidance for a negative one.\n\n**Triggers** (computed from the figures above):\n\n| What | Threshold | Effect |\n|---|---|---|\n| Quarterly revenue | above $96.70B at the 2027-01-27 report | points to the upside |\n| Quarterly EPS | above $4.86 at the 2027-01-27 report | points to the upside |\n| Gross margin | below 67.8% at the 2027-01-27 report | points to the downside |\n\n### Around the next report\n\nPrice paths if the report on 2027-01-27 (in 83 days) moves the stock the way past results did. Past reactions are observed history.\n\n| Scenario | Price | Change vs. last close | Basis |\n|---|---:|---:|---|\n| Typical past rise | $598.18 | +7.6% | median of 3 past rises |\n| Largest past rise | $641.99 | +15.5% | largest of 3 past rises |\n| Typical past fall | $533.96 | -3.9% | median of 5 past falls |\n| Largest past fall | $500.26 | -10.0% | largest of 5 past falls |\n\nPast reactions to results releases (close before the release to close after it):\n\n| Release | Timing | Reaction session | Move |\n|---|---|---|---:|\n| [2026-10-28](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/0001193125-26-436122-index.html) | after the close | 2026-10-29 | -0.2% |\n| [2026-07-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323632/0001193125-26-323632-index.html) | after the close | 2026-07-30 | +15.5% |\n| [2026-04-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526191457/0001193125-26-191457-index.html) | after the close | 2026-04-30 | -3.9% |\n| [2026-01-28](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526027198/0001193125-26-027198-index.html) | after the close | 2026-01-29 | -10.0% |\n| [2025-10-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312525256310/0001193125-25-256310-index.html) | after the close | 2025-10-30 | -2.9% |\n| [2025-07-30](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025100226/0000950170-25-100226-index.html) | after the close | 2025-07-31 | +3.9% |\n| [2025-04-30](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025061032/0000950170-25-061032-index.html) | after the close | 2025-05-01 | +7.6% |\n| [2025-01-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025010484/0000950170-25-010484-index.html) | after the close | 2025-01-30 | -6.2% |\n\n### Recent company news\n\nHeadlines from news providers, as published; not verified company disclosures.\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Microsoft, SpaceX, Marvell Technology and Preformed Line Products](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d50d49bfb158ad6462d17b4b3901572f290a61378ded5abf6a98343449b3a7fb) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Microsoft declines Nscale Texas expansion ahead of $35 bln IPO - report](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bbe2a1e53ae33d76f29090c9df101ef20f8fab47e6cf57ae43bd291049b8af1c) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Why Did AAPL, MSFT, AMC Stocks Surge To 52-Week Highs?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a283098e20c9eb92ebac38ddc8950fac405bb44e783d5bd5911335ec17de853a) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Could Be Undervalued After Its 74% Five Year Run](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d896c632f2d24f4c685baecd99cd3f04890d0fdb15880d52b20480ffc2714608) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [IREN Stock Drops After Report Says It’s Behind Microsoft’s AI Spending Delay, As Investors Turn To Earnings](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=f12171a561416ff57fdc9f997208bb0096dce9f69421de2aad47348690d0c85b) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Dow Jones Futures Rise, Techs Fall; Apple, Microsoft, Amazon Flash Buy Signals In Postelection Rally](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=2e030c1da30d95ea5d20a342e1db685e178e99be4e528f3dd64712c63336f195) (Finnhub)\n\n### Largest daily moves, last ninety sessions\n\nWith company news published from three days before to one day after each move; no news means the available feed does not explain it.\n\n| Session | Move | News around it |\n|---|---:|---|\n| 2026-07-30 | +15.5% | [Company results release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323632/0001193125-26-323632-index.html) (2026-07-29) |\n| 2026-11-04 | +6.7% | [The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Microsoft, SpaceX, Marvell Technology and Preformed Line](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d50d49bfb158ad6462d17b4b3901572f290a61378ded5abf6a98343449b3a7fb) (2026-11-05); [Microsoft declines Nscale Texas expansion ahead of $35 bln IPO - report](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bbe2a1e53ae33d76f29090c9df101ef20f8fab47e6cf57ae43bd291049b8af1c) (2026-11-05); [Why Did AAPL, MSFT, AMC Stocks Surge To 52-Week Highs?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a283098e20c9eb92ebac38ddc8950fac405bb44e783d5bd5911335ec17de853a) (2026-11-05) |\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA more constructive view would require primary guidance and subsequent reported evidence that Azure demand is being served, growth remains broad enough to offset weaker categories, and cash generation strengthens relative to earnings after the investment cycle. A more cautious view would follow guidance or results showing slower cloud demand, sustained capacity spending without commensurate cash flow, or further product weakness. Analyst estimate revisions are mixed and secondary; they do not substitute for company disclosures or realized operating results.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## Operating DCF: explicit assumptions\n\nYear-one revenue growth from the next twelve months' consensus revenue against the trailing twelve, taken in three cases (half of it, all of it and one and a half times it); the excess over 3% halves each later year; trailing free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation persists and is discounted as is; terminal growth 2%, five annual periods, WACC 8-12%. Scenario inputs, not management guidance, an estimated market WACC or calibrated forecasts.\n\nNo dynamic margin model, explicit D&A/capex/NWC schedule, acquisitions or calibrated terminal economics. Net reinvestment is an aggregate assumption; no claim of intrinsic fair value or a dated price target.\n\nHistorical operating basis: 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30. This run rate is assumed to apply at the price date; no partial-year/stub-period adjustment is made. Forecast periods below are hypothetical annual steps, not fiscal guidance.\n\n| Assumed annual revenue growth | Assumed WACC | Conditional enterprise value | Terminal share of EV |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 11% in year one, fading to 4% | 8% | $971.18B | 76.0% |\n| 11% in year one, fading to 4% | 10% | $725.92B | 69.6% |\n| 11% in year one, fading to 4% | 12% | $578.88B | 63.8% |\n| 22% in year one, fading to 4% | 8% | $1.17T | 76.6% |\n| 22% in year one, fading to 4% | 10% | $870.82B | 70.3% |\n| 22% in year one, fading to 4% | 12% | $692.81B | 64.6% |\n| 33% in year one, fading to 5% | 8% | $1.39T | 77.2% |\n| 33% in year one, fading to 5% | 10% | $1.03T | 71.0% |\n| 33% in year one, fading to 5% | 12% | $820.38B | 65.4% |\n\n### Illustrative cash-flow path\n\nThis displays the assumed middle cell for auditability; it is not a preferred forecast.\n\n| Hypothetical year | Revenue | Free cash flow after stock compensation | Discounted |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 1 | $423.75B | $57.98B | $52.71B |\n| 2 | $477.38B | $65.32B | $53.98B |\n| 3 | $514.75B | $70.43B | $52.91B |\n| 4 | $542.62B | $74.24B | $50.71B |\n| 5 | $565.44B | $77.36B | $48.04B |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/)\n\n## Thesis monitoring checklist\n\nObserved baselines are reference points, not automatic trading triggers.\n\n| What to check | Observed baseline | Direction associated with more risk |\n|---|---|---|\n| Does forecast sales growth narrow the valuation premium? | Forward EV / sales vs. peer median: 98.44% | higher |\n| Does cash flow after stock compensation improve? | Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation: 13.68% | lower |\n| Does company guidance reveal capacity or demand constraints? | New disclosure; no numeric threshold | new disclosure |\n\n## Conditional earnings and valuation sensitivity\n\nThese are mechanical assumptions applied to the current arithmetic EPS bridge and indicative multiple. They have no forecast date and do not predict the report horizon. They are not fair values, price targets, forecasts or calibrated probabilities; the unchanged-input cell simply reproduces the current closing price.\n\n| Assumed EPS change | Assumed multiple change | Conditional price | Change vs. last close |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| -10% | -15% | $425.19 | -23.5% |\n| -10% | +0% | $500.22 | -10.0% |\n| -10% | +15% | $575.25 | +3.5% |\n| +0% | -15% | $472.43 | -15.0% |\n| +0% | +0% | $555.80 | +0.0% |\n| +0% | +15% | $639.17 | +15.0% |\n| +10% | -15% | $519.67 | -6.5% |\n| +10% | +0% | $611.38 | +10.0% |\n| +10% | +15% | $703.09 | +26.5% |\n\n## Event calendar: secondary schedule\n\nDates below are provider schedules, not independently confirmed company announcements.\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2027-01-27; financial period ending not supplied by source. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/).\n\n## What this report does and does not establish\n\nRead once, applies throughout: every number links to its source; the narrative is model interpretation. Guidance and consensus are forecasts, past price reactions are history, multiples and DCF cases are context — none of it is a fair value, a price target or a probability of profit.\n\n| Research dimension | Evidence status |\n|---|---|\n| Valuation | P/E on reported earnings |\n| Cash generation | from SEC filings, matched periods |\n| Earnings quality | adjustments read from SEC filings |\n| Benchmark comparison | price returns vs. QQQ and sector ETF |\n| Sensitivity | stated assumptions, not forecasts |\n| Competitive position | limited fixed peer context |\n| Next event | data-provider calendar |\n| Business mix | primary reconciled |\n| Discounted cash flow | stated assumptions, see table |\n\nThe API response carries each figure's source, period and calculation. Benchmarks use price returns, not dividend-reinvested returns. Trading sessions are not calendar days.",
  "analysts": {},
  "model": "openai/gpt-6-luna",
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  "last_session": "2026-11-04",
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  "source": "sec_edgar+yahoo_finance_free+alphavantage+finnhub+massive+fred",
  "data_quality": "partial",
  "limitations": [
    "Secondary quote metrics are not independently reconciled with primary SEC facts",
    "Secondary fundamentals publication times are unverified; no historical ML labels",
    "Current session excluded until 16:15 America/New_York; early closes may be delayed",
    "Forward estimates, earnings calendar, macro and social sentiment are not verified",
    "Provider context is secondary; forecasts, schedules and management statements are not realized financial facts.",
    "Provider publication time and revision history may be unavailable; no historical ML labels.",
    "Optional alphavantage calendar: no eligible records; this context remains unknown.",
    "Optional alphavantage transcript: fiscal quarter not selected; this context remains unknown.",
    "FRED macro values use a completed US knowledge date; observation periods are not publication timestamps. No intraday historical or ML-label authority."
