{ "schema_version": "research-v1", "authority": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "asset_class": "stock", "symbol": "PLTR", "horizon": "3m", "rating": "Hold", "summary_markdown": "# Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)\n\n**Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nData as of 04 Nov 2026, 16:46 UTC. Last completed session: 2026-11-03. Incomplete-session prices are excluded.\n\n**Confidence: normal.**\n\nCompany report on 2027-02-01 — in 89 days. (consensus EPS 0.4058; revenue $2,669.1M) [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/)\n\n**Blind spots:** this report lacks management call transcript.\n\n**How the rating is set:** the rule gives Hold (valuation points rich; analysts raised this year's EPS estimate; revenue expected to grow fast this year).\n\n## The quick read\n\nHold balances exceptional reported growth and improving analyst estimates against a substantial valuation burden. The single decisive gap is the forward sales multiple far above peers; the scheduled report could change the view if verified results and guidance sustain growth and margins enough to narrow that divide. Recent EPS estimates for the year rose, but analyst expectations remain forecasts rather than reported performance.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm)\n\n## At a glance\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $175.40 | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +95.87% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 46.89% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 123.52× | Price 2026-11-03; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 108.64× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $4.05B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions | +3.13 pp | 2026-09-22 to 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/) |\n| Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions | +4.88 pp | 2026-09-22 to 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK/history/) |\n| Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions | -16.10% | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nThe latest quarter's reconciled reportable segments show Commercial slightly leading Government Operating in revenue and contributing more to year-over-year growth; both expanded rapidly, with Government also a substantial contributor. These segment partitions explain total revenue and are not additive to separate product or geographic partitions. The reported quarter delivered strong growth and operating profitability, while company guidance covers the next quarter. Neither segment figures nor total sales distinguish acquired from organic growth, so the supplied data cannot isolate underlying organic acceleration.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/pltr-20260930.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n### Reportable Segments\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Commercial | $1.17B | 50.48% | +112.95% | +52.45 pp |\n| Government Operating | $1.15B | 49.52% | +81.06% | +43.42 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe indicative earnings multiple is exceptionally high, and the approximate arithmetic EPS bridge is not verified forward EPS; diluted-share changes and rounding limit precision. Forward sales are priced far above the peer median, with the computed comparison requiring revenue far beyond the supplied consensus to meet that peer multiple. Microsoft provides a useful software-scale context, but its broader business differs from Palantir's analytics platform and does not establish a fair multiple. The operating DCF middle sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation, with persistent trailing margin, forecast-path growth, aggregate net reinvestment, a WACC range and terminal assumptions; the reverse DCF implies a steady margin far above delivered trailing margins before and after compensation, implausible without exceptional sustained improvement. Growth, persistent margins, reinvestment, WACC and terminal value drive sensitivity; the dated equity bridge is absent, and the sensitivity is not fair value.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [MSFT filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Diluted EPS, trailing twelve months (sum of reported periods) | $1.42 per share | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 123.52× | Price 2026-11-03; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Earnings yield, trailing twelve months | 0.81% | Price 2026-11-03; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 108.64× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| EV / operating income, trailing twelve months | 132.62× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| EV / sales, trailing twelve months | 60.53× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 53.66× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales | 11.11× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| EV / sales vs. peer median | 444.61% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| Peer median earnings multiple | 27.21× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| Earnings multiple vs. peer median | 354.03% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year | +91.02% | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus) | 9.73× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| Forward EV / sales vs. peer median | 451.72% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple | $45.35B | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus | 33.93× | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year | 8.09× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median | 319.42% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value | 0.92% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield after stock compensation | 0.70% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| EBITDA, trailing twelve months (from reported pre-tax income, interest and depreciation) | $3.77B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| EV / EBITDA, trailing twelve months | 117.06× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies | 171.04% | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin | 55.62% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation | 42.15% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Market EV vs. the middle DCF case | 305.81% | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n\n**Verdict:** on this fiscal year's consensus revenue, PLTR trades at 53.66× forward sales, a 452% premium to the peer median of 9.73× (on trailing sales: 60.53×, a 445% premium). At the peer forward multiple, today's price needs about $45.35B of revenue this year, 452% above the forecast. On next fiscal year's consensus it trades at 33.93×, a 319% premium to the peer median of 8.09×. On the forecast growth path, today's enterprise value implies a steady free-cash-flow margin of 171%, against 56% over the last twelve months (42% after stock compensation). Free cash flow yields 0.9% of enterprise value (0.7% after stock compensation).\n\n### Bear, base and bull on this year's revenue\n\n| Case | Revenue | Basis | EV / sales | Multiple | Price | Change vs. last close |\n|---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---:|\n| Bear | $7.40B | forecast less 10% | 45.61× | today's less 15% | $135.12 | -23.0% |\n| Base | $8.22B | forecast | 53.66× | today's | $175.40 | +0.0% |\n| Bull | $9.04B | forecast plus 10% | 61.71× | today's plus 15% | $220.82 | +25.9% |\n\nThe peer sales multiple differs from this company's by more than 25%, which margins can explain, so these cases stay on today's multiple instead of assuming it converges.