  ],
  "decision_state": "DIRECTIONAL_VIEW",
  "verification": {
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      "mix:MSFT:product_categories:AzureMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
      "mix:MSFT:reportable_segments:AgentsAndInfraMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
      "mix:MSFT:reportable_segments:DevicesAndConsumerMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
      "mix:MSFT:product_categories:MicrosoftThreeSixFiveCloudMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
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      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 135921000000.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
      "id": "calc:ttm_repurchases",
      "inputs": [
        "secflow:repurchases:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
        "secflow:repurchases:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "secflow:repurchases:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_repurchases",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 21000000000.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
      "id": "calc:ttm_share_based_compensation",
      "inputs": [
        "secflow:share_based_compensation:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
        "secflow:share_based_compensation:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "secflow:share_based_compensation:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_share_based_compensation",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 12556000000.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Arithmetic EPS bridge; diluted share changes and per-period rounding prevent an exact standardized EPS claim.",
      "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
      "id": "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
      "inputs": [
        "secflow:diluted_eps:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
        "secflow:diluted_eps:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "secflow:diluted_eps:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD/shares",
      "value": 19.15
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
      "id": "calc:ttm_income_tax",
      "inputs": [
        "secflow:income_tax:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
        "secflow:income_tax:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "secflow:income_tax:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_income_tax",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 34955000000.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
      "id": "calc:ttm_pretax_income",
      "inputs": [
        "secflow:pretax_income:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
        "secflow:pretax_income:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "secflow:pretax_income:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_pretax_income",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 177586000000.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
      "id": "calc:ttm_interest_expense",
      "inputs": [
        "secflow:interest_expense:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
        "secflow:interest_expense:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "secflow:interest_expense:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_interest_expense",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 3223000000.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
      "id": "calc:ttm_dividends_per_share",
      "inputs": [
        "secflow:dividends_per_share:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
        "secflow:dividends_per_share:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "secflow:dividends_per_share:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_dividends_per_share",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD/shares",
      "value": 3.71
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "matched_period_ratio*1",
      "id": "calc:ttm_cash_conversion",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow",
        "calc:ttm_net_income"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_cash_conversion",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "ratio",
      "value": 1.3733199655053951
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100",
      "id": "calc:ttm_net_margin_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_net_income",
        "calc:ttm_revenue"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_net_margin_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 41.16988266535814
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100",
      "id": "calc:ttm_operating_margin_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_operating_income",
        "calc:ttm_revenue"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_operating_margin_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 47.10444659325434
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100",
      "id": "calc:ttm_share_compensation_pct_of_cashflow",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_share_based_compensation",
        "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_share_compensation_pct_of_cashflow",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 6.410112416912568
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "This definition does not adjust for acquisitions, leases or stock compensation.",
      "formula": "cash_from_operations-minus-cash_capital_expenditure",
      "id": "calc:ttm_free_cashflow",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow",
        "calc:ttm_capex"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_free_cashflow",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 59957000000.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100",
      "id": "calc:ttm_fcf_margin_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_free_cashflow",
        "calc:ttm_revenue"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_fcf_margin_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 17.306354544011317
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100",
      "id": "calc:ttm_repurchases_pct_of_fcf",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_repurchases",
        "calc:ttm_free_cashflow"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ttm_repurchases_pct_of_fcf",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 35.02510132261454
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Indicative multiple; EPS arithmetic is approximate, not a fair value or forward P/E.",
      "formula": "last_complete_close/arithmetic_ttm_diluted_eps",
      "id": "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:last_close",
        "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "indicative_price_to_eps",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "multiple",
      "value": 29.02349805707409
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "formula": "100/indicative_price_to_eps",
      "id": "calc:indicative_earnings_yield_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:indicative_price_to_eps"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "indicative_earnings_yield_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 3.4454840627188403
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Secondary balance-sheet figure, used only when the filings give none that is fresh.",
      "id": "quote:total_debt",
      "kind": "financial",
      "metric": "total_debt",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/balance-sheet/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 133930999808.0
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Reported debt and cash only (no leases or minorities).",
      "formula": "last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash",
      "id": "calc:enterprise_value",
      "inputs": [
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        "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "enterprise_value",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 4109458709106.4453
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Operating income is before tax, so one-off tax items do not distort it.",
      "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/ttm_operating_income",
      "id": "calc:ev_to_ttm_operating_income",
      "inputs": [
        "calc:ttm_operating_income",
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        "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ev_to_ttm_operating_income",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "multiple",
      "value": 25.18189550346799
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Enterprise value uses reported debt and cash only (no leases or minorities).",
      "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/ttm_revenue",
      "id": "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales",
      "inputs": [
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        "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ev_to_ttm_sales",
      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "multiple",
      "value": 11.861792518600197
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Consensus of 43 analysts for the current fiscal year; a forecast.",
      "id": "est:consensus_fy_revenue:yahoo",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "consensus_fy_revenue",
      "period_end": "2027-06-30",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 395842837080.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Growth the analyst consensus expects this fiscal year; a forecast.",
      "formula": "current_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue/last_fiscal_year_revenue-1",
      "id": "calc:consensus_fy_revenue_growth_pct",
      "inputs": [
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "consensus_fy_revenue_growth_pct",
      "period_end": "2027-06-30",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 19.287617513312185
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Enterprise value uses reported debt and cash only; consensus revenue is a forecast.",
      "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/current_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue",
      "id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales",
      "inputs": [
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        "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "forward_ev_to_sales",
      "period_end": "2027-06-30",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "multiple",
      "value": 10.381541167753712
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Consensus of 54 analysts for the next fiscal year; a forecast.",
      "id": "est:consensus_next_fy_revenue:yahoo",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "consensus_next_fy_revenue",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "USD",
      "value": 475923058180.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Enterprise value on next fiscal year's consensus revenue; a forecast-based multiple.",
      "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/next_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue",
      "id": "calc:next_fy_ev_to_sales",
      "inputs": [
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        "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
        "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "next_fy_ev_to_sales",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "multiple",
      "value": 8.634712352079813
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Next twelve months' consensus revenue against the trailing twelve; a forecast.",
      "formula": "(fy_consensus*7.8/12+next_fy*4.2/12)/ttm_revenue-1",
      "id": "calc:ntm_revenue_growth_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "est:consensus_fy_revenue:yahoo",
        "est:consensus_next_fy_revenue:yahoo",
        "calc:ttm_revenue"
      ],
      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "ntm_revenue_growth_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
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      "period_start": "2025-10-01",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
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    {
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      "caveat": "Open-market purchases and sales (Form 4 codes P and S) over ninety days; grants and option exercises excluded.",
      "id": "sec:insider_sales_90d_usd",
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      "source": "sec_edgar_form4",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Open-market purchases and sales (Form 4 codes P and S) over ninety days; grants and option exercises excluded.",
      "id": "sec:insider_net_90d_usd",
      "kind": "financial",
      "metric": "insider_net_90d_usd",
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      "source": "sec_edgar_form4",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=789019&type=4",
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      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Open-market purchases and sales (Form 4 codes P and S) over ninety days; grants and option exercises excluded.",
      "id": "sec:insider_buyers_90d",
      "kind": "financial",
      "metric": "insider_buyers_90d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-05",
      "source": "sec_edgar_form4",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=789019&type=4",
      "trust": "PRIMARY",
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      "value": 0.0
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Open-market purchases and sales (Form 4 codes P and S) over ninety days; grants and option exercises excluded.",
      "id": "sec:insider_sellers_90d",
      "kind": "financial",
      "metric": "insider_sellers_90d",
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      "source": "sec_edgar_form4",
      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=789019&type=4",
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      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_quarter_change_30d_pct",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_this_quarter_change_30d_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_quarter_change_90d_pct",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_this_quarter_change_90d_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 0.7981649471695551
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_quarter_raised_30d",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_this_quarter_raised_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "count",
      "value": 8.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_quarter_cut_30d",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_this_quarter_cut_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "count",
      "value": 7.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_next_quarter_change_30d_pct",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_next_quarter_change_30d_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 1.0271008089518752
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_next_quarter_change_90d_pct",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_next_quarter_change_90d_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 1.3698011314052128
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_next_quarter_raised_30d",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_next_quarter_raised_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
      "unit": "count",
      "value": 7.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_next_quarter_cut_30d",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_next_quarter_cut_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
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      "value": 7.0
    },
    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
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      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_90d_pct",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_this_year_change_90d_pct",
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      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
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      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_year_raised_30d",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_this_year_raised_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_this_year_cut_30d",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_this_year_cut_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
      "trust": "SECONDARY_FORECAST",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_next_year_change_30d_pct",
      "kind": "forecast",
      "metric": "eps_revision_next_year_change_30d_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_next_year_change_90d_pct",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_next_year_change_90d_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Change in the analysts' EPS consensus; a forecast revision, not a result.",
      "id": "est:eps_revision_next_year_raised_30d",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_next_year_raised_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
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      "metric": "eps_revision_next_year_cut_30d",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "source": "yahoo_finance_free",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Dividends declared (or paid) per share over the last twelve months against today's price.",
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      "period_end": "2026-09-30",
      "period_start": null,
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      "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
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      "caveat": "Observed reactions to past results releases; not a forecast of the next one.",
      "formula": "close_after_results_release/close_before-1 over 8 releases",
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      "kind": "derived",
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      "period_end": "2026-10-29",
      "period_start": "2025-01-30",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/",
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      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 5.064188982494267
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Observed reactions to past results releases; not a forecast of the next one.",
      "formula": "close_after_results_release/close_before-1 over 8 releases",
      "id": "calc:earnings_move_max_up_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "snapshot:daily_ohlcv"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "earnings_move_max_up_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-10-29",
      "period_start": "2025-01-30",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/",
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      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 15.506733300956487
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Observed reactions to past results releases; not a forecast of the next one.",
      "formula": "close_after_results_release/close_before-1 over 8 releases",
      "id": "calc:earnings_move_max_down_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "snapshot:daily_ohlcv"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "earnings_move_max_down_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-10-29",
      "period_start": "2025-01-30",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/",
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      "unit": "percent",
      "value": -9.993149179840488
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Observed reactions to past results releases; not a forecast of the next one.",
      "formula": "median of 3 past rises after results releases",
      "id": "calc:earnings_move_median_rise_pct",
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        "snapshot:daily_ohlcv"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "earnings_move_median_rise_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-10-29",
      "period_start": "2025-01-30",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/",
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      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 7.6253563189282225
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "Observed reactions to past results releases; not a forecast of the next one.",
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      "id": "calc:earnings_move_median_fall_pct",
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      "metric": "earnings_move_median_fall_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-10-29",
      "period_start": "2025-01-30",
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/",
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      "unit": "percent",
      "value": -3.9296972651300055
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "One of the largest daily moves in the last 90 sessions.",
      "formula": "close/previous_close-1",
      "id": "calc:large_daily_move_1_pct",
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "large_daily_move_1_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-07-30",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/",
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      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 15.506733300956487
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    {
      "available_at": "2026-11-05T09:13:21.729000+00:00",
      "caveat": "One of the largest daily moves in the last 90 sessions.",
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      "id": "calc:large_daily_move_2_pct",
      "inputs": [
        "snapshot:daily_ohlcv"
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      "kind": "derived",
      "metric": "large_daily_move_2_pct",
      "period_end": "2026-11-04",
      "period_start": null,
      "source": "deterministic_calculation",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/",
      "trust": "DERIVED",
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": 6.681509858362911
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        "period_start": "2025-10-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "USD",
        "value": 12556000000.0
      },
      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_share_compensation_pct_of_cashflow",
        "formatted": "6.41%",
        "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ttm_share_based_compensation",
          "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow"
        ],
        "label": "Share-based compensation / operating cash flow",
        "metric": "ttm_share_compensation_pct_of_cashflow",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": "2025-10-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 6.410112416912568
      },
      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_repurchases",
        "formatted": "$21.00B",
        "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd",
        "inputs": [
          "secflow:repurchases:0001193125-26-323660:2026-06-30:2025-07-01",
          "secflow:repurchases:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "secflow:repurchases:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
        ],
        "label": "Share repurchases, trailing twelve months",
        "metric": "ttm_repurchases",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": "2025-10-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "USD",
        "value": 21000000000.0
      },
      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_repurchases_pct_of_fcf",
        "formatted": "35.03%",
        "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ttm_repurchases",
          "calc:ttm_free_cashflow"
        ],
        "label": "Repurchases / free cash flow",
        "metric": "ttm_repurchases_pct_of_fcf",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": "2025-10-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 35.02510132261454
      },
      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:diluted_share_count_yoy_pct",
        "formatted": "-0.27%",
        "formula": "comparable_quarter_change*100",
        "inputs": [
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
        ],
        "label": "Diluted share-count change, year over year",
        "metric": "diluted_share_count_yoy_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": "2026-07-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": -0.2678810608090054
      },
      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:quarterly_net_income_yoy_pct",
        "formatted": "+32.01%",
        "formula": "comparable_quarter_change*100",
        "inputs": [
          "sec:net_income:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:net_income:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
        ],
        "label": "Quarterly net-income change, year over year",
        "metric": "quarterly_net_income_yoy_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": "2026-07-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 32.0106678199445
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      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:quarterly_diluted_eps_yoy_pct",
        "formatted": "+32.26%",
        "formula": "comparable_quarter_change*100",
        "inputs": [
          "sec:diluted_eps:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:diluted_eps:0001193125-26-436133:2025-09-30:2025-07-01"
        ],
        "label": "Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year",
        "metric": "quarterly_diluted_eps_yoy_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": "2026-07-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 32.258064516129025
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp",
        "formatted": "+17.67 pp",
        "formula": "asset-minus-QQQ_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions",
        "inputs": [
          "snapshot:daily_ohlcv",
          "benchmark:qqq_30_session_price_return"
        ],
        "label": "Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions",
        "metric": "relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": "2026-09-23",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/",
        "unit": "percentage_points",
        "value": 17.674875119778513
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      {
        "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp",
        "formatted": "+20.67 pp",
        "formula": "asset-minus-XLK_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions",
        "inputs": [
          "snapshot:daily_ohlcv",
          "benchmark:sector_30_session_price_return"
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        "label": "Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions",
        "metric": "relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": "2026-09-23",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK/history/",
        "unit": "percentage_points",
        "value": 20.673704499689304
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      {
        "caveat": "Enterprise value uses reported debt and cash only; consensus revenue is a forecast.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales",
        "formatted": "10.38×",
        "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/current_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue",
        "inputs": [
          "est:consensus_fy_revenue:yahoo",
          "calc:last_close",
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
        ],
        "label": "Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus)",
        "metric": "forward_ev_to_sales",
        "period_end": "2027-06-30",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "multiple",
        "value": 10.381541167753712
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      {
        "caveat": "Enterprise value uses reported debt and cash only (no leases or minorities).",
        "evidence_id": "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales",
        "formatted": "11.86×",
        "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/ttm_revenue",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ttm_revenue",
          "calc:last_close",
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
        ],
        "label": "EV / sales, trailing twelve months",
        "metric": "ev_to_ttm_sales",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "multiple",
        "value": 11.861792518600197
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      {
        "caveat": "Operating income is before tax, so one-off tax items do not distort it.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:ev_to_ttm_operating_income",
        "formatted": "25.18×",
        "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/ttm_operating_income",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ttm_operating_income",
          "calc:last_close",
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
        ],
        "label": "EV / operating income, trailing twelve months",
        "metric": "ev_to_ttm_operating_income",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "multiple",
        "value": 25.18189550346799
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      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:latest_quarter_gross_margin_pct",
        "formatted": "67.79%",
        "formula": "1-cost_of_sales/revenue, same quarter",
        "inputs": [
          "sec:revenue:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:cost_of_sales:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01"
        ],
        "label": "Gross margin, latest quarter",
        "metric": "latest_quarter_gross_margin_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": "2026-07-01",
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 67.79332242438691
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      {
        "caveat": "Cash less debt on one balance-sheet date; leases and investments are not included.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:net_cash",
        "formatted": "$29.03B",
        "formula": "cash-reported_debt, same balance-sheet date",
        "inputs": [
          "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
        ],
        "label": "Net cash (cash less reported debt)",
        "metric": "net_cash",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "USD",
        "value": 29028000000.0
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Positive: the market prices in more growth or margin than the middle DCF assumptions.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:market_ev_vs_dcf_mid_pct",
        "formatted": "371.91%",
        "formula": "market_enterprise_value/middle_dcf_enterprise_value-1",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales",
          "calc:ttm_revenue",
          "scenario:operating_dcf_mid"
        ],
        "label": "Market EV vs. the middle DCF case",
        "metric": "market_ev_vs_dcf_mid_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 371.9055801547752
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Growth the analyst consensus expects this fiscal year; a forecast.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:consensus_fy_revenue_growth_pct",
        "formatted": "+19.29%",
        "formula": "current_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue/last_fiscal_year_revenue-1",
        "inputs": [
          "est:consensus_fy_revenue:yahoo"
        ],
        "label": "Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year",
        "metric": "consensus_fy_revenue_growth_pct",
        "period_end": "2027-06-30",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 19.287617513312185
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Enterprise value on next fiscal year's consensus revenue; a forecast-based multiple.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:next_fy_ev_to_sales",
        "formatted": "8.63×",
        "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/next_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue",
        "inputs": [
          "est:consensus_next_fy_revenue:yahoo",
          "calc:last_close",
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
        ],
        "label": "EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus",
        "metric": "next_fy_ev_to_sales",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "multiple",
        "value": 8.634712352079813
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      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:peer_median_next_fy_ev_to_sales",
        "formatted": "4.27×",
        "formula": "median of 2 same-session peers",
        "inputs": [
          "peer:GOOGL:ev_to_next_fy_consensus_sales",
          "peer:AMZN:ev_to_next_fy_consensus_sales"
        ],
        "label": "Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year",
        "metric": "peer_median_next_fy_ev_to_sales",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/",
        "unit": "multiple",
        "value": 4.271999352471923
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Positive is a premium to the peer median; peers differ in growth and margins.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:next_fy_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "formatted": "102.12%",
        "formula": "subject_multiple/peer_median-1",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:next_fy_ev_to_sales",
          "calc:peer_median_next_fy_ev_to_sales"
        ],
        "label": "Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median",
        "metric": "next_fy_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 102.12344711811525
      },
      {
        "caveat": null,
        "evidence_id": "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales",
        "formatted": "5.23×",
        "formula": "median of 2 same-session peers",
        "inputs": [
          "peer:GOOGL:ev_to_fy_consensus_sales",
          "peer:AMZN:ev_to_fy_consensus_sales"
        ],
        "label": "Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus)",
        "metric": "peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/",
        "unit": "multiple",
        "value": 5.231555108737862
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Positive is a premium to the peer median; peers differ in growth and margins.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "formatted": "98.44%",
        "formula": "subject_multiple/peer_median-1",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:forward_ev_to_sales",
          "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales"
        ],
        "label": "Forward EV / sales vs. peer median",
        "metric": "forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 98.44082594894637
      },
      {
        "caveat": "This fiscal year's revenue at which today's EV equals the peer median forward multiple.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:forward_revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple",
        "formatted": "$785.51B",
        "formula": "enterprise_value/peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:forward_ev_to_sales",
          "est:consensus_fy_revenue:yahoo",
          "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales"
        ],
        "label": "This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple",
        "metric": "forward_revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "USD",
        "value": 785513795361.2941
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Positive: the forecast must be beaten by this much to justify today's EV at the peer forward multiple.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:forward_revenue_gap_to_peer_multiple_pct",
        "formatted": "98.44%",
        "formula": "forward_revenue_needed/forecast_revenue-1",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:forward_revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple",
          "est:consensus_fy_revenue:yahoo"
        ],
        "label": "Needed revenue vs. the forecast",
        "metric": "forward_revenue_gap_to_peer_multiple_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 98.44082594894634
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Trailing free cash flow over today's enterprise value; stock compensation not deducted.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_yield_pct",
        "formatted": "1.46%",
        "formula": "ttm_free_cashflow/enterprise_value*100",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ttm_free_cashflow",
          "calc:last_close",
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
        ],
        "label": "Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value",
        "metric": "ttm_fcf_yield_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 1.4589999375620193
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Free cash flow after treating stock compensation as a cash cost.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_yield_pct",
        "formatted": "1.15%",
        "formula": "(ttm_free_cashflow-ttm_share_based_compensation)/enterprise_value*100",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ttm_free_cashflow",
          "calc:ttm_share_based_compensation",
          "calc:last_close",
          "sec:diluted_shares:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
          "sec:cash:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:current_securities:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant",
          "sec:total_debt:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:instant"
        ],
        "label": "Free-cash-flow yield after stock compensation",
        "metric": "ttm_fcf_after_sbc_yield_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-09-30",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 1.153460914328223
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Steady free-cash-flow margin today's enterprise value assumes on the forecast growth path; compare with the trailing free-cash-flow margin.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct",
        "formatted": "64.57%",
        "formula": "market_ev/discounted_value_per_unit_fcf_margin(forecast_growth_fading_to_3pct, wacc10pct, terminal2pct)",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales",
          "calc:ttm_revenue",
          "calc:ntm_revenue_growth_pct"
        ],
        "label": "Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies",
        "metric": "dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/",
        "unit": "percent",
        "value": 64.56665965713604
      },
      {
        "caveat": "Far from 1, a sales multiple is not like for like with these peers: part of the gap is margin.",
        "evidence_id": "calc:net_margin_vs_peer_median_ratio",
        "formatted": "1.23×",
        "formula": "subject_ttm_net_margin/median_peer_ttm_net_margin",
        "inputs": [
          "calc:ttm_net_margin_pct",
          "peer:GOOGL:ttm:net_income",
          "peer:GOOGL:ttm:revenue",
          "peer:AMZN:ttm:net_income",
          "peer:AMZN:ttm:revenue"
        ],
        "label": "Net margin vs. peer median",
        "metric": "net_margin_vs_peer_median_ratio",
        "period_end": "2026-11-04",
        "period_start": null,
        "price_asof": null,
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    "customer_markdown": "# Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)\n\n**Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nData as of 05 Nov 2026, 09:13 UTC. Last completed session: 2026-11-04. Incomplete-session prices are excluded.\n\n**Confidence: normal.**\n\nCompany report on 2027-01-27 — in 83 days. (consensus EPS 4.856; revenue $96,699.6M) [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/)\n\n**Blind spots:** this report lacks management call transcript.\n\n**How the rating is set:** the rule gives Hold (valuation points rich; revenue expected to grow fast this year).\n\n## The quick read\n\nHold: the forward sales multiple against peers is the decisive gap, with Microsoft priced far above the peer median. Strong cloud demand and the latest quarter’s growth support the business, but do not erase the premium. The scheduled report could change the view if company guidance and evidence on Azure capacity deployment support durable growth and improving cash generation; weaker delivery would reinforce caution.\n\n[AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## At a glance\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $555.80 | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +18.80% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 49.76% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 29.02× | Price 2026-11-04; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $59.96B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions | +17.67 pp | 2026-09-23 to 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/) |\n| Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions | +20.67 pp | 2026-09-23 to 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK/history/) |\n| Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions | -6.69% | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nAgents and infrastructure led reported segment revenue and growth contribution; Azure was the largest product category and its growth made the strongest contribution. Microsoft Three Six Five Cloud also expanded, while Windows OEM and devices weakened; productivity and server licensing and Xbox also declined. These reconciled categories describe the same revenue base and should not be summed across partitions. The supplied figures do not separate acquired growth from organic growth. Geographic revenue grew both in the United States and outside it, with domestic growth faster.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n### Reportable Segments\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Agents And Infra | $76.80B | 83.22% | +24.52% | +19.47 pp |\n| Devices And Consumer | $15.48B | 16.78% | -3.23% | -0.67 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n### Product Categories\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Azure | $33.16B | 35.94% | +48.16% | +13.88 pp |\n| Frontier And Support Services | $2.11B | 2.28% | +4.25% | +0.11 pp |\n| Industry Solutions | $5.34B | 5.78% | +9.05% | +0.57 pp |\n| Microsoft Three Six Five Cloud | $27.78B | 30.10% | +17.24% | +5.26 pp |\n| Productivity And Server Licensing | $8.41B | 9.11% | -3.12% | -0.35 pp |\n| Search And Advertising | $6.55B | 7.10% | +10.30% | +0.79 pp |\n| Windows OEM And Devices | $3.55B | 3.85% | -21.97% | -1.29 pp |\n| XBOX | $5.38B | 5.83% | -2.34% | -0.17 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n### Geographies\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| United States | $49.46B | 53.60% | +23.41% | +12.08 pp |\n| Outside the United States | $42.82B | 46.40% | +13.90% | +6.73 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe forward sales multiple is far above the peer median, a premium that requires sustained growth and strong profitability; Microsoft’s broad cloud and productivity platform differs from peers such as Amazon, whose retail and lower-margin mix complicates comparison. The indicative trailing earnings multiple is about the peer range’s upper end, but its EPS bridge is approximate and not forward earnings. The reverse DCF implies a steady free-cash-flow margin far above trailing margins both before and after treating stock compensation as a cash cost, making that burden demanding. The sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation; value is highly sensitive to growth decay, persistent margin, aggregate net reinvestment, WACC and terminal assumptions. No dynamic margin model or reconciled equity bridge is available.\n\n[AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [AMZN filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Diluted EPS, trailing twelve months (sum of reported periods) | $19.15 per share | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 29.02× | Price 2026-11-04; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Earnings yield, trailing twelve months | 3.45% | Price 2026-11-04; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| EV / operating income, trailing twelve months | 25.18× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| EV / sales, trailing twelve months | 11.86× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 10.38× | 2027-06-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales | 5.51× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| EV / sales vs. peer median | 115.27% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Peer median earnings multiple | 18.30× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Earnings multiple vs. peer median | 58.63% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year | +19.29% | 2027-06-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus) | 5.23× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| Forward EV / sales vs. peer median | 98.44% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple | $785.51B | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus | 8.63× | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year | 4.27× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median | 102.12% | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value | 1.46% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield after stock compensation | 1.15% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Net margin vs. peer median | 1.23× | 2026-11-04 | [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000040/0001018724-26-000040-index.html) · [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) · [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Dividend yield, trailing twelve months | 0.67% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies | 64.57% | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin | 17.31% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation | 13.68% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Market EV vs. the middle DCF case | 371.91% | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n\n**Verdict:** on this fiscal year's consensus revenue, MSFT trades at 10.38× forward sales, a 98% premium to the peer median of 5.23× (on trailing sales: 11.86×, a 115% premium). At the peer forward multiple, today's price needs about $785.51B of revenue this year, 98% above the forecast. On next fiscal year's consensus it trades at 8.63×, a 102% premium to the peer median of 4.27×. On the forecast growth path, today's enterprise value implies a steady free-cash-flow margin of 65%, against 17% over the last twelve months (14% after stock compensation). Free cash flow yields 1.5% of enterprise value (1.2% after stock compensation).\n\n### Bear, base and bull on this year's revenue\n\n| Case | Revenue | Basis | EV / sales | Multiple | Price | Change vs. last close |\n|---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---:|\n| Bear | $356.26B | forecast less 10% | 8.82× | today's less 15% | $426.10 | -23.3% |\n| Base | $395.84B | forecast | 10.38× | today's | $555.80 | +0.0% |\n| Bull | $435.43B | forecast plus 10% | 11.94× | today's plus 15% | $702.05 | +26.3% |\n\nThe peer sales multiple differs from this company's by more than 25%, which margins can explain, so these cases stay on today's multiple instead of assuming it converges.\n\nTrailing EPS is the sum of reported periods, so share-count changes make it approximate.\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: chosen by business model for this company; business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| MSFT | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 29.02× | 11.86× | 10.38× | 41.17% | 1.37× |\n| [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 15.09× | 7.29× | 6.87× | 50.03% | 0.76× |\n| [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 21.51× | 3.73× | 3.59× | 16.90% | 1.25× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nStock compensation is a noncash operating-cash-flow adjustment, while repurchases are a separate financing use; treating compensation as a cash cost further reduces the observed free-cash-flow margin. The latest quarter also had heavy capital spending. Filing data show large operating earnings alongside substantial research and development costs; working-capital and other noncash adjustments remain part of operating cash flow.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Revenue, trailing twelve months | $346.44B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Net income, trailing twelve months | $142.63B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow, trailing twelve months | $195.88B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $135.92B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $59.96B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow / net income | 1.37× | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Share-based compensation, trailing twelve months | $12.56B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Share repurchases, trailing twelve months | $21.00B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Repurchases / free cash flow | 35.03% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Diluted share-count change, year over year | -0.27% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Quarterly net-income change, year over year | +32.01% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year | +32.26% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n\nFree cash flow here means operating cash flow less cash capital expenditure; it does not remove stock compensation or adjust for acquisitions and leases. A reference to adjustments in a filing is a review topic, not an automatically verified normalization.\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nThe valuation leaves Microsoft exposed if cloud demand, capacity deployment or margins disappoint: the implied steady cash-flow margin is far above delivered trailing margins, including after stock compensation. Capital spending is already substantial, and weaker returns on that investment could pressure cash generation despite strong reported earnings. Devices and consumer segment revenue declined, while several product categories weakened. The recent sharp share move is not explained by the available associated news, so it should not be taken as confirmation of improving fundamentals.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe latest filing reports strong revenue and earnings, while the outlook disclosure says management will provide forward guidance with the scheduled report; numerical guidance is not supplied here. A secondary calendar lists that report, but its timing is not confirmed by a primary company source. The next report should confirm or refute Azure demand, capacity deployment and whether investment is converting into cash. A separate large recent move lacks explanatory news in the available evidence.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm)\n\n### Into the report on 2027-01-27\n\nWhat the report will be measured against.\n\n| Measure | Reading | Basis | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Consensus revenue for the quarter | $96.70B | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $4.86 | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/) |\n| Gross margin, latest quarter | 67.79% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Net cash (cash less reported debt) | $29.03B | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this quarter, last 30 days | +0.7% (8 raised, 7 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this fiscal year, last 30 days | +1.3% (10 raised, 7 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) |\n| Insider open-market trades, last 90 days | bought $0.00, sold $68.14M | SEC Form 4 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=789019&type=4) |\n\n**What would change the view:** revenue above the $96.70B consensus with full-year guidance held would argue for a positive view; revenue below it or lower full-year guidance for a negative one.\n\n**Triggers** (computed from the figures above):\n\n| What | Threshold | Effect |\n|---|---|---|\n| Quarterly revenue | above $96.70B at the 2027-01-27 report | points to the upside |\n| Quarterly EPS | above $4.86 at the 2027-01-27 report | points to the upside |\n| Gross margin | below 67.8% at the 2027-01-27 report | points to the downside |\n\n### Around the next report\n\nPrice paths if the report on 2027-01-27 (in 83 days) moves the stock the way past results did. Past reactions are observed history.\n\n| Scenario | Price | Change vs. last close | Basis |\n|---|---:|---:|---|\n| Typical past rise | $598.18 | +7.6% | median of 3 past rises |\n| Largest past rise | $641.99 | +15.5% | largest of 3 past rises |\n| Typical past fall | $533.96 | -3.9% | median of 5 past falls |\n| Largest past fall | $500.26 | -10.0% | largest of 5 past falls |\n\nPast reactions to results releases (close before the release to close after it):\n\n| Release | Timing | Reaction session | Move |\n|---|---|---|---:|\n| [2026-10-28](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/0001193125-26-436122-index.html) | after the close | 2026-10-29 | -0.2% |\n| [2026-07-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323632/0001193125-26-323632-index.html) | after the close | 2026-07-30 | +15.5% |\n| [2026-04-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526191457/0001193125-26-191457-index.html) | after the close | 2026-04-30 | -3.9% |\n| [2026-01-28](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526027198/0001193125-26-027198-index.html) | after the close | 2026-01-29 | -10.0% |\n| [2025-10-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312525256310/0001193125-25-256310-index.html) | after the close | 2025-10-30 | -2.9% |\n| [2025-07-30](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025100226/0000950170-25-100226-index.html) | after the close | 2025-07-31 | +3.9% |\n| [2025-04-30](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025061032/0000950170-25-061032-index.html) | after the close | 2025-05-01 | +7.6% |\n| [2025-01-29](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000095017025010484/0000950170-25-010484-index.html) | after the close | 2025-01-30 | -6.2% |\n\n### Recent company news\n\nHeadlines from news providers, as published; not verified company disclosures.\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Microsoft, SpaceX, Marvell Technology and Preformed Line Products](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d50d49bfb158ad6462d17b4b3901572f290a61378ded5abf6a98343449b3a7fb) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Microsoft declines Nscale Texas expansion ahead of $35 bln IPO - report](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bbe2a1e53ae33d76f29090c9df101ef20f8fab47e6cf57ae43bd291049b8af1c) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Why Did AAPL, MSFT, AMC Stocks Surge To 52-Week Highs?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a283098e20c9eb92ebac38ddc8950fac405bb44e783d5bd5911335ec17de853a) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Could Be Undervalued After Its 74% Five Year Run](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d896c632f2d24f4c685baecd99cd3f04890d0fdb15880d52b20480ffc2714608) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [IREN Stock Drops After Report Says It’s Behind Microsoft’s AI Spending Delay, As Investors Turn To Earnings](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=f12171a561416ff57fdc9f997208bb0096dce9f69421de2aad47348690d0c85b) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-05 — [Dow Jones Futures Rise, Techs Fall; Apple, Microsoft, Amazon Flash Buy Signals In Postelection Rally](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=2e030c1da30d95ea5d20a342e1db685e178e99be4e528f3dd64712c63336f195) (Finnhub)\n\n### Largest daily moves, last ninety sessions\n\nWith company news published from three days before to one day after each move; no news means the available feed does not explain it.\n\n| Session | Move | News around it |\n|---|---:|---|\n| 2026-07-30 | +15.5% | [Company results release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323632/0001193125-26-323632-index.html) (2026-07-29) |\n| 2026-11-04 | +6.7% | [The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Microsoft, SpaceX, Marvell Technology and Preformed Line](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d50d49bfb158ad6462d17b4b3901572f290a61378ded5abf6a98343449b3a7fb) (2026-11-05); [Microsoft declines Nscale Texas expansion ahead of $35 bln IPO - report](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bbe2a1e53ae33d76f29090c9df101ef20f8fab47e6cf57ae43bd291049b8af1c) (2026-11-05); [Why Did AAPL, MSFT, AMC Stocks Surge To 52-Week Highs?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a283098e20c9eb92ebac38ddc8950fac405bb44e783d5bd5911335ec17de853a) (2026-11-05) |\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA more constructive view would require primary guidance and subsequent reported evidence that Azure demand is being served, growth remains broad enough to offset weaker categories, and cash generation strengthens relative to earnings after the investment cycle. A more cautious view would follow guidance or results showing slower cloud demand, sustained capacity spending without commensurate cash flow, or further product weakness. Analyst estimate revisions are mixed and secondary; they do not substitute for company disclosures or realized operating results.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## Operating DCF: explicit assumptions\n\nYear-one revenue growth from the next twelve months' consensus revenue against the trailing twelve, taken in three cases (half of it, all of it and one and a half times it); the excess over 3% halves each later year; trailing free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation persists and is discounted as is; terminal growth 2%, five annual periods, WACC 8-12%. Scenario inputs, not management guidance, an estimated market WACC or calibrated forecasts.\n\nNo dynamic margin model, explicit D&A/capex/NWC schedule, acquisitions or calibrated terminal economics. Net reinvestment is an aggregate assumption; no claim of intrinsic fair value or a dated price target.\n\nHistorical operating basis: 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30. This run rate is assumed to apply at the price date; no partial-year/stub-period adjustment is made. Forecast periods below are hypothetical annual steps, not fiscal guidance.\n\n| Assumed annual revenue growth | Assumed WACC | Conditional enterprise value | Terminal share of EV |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 11% in year one, fading to 4% | 8% | $971.18B | 76.0% |\n| 11% in year one, fading to 4% | 10% | $725.92B | 69.6% |\n| 11% in year one, fading to 4% | 12% | $578.88B | 63.8% |\n| 22% in year one, fading to 4% | 8% | $1.17T | 76.6% |\n| 22% in year one, fading to 4% | 10% | $870.82B | 70.3% |\n| 22% in year one, fading to 4% | 12% | $692.81B | 64.6% |\n| 33% in year one, fading to 5% | 8% | $1.39T | 77.2% |\n| 33% in year one, fading to 5% | 10% | $1.03T | 71.0% |\n| 33% in year one, fading to 5% | 12% | $820.38B | 65.4% |\n\n### Illustrative cash-flow path\n\nThis displays the assumed middle cell for auditability; it is not a preferred forecast.\n\n| Hypothetical year | Revenue | Free cash flow after stock compensation | Discounted |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 1 | $423.75B | $57.98B | $52.71B |\n| 2 | $477.38B | $65.32B | $53.98B |\n| 3 | $514.75B | $70.43B | $52.91B |\n| 4 | $542.62B | $74.24B | $50.71B |\n| 5 | $565.44B | $77.36B | $48.04B |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/)\n\n## Thesis monitoring checklist\n\nObserved baselines are reference points, not automatic trading triggers.\n\n| What to check | Observed baseline | Direction associated with more risk |\n|---|---|---|\n| Does forecast sales growth narrow the valuation premium? | Forward EV / sales vs. peer median: 98.44% | higher |\n| Does cash flow after stock compensation improve? | Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation: 13.68% | lower |\n| Does company guidance reveal capacity or demand constraints? | New disclosure; no numeric threshold | new disclosure |\n\n## Conditional earnings and valuation sensitivity\n\nThese are mechanical assumptions applied to the current arithmetic EPS bridge and indicative multiple. They have no forecast date and do not predict the report horizon. They are not fair values, price targets, forecasts or calibrated probabilities; the unchanged-input cell simply reproduces the current closing price.\n\n| Assumed EPS change | Assumed multiple change | Conditional price | Change vs. last close |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| -10% | -15% | $425.19 | -23.5% |\n| -10% | +0% | $500.22 | -10.0% |\n| -10% | +15% | $575.25 | +3.5% |\n| +0% | -15% | $472.43 | -15.0% |\n| +0% | +0% | $555.80 | +0.0% |\n| +0% | +15% | $639.17 | +15.0% |\n| +10% | -15% | $519.67 | -6.5% |\n| +10% | +0% | $611.38 | +10.0% |\n| +10% | +15% | $703.09 | +26.5% |\n\n## Event calendar: secondary schedule\n\nDates below are provider schedules, not independently confirmed company announcements.\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2027-01-27; financial period ending not supplied by source. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/).\n\n## What this report does and does not establish\n\nRead once, applies throughout: every number links to its source; the narrative is model interpretation. Guidance and consensus are forecasts, past price reactions are history, multiples and DCF cases are context — none of it is a fair value, a price target or a probability of profit.\n\n| Research dimension | Evidence status |\n|---|---|\n| Valuation | P/E on reported earnings |\n| Cash generation | from SEC filings, matched periods |\n| Earnings quality | adjustments read from SEC filings |\n| Benchmark comparison | price returns vs. QQQ and sector ETF |\n| Sensitivity | stated assumptions, not forecasts |\n| Competitive position | limited fixed peer context |\n| Next event | data-provider calendar |\n| Business mix | primary reconciled |\n| Discounted cash flow | stated assumptions, see table |\n\nThe API response carries each figure's source, period and calculation. Benchmarks use price returns, not dividend-reinvested returns. Trading sessions are not calendar days.",
    "editorial_markdown": "# Strong cloud growth, but valuation leaves little room\n\n**MSFT · Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nSource snapshot: 05 Nov 2026, 09:13 UTC. Last completed market session: 2026-11-04.\n\nHold: the forward sales multiple against peers is the decisive gap, with Microsoft priced far above the peer median. Strong cloud demand and the latest quarter’s growth support the business, but do not erase the premium. The scheduled report could change the view if company guidance and evidence on Azure capacity deployment support durable growth and improving cash generation; weaker delivery would reinforce caution.\n\n[AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $555.80 | 2026-11-04 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +18.80% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 49.76% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 29.02× | Price 2026-11-04; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $59.96B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nAgents and infrastructure led reported segment revenue and growth contribution; Azure was the largest product category and its growth made the strongest contribution. Microsoft Three Six Five Cloud also expanded, while Windows OEM and devices weakened; productivity and server licensing and Xbox also declined. These reconciled categories describe the same revenue base and should not be summed across partitions. The supplied figures do not separate acquired growth from organic growth. Geographic revenue grew both in the United States and outside it, with domestic growth faster.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n### Reportable Segments\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Agents And Infra | $76.80B | 83.22% | +24.52% | +19.47 pp |\n| Devices And Consumer | $15.48B | 16.78% | -3.23% | -0.67 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n### Product Categories\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Azure | $33.16B | 35.94% | +48.16% | +13.88 pp |\n| Frontier And Support Services | $2.11B | 2.28% | +4.25% | +0.11 pp |\n| Industry Solutions | $5.34B | 5.78% | +9.05% | +0.57 pp |\n| Microsoft Three Six Five Cloud | $27.78B | 30.10% | +17.24% | +5.26 pp |\n| Productivity And Server Licensing | $8.41B | 9.11% | -3.12% | -0.35 pp |\n| Search And Advertising | $6.55B | 7.10% | +10.30% | +0.79 pp |\n| Windows OEM And Devices | $3.55B | 3.85% | -21.97% | -1.29 pp |\n| XBOX | $5.38B | 5.83% | -2.34% | -0.17 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n### Geographies\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| United States | $49.46B | 53.60% | +23.41% | +12.08 pp |\n| Outside the United States | $42.82B | 46.40% | +13.90% | +6.73 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe forward sales multiple is far above the peer median, a premium that requires sustained growth and strong profitability; Microsoft’s broad cloud and productivity platform differs from peers such as Amazon, whose retail and lower-margin mix complicates comparison. The indicative trailing earnings multiple is about the peer range’s upper end, but its EPS bridge is approximate and not forward earnings. The reverse DCF implies a steady free-cash-flow margin far above trailing margins both before and after treating stock compensation as a cash cost, making that burden demanding. The sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation; value is highly sensitive to growth decay, persistent margin, aggregate net reinvestment, WACC and terminal assumptions. No dynamic margin model or reconciled equity bridge is available.\n\n[AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/analysis/) · [GOOGL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOGL/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [AMZN filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) · [AMZN consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history/)\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: chosen by business model for this company; business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| MSFT | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 29.02× | 11.86× | 10.38× | 41.17% | 1.37× |\n| [GOOGL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/0001652044-26-000018-index.html) | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 15.09× | 7.29× | 6.87× | 50.03% | 0.76× |\n| [AMZN](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000004/0001018724-26-000004-index.html) | 2026-11-04 | 2026-09-30 | 21.51× | 3.73× | 3.59× | 16.90% | 1.25× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nStock compensation is a noncash operating-cash-flow adjustment, while repurchases are a separate financing use; treating compensation as a cash cost further reduces the observed free-cash-flow margin. The latest quarter also had heavy capital spending. Filing data show large operating earnings alongside substantial research and development costs; working-capital and other noncash adjustments remain part of operating cash flow.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html)\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nThe valuation leaves Microsoft exposed if cloud demand, capacity deployment or margins disappoint: the implied steady cash-flow margin is far above delivered trailing margins, including after stock compensation. Capital spending is already substantial, and weaker returns on that investment could pressure cash generation despite strong reported earnings. Devices and consumer segment revenue declined, while several product categories weakened. The recent sharp share move is not explained by the available associated news, so it should not be taken as confirmation of improving fundamentals.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe latest filing reports strong revenue and earnings, while the outlook disclosure says management will provide forward guidance with the scheduled report; numerical guidance is not supplied here. A secondary calendar lists that report, but its timing is not confirmed by a primary company source. The next report should confirm or refute Azure demand, capacity deployment and whether investment is converting into cash. A separate large recent move lacks explanatory news in the available evidence.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm)\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA more constructive view would require primary guidance and subsequent reported evidence that Azure demand is being served, growth remains broad enough to offset weaker categories, and cash generation strengthens relative to earnings after the investment cycle. A more cautious view would follow guidance or results showing slower cloud demand, sustained capacity spending without commensurate cash flow, or further product weakness. Analyst estimate revisions are mixed and secondary; they do not substitute for company disclosures or realized operating results.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436122/msft-ex99_1.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/0001193125-26-436133-index.html) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526436133/msft-20260930.htm)\n\n## Sources and scope\n\nAI-assisted research using published financial evidence and labelled observed market/provider context. Indicative EPS valuation is arithmetic and approximate. Schedules and forecasts are not reported outcomes. Sensitivities are hypothetical, not price targets. The structured report retains the full evidence and missing dimensions.",
    "headline": "Strong cloud growth, but valuation leaves little room",
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        "text": "The valuation leaves Microsoft exposed if cloud demand, capacity deployment or margins disappoint: the implied steady cash-flow margin is far above delivered trailing margins, including after stock compensation. Capital spending is already substantial, and weaker returns on that investment could pressure cash generation despite strong reported earnings. Devices and consumer segment revenue declined, while several product categories weakened. The recent sharp share move is not explained by the available associated news, so it should not be taken as confirmation of improving fundamentals.",
        "title": "The strongest counter-case"
      },
      {
        "evidence_ids": [
          "calc:earnings_move_median_abs_pct",
          "calc:earnings_move_max_up_pct",
          "calc:earnings_move_max_down_pct",
          "doc:87555c67fc1998c8764a5392"
        ],
        "key": "catalysts",
        "text": "The latest filing reports strong revenue and earnings, while the outlook disclosure says management will provide forward guidance with the scheduled report; numerical guidance is not supplied here. A secondary calendar lists that report, but its timing is not confirmed by a primary company source. The next report should confirm or refute Azure demand, capacity deployment and whether investment is converting into cash. A separate large recent move lacks explanatory news in the available evidence.",
        "title": "Events and evidence to watch"
      },
      {
        "evidence_ids": [
          "doc:87555c67fc1998c8764a5392",
          "calc:ttm_free_cashflow",
          "mix:MSFT:product_categories:AzureMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
          "mix:MSFT:product_categories:WindowsOEMAndDevicesMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30"
        ],
        "key": "change_conditions",
        "text": "A more constructive view would require primary guidance and subsequent reported evidence that Azure demand is being served, growth remains broad enough to offset weaker categories, and cash generation strengthens relative to earnings after the investment cycle. A more cautious view would follow guidance or results showing slower cloud demand, sustained capacity spending without commensurate cash flow, or further product weakness. Analyst estimate revisions are mixed and secondary; they do not substitute for company disclosures or realized operating results.",
        "title": "What would change our view"
      }
    ],
    "sensitivity": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": -23.5,
          "conditional_price": 425.1869906616211,
          "eps_change_pct": -10.0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": -15.0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": -9.999999999999986,
          "conditional_price": 500.2199890136719,
          "eps_change_pct": -10.0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": 0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": 3.500000000000014,
          "conditional_price": 575.2529873657227,
          "eps_change_pct": -10.0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": 15.0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": -15.000000000000002,
          "conditional_price": 472.42998962402345,
          "eps_change_pct": 0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": -15.0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": 0.0,
          "conditional_price": 555.7999877929688,
          "eps_change_pct": 0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": 0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": 14.999999999999991,
          "conditional_price": 639.169985961914,
          "eps_change_pct": 0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": 15.0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": -6.499999999999984,
          "conditional_price": 519.6729885864258,
          "eps_change_pct": 10.0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": -15.0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": 10.000000000000009,
          "conditional_price": 611.3799865722657,
          "eps_change_pct": 10.0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": 0
        },
        {
          "change_from_close_pct": 26.500000000000014,
          "conditional_price": 703.0869845581055,
          "eps_change_pct": 10.0,
          "evidence_ids": [
            "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic",
            "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
            "calc:last_close"
          ],
          "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)",
          "multiple_change_pct": 15.0
        }
      ],
      "status": "HYPOTHETICAL_NOT_TARGETS"
    },
    "summary": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales",
        "sec:revenue:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "mix:MSFT:product_categories:AzureMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30"
      ],
      "text": "Hold: the forward sales multiple against peers is the decisive gap, with Microsoft priced far above the peer median. Strong cloud demand and the latest quarter’s growth support the business, but do not erase the premium. The scheduled report could change the view if company guidance and evidence on Azure capacity deployment support durable growth and improving cash generation; weaker delivery would reinforce caution."
    },
    "version": "research-presentation-v2",
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "question": "Does forecast sales growth narrow the valuation premium?",
        "risk_direction": "higher"
      },
      {
        "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct",
        "question": "Does cash flow after stock compensation improve?",
        "risk_direction": "lower"
      },
      {
        "evidence_id": "doc:87555c67fc1998c8764a5392",
        "question": "Does company guidance reveal capacity or demand constraints?",
        "risk_direction": "new_disclosure"
      }
    ]
  },
  "memo": {
    "business_drivers": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "mix:MSFT:reportable_segments:AgentsAndInfraMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
        "mix:MSFT:reportable_segments:DevicesAndConsumerMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
        "mix:MSFT:product_categories:AzureMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
        "mix:MSFT:product_categories:MicrosoftThreeSixFiveCloudMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30"
      ],
      "text": "Agents and infrastructure led reported segment revenue and growth contribution; Azure was the largest product category and its growth made the strongest contribution. Microsoft Three Six Five Cloud also expanded, while Windows OEM and devices weakened; productivity and server licensing and Xbox also declined. These reconciled categories describe the same revenue base and should not be summed across partitions. The supplied figures do not separate acquired growth from organic growth. Geographic revenue grew both in the United States and outside it, with domestic growth faster."
    },
    "catalysts": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "calc:earnings_move_median_abs_pct",
        "calc:earnings_move_max_up_pct",
        "calc:earnings_move_max_down_pct",
        "doc:87555c67fc1998c8764a5392"
      ],
      "text": "The latest filing reports strong revenue and earnings, while the outlook disclosure says management will provide forward guidance with the scheduled report; numerical guidance is not supplied here. A secondary calendar lists that report, but its timing is not confirmed by a primary company source. The next report should confirm or refute Azure demand, capacity deployment and whether investment is converting into cash. A separate large recent move lacks explanatory news in the available evidence."
    },
    "change_conditions": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "doc:87555c67fc1998c8764a5392",
        "calc:ttm_free_cashflow",
        "mix:MSFT:product_categories:AzureMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30",
        "mix:MSFT:product_categories:WindowsOEMAndDevicesMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30"
      ],
      "text": "A more constructive view would require primary guidance and subsequent reported evidence that Azure demand is being served, growth remains broad enough to offset weaker categories, and cash generation strengthens relative to earnings after the investment cycle. A more cautious view would follow guidance or results showing slower cloud demand, sustained capacity spending without commensurate cash flow, or further product weakness. Analyst estimate revisions are mixed and secondary; they do not substitute for company disclosures or realized operating results."
    },
    "earnings_quality": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow",
        "calc:ttm_net_income",
        "calc:ttm_cash_conversion",
        "calc:ttm_free_cashflow"
      ],
      "text": "Stock compensation is a noncash operating-cash-flow adjustment, while repurchases are a separate financing use; treating compensation as a cash cost further reduces the observed free-cash-flow margin. The latest quarter also had heavy capital spending. Filing data show large operating earnings alongside substantial research and development costs; working-capital and other noncash adjustments remain part of operating cash flow."
    },
    "headline": "Strong cloud growth, but valuation leaves little room",
    "rating": "Hold",
    "risk_case": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct",
        "calc:ttm_fcf_margin_pct",
        "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct",
        "mix:MSFT:reportable_segments:DevicesAndConsumerMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30"
      ],
      "text": "The valuation leaves Microsoft exposed if cloud demand, capacity deployment or margins disappoint: the implied steady cash-flow margin is far above delivered trailing margins, including after stock compensation. Capital spending is already substantial, and weaker returns on that investment could pressure cash generation despite strong reported earnings. Devices and consumer segment revenue declined, while several product categories weakened. The recent sharp share move is not explained by the available associated news, so it should not be taken as confirmation of improving fundamentals."
    },
    "summary": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales",
        "sec:revenue:0001193125-26-436133:2026-09-30:2026-07-01",
        "mix:MSFT:product_categories:AzureMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30"
      ],
      "text": "Hold: the forward sales multiple against peers is the decisive gap, with Microsoft priced far above the peer median. Strong cloud demand and the latest quarter’s growth support the business, but do not erase the premium. The scheduled report could change the view if company guidance and evidence on Azure capacity deployment support durable growth and improving cash generation; weaker delivery would reinforce caution."
    },
    "valuation": {
      "evidence_ids": [
        "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct",
        "calc:indicative_price_to_eps",
        "peer:AMZN:indicative_pe"
      ],
      "text": "The forward sales multiple is far above the peer median, a premium that requires sustained growth and strong profitability; Microsoft’s broad cloud and productivity platform differs from peers such as Amazon, whose retail and lower-margin mix complicates comparison. The indicative trailing earnings multiple is about the peer range’s upper end, but its EPS bridge is approximate and not forward earnings. The reverse DCF implies a steady free-cash-flow margin far above trailing margins both before and after treating stock compensation as a cash cost, making that burden demanding. The sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation; value is highly sensitive to growth decay, persistent margin, aggregate net reinvestment, WACC and terminal assumptions. No dynamic margin model or reconciled equity bridge is available."
    },
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct",
        "question": "Does forecast sales growth narrow the valuation premium?",
        "risk_direction": "higher"
      },
      {
        "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct",
        "question": "Does cash flow after stock compensation improve?",
        "risk_direction": "lower"
      },
      {
        "evidence_id": "doc:87555c67fc1998c8764a5392",
        "question": "Does company guidance reveal capacity or demand constraints?",
        "risk_direction": "new_disclosure"
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    },
    "close": 555.8,
    "method": "Simple moving averages; RSI and average true range use 14-session Wilder smoothing. Daily bars from the report's source snapshot; dividends are not adjusted, and a split inside the window blocks the report. This section is computed, not written by the model.",
    "rows": [
      {
        "label": "Close vs 50-day average",
        "reading": "Above; average $515.34",
        "value": "+7.9%"
      },
      {
        "label": "Close vs 200-day average",
        "reading": "Above; average $438.99",
        "value": "+26.6%"
      },
      {
        "label": "50-day vs 200-day average",
        "reading": "50-day above 200-day",
        "value": "+17.4%"
      },
      {
        "label": "RSI (14)",
        "reading": "Scale 0–100; 30 and 70 are the usual bounds",
        "value": "64.3"
      },
      {
        "label": "Average true range (14)",
        "reading": "Typical daily range, share of price",
        "value": "2.67%"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume vs 20-session median",
        "reading": "Session 2026-11-04",
        "value": "2.52×"
      },
      {
        "label": "Return, 1 month / 3 months",
        "reading": "21 and 63 sessions",
        "value": "+5.0% / +11.2%"
      },
      {
        "label": "52-week range",
        "reading": "Close 0.6% below the high",
        "value": "$349.20–$559.15"
      },
      {
        "label": "20-session low / high",
        "reading": "Recent trading range",
        "value": "$504.96 / $559.15"
      }
    ],
    "session": "2026-11-04",
    "summary": "MSFT closed at $555.80, 7.9% above its 50-day average and 26.6% above its 200-day average; the 50-day average is above the 200-day. Over the last month the price rose 5.0%, over three months it rose 11.2%. RSI is 64.3, and the average daily range is about 3% of the price.",
    "unit": "session",
    "values": {
      "atr14_pct": 2.6697643804735294,
      "high_20": 559.1500244140625,
      "high_year": 559.1500244140625,
      "low_20": 504.9599914550781,
      "low_year": 349.20001220703125,
      "return_month_pct": 5.0066126225503105,
      "return_quarter_pct": 11.191134333759955,
      "rsi14": 64.32130651587819,
      "sma200": 438.9908993530273,
      "sma50": 515.3436010742188,
      "volume_ratio": 2.5229218492553227
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    "version": "technical-v1"
  },
  "analyst_consensus": {
    "actions": [
      {
        "action": "maintained",
        "date": "2026-10-29",
        "firm": "Wells Fargo",
        "from_grade": "Overweight",
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        "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/coverage/stock-market-today/2026/11/04/stock-market-today-nov-4-oracle-falls-on-canceled-7-billion-tencent-chip-leasing-deal/",
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        "title": "Stock Market Today: Dow Soars 1,569 Points In postelection Rally; Microsoft Leaps Nearly 7% Off New Entry",
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        "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-04-2026/card/chip-stocks-take-a-hit-YOCGYXdxhJ2NABQB2DC5?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
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        "source_url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/apple-reportedly-tightens-the-belt-on-employee-ai-budgets-amid-cost-cutting-drive/cNGL8Z8R9EG",
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        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/arm-stock-slips-hours-lack-213203690.html",
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        "source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/dow-rallies-1-570-points-on-midterm-relief-stock-market-today",
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        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/adobe-adbe-brings-cx-enterprise-211230372.html",
        "title": "Adobe (ADBE) Brings CX Enterprise Coworker to Major AI Platforms",
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        "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/04/the-nasdaq-100-is-outperforming-nvidia-microsoft-a/",
        "title": "The Nasdaq-100 Is Outperforming Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Tesla This Year. Here's My Favorite Low-Cost ETF to Buy the Dip.",
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        "title": "Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft All Surged Today. You Can Thank the Big Blue Wave.",
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        "source_url": "https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-110426/card/dow-skyrockets-1-500-points-in-best-day-since-trump-s-tariff-pause-VMSWQxf1stpK33dtSPtV?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
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        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/top-research-reports-microsoft-spacex-202500966.html",
        "title": "Top Research Reports for Microsoft, SpaceX & Marvell",
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        "source_url": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/ironically-the-blue-wave-could-make-hyperscalers-good-businesses-again-by-forcing-capex-discipline?ref=yahoofinance&tlnk=yf-261104-7cjpffcj",
        "title": "Ironically, the Blue Wave Could Make Hyperscalers “Good Businesses Again” by Forcing Capex Discipline",
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        "source_url": "https://www.barrons.com/articles/mag-7-stocks-elections-market-cap-b751be65?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
        "title": "The Mag 7 Just Got a $600B Blue-Wave Surprise",
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        "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/stock-futures-edge-lower-treasurys-strengthen-after-democratic-sweep-f2198d07?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
        "title": "U.S. Stocks Jump After Democrats Sweep Congress",
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        "source_url": "https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-110426/card/why-the-blue-wave-isn-t-crushing-the-ai-trade-PsaKo9q5WQfAVdajBj1S?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
        "title": "Why the Blue Wave Isn't Crushing Every AI Play",
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        "title": "Big Tech Stocks And Mag7 ETF Jumps After Democratic Sweep Raises Bets For Easing AI Capex",
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      {
        "provider": "Barrons.com",
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        "source_url": "https://www.barrons.com/articles/election-democrats-treasuries-bond-debt-deficit-fb311877?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo",
        "title": "Democrats’ Big Win Sets Up a Debt Ceiling Fight. What the Election Means for Bonds.",
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        "source_url": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/8652939/apple-stock-is-a-good-place-to-hide-amid-ai-capex-angst-but-dont-expect-big-gains",
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        "provider": "24/7 Wall St.",
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        "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/04/nvidia-and-tesla-left-behind-as-rest-of-mag7-rally-on-dems-big-night/",
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        "provider": "24/7 Wall St.",
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        "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/04/this-magnificent-7-stock-is-quietly-building-an-ai-empire/",
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        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amd-earnings-analysis-questions-answered-180046265.html",
        "title": "AMD earnings analysis: questions answered and next catalysts",
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        "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/04/why-bill-ackman-says-he-feels-like-markets-are-broken-casinos/",
        "title": "Why Bill Ackman Says He Feels Like “Markets Are Broken” Casinos",
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        "provider": "Yahoo Finance",
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        "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-dow-rallies-1500-points-sp-500-nasdaq-midterm-elections-democrats-sweep-201207340.html",
        "title": "Stock market today: Dow surges 1,500 points in best day of 2026, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally after historic midterm election",
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}