\n\nTrailing EPS is the sum of reported periods, so share-count changes make it approximate.\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: companies in the same industry (Software - Infrastructure); business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| PLTR | 2026-11-03 | 2026-09-30 | 123.52× | 60.53× | 53.66× | 50.34% | 1.12× |\n| [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-09-30 | 27.21× | 11.11× | 9.73× | 41.17% | 1.37× |\n| [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-08-31 | 19.78× | 7.11× | 5.65× | 26.36% | 2.48× |\n| [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-07-31 | 875.50× | 23.26× | 18.84× | 2.67% | 14.83× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nTTM operating cash flow exceeded net income, with matched-period cash conversion above parity; after modest capital expenditure, free cash flow also exceeded reported net income. This supports strong cash generation, though operating cash flow reflects working-capital and noncash adjustments. Stock-based compensation remains material: treating it as a cash cost reduces free cash flow, while repurchases were limited in the available filing excerpt. Filing disclosures report no material private-equity-security adjustments or impairments, and describe gross-margin improvement. The excerpted capital-allocation disclosure also records substantial stock compensation, underscoring dilution as an investor cost.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Revenue, trailing twelve months | $7.29B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Net income, trailing twelve months | $3.67B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow, trailing twelve months | $4.10B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $43.24M | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $4.05B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow / net income | 1.12× | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Share-based compensation, trailing twelve months | $982.10M | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Share repurchases, trailing twelve months | $74.98M | 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/0001321655-26-000011-index.html) |\n| Diluted share-count change, year over year | +0.11% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Quarterly net-income change, year over year | +137.18% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year | +144.44% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n\nFree cash flow here means operating cash flow less cash capital expenditure; it does not remove stock compensation or adjust for acquisitions and leases. A reference to adjustments in a filing is a review topic, not an automatically verified normalization.\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nA valuation reset is credible if growth or margins disappoint: the forward sales premium is far above the peer median, while the reverse-DCF margin assumption exceeds even the strong trailing margin after compensation. The indicative earnings multiple leaves little room for weaker execution, and diluted share count has increased year over year. Insider open-market activity was net selling, though that alone does not establish adverse information. The share price recently lagged its short-term averages, and historical results reactions include sharp declines as well as gains. Recent large moves without linked news remain unexplained by available evidence.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe latest results release reported revenue and supplied company guidance for the next quarter, providing a verified operating reference for upcoming updates. The scheduled report appears in a secondary calendar and is not a realized event. Past results-release reactions have typically been meaningful, with both pronounced rises and declines; these are historical observations, not a prediction. The largest listed daily move marked as following results has no linked news ID in the supplied evidence. Other listed large moves also lack explanatory news, so their causes cannot be assigned. Future disclosures should confirm or refute sustained commercial and government demand, revenue delivery, and margin durability.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/)\n\n### Into the report on 2027-02-01\n\nWhat the report will be measured against.\n\n| Measure | Reading | Basis | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Consensus revenue for the quarter | $2.67B | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $0.41 | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/) |\n| Gross margin, latest quarter | 83.43% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Net cash (cash less reported debt) | $10.34B | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this quarter, last 30 days | +11.4% (0 raised, 4 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this fiscal year, last 30 days | +4.8% (1 raised, 3 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Insider open-market trades, last 90 days | bought $0.00, sold $106.63M | SEC Form 4 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1321655&type=4) |\n\n**What would change the view:** revenue above the $2.67B consensus with full-year guidance held would argue for a positive view; revenue below it or lower full-year guidance for a negative one.\n\n**Triggers** (computed from the figures above):\n\n| What | Threshold | Effect |\n|---|---|---|\n| Quarterly revenue | above $2.67B at the 2027-02-01 report | points to the upside |\n| Quarterly EPS | above $0.41 at the 2027-02-01 report | points to the upside |\n| Gross margin | below 83.4% at the 2027-02-01 report | points to the downside |\n\n### Around the next report\n\nPrice paths if the report on 2027-02-01 (in 89 days) moves the stock the way past results did. Past reactions are observed history.\n\n| Scenario | Price | Change vs. last close | Basis |\n|---|---:|---:|---|\n| Typical past rise | $216.57 | +23.5% | median of 5 past rises |\n| Largest past rise | $227.06 | +29.5% | largest of 5 past rises |\n| Typical past fall | $162.36 | -7.4% | median of 4 past falls |\n| Largest past fall | $154.27 | -12.0% | largest of 4 past falls |\n\nPast reactions to results releases (close before the release to close after it):\n\n| Release | Timing | Reaction session | Move |\n|---|---|---|---:|\n| [2026-11-02](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/0001321655-26-000045-index.html) | after the close | 2026-11-03 | -1.6% |\n| [2026-08-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/0001321655-26-000039-index.html) | after the close | 2026-08-04 | +29.5% |\n| [2026-05-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000026/0001321655-26-000026-index.html) | after the close | 2026-05-05 | -6.9% |\n| [2026-02-02](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000004/0001321655-26-000004-index.html) | after the close | 2026-02-03 | +6.8% |\n| [2025-11-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000130/0001321655-25-000130-index.html) | after the close | 2025-11-04 | -7.9% |\n| [2025-08-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000105/0001321655-25-000105-index.html) | after the close | 2025-08-05 | +7.8% |\n| [2025-05-05](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000063/0001321655-25-000063-index.html) | after the close | 2025-05-06 | -12.0% |\n| [2025-02-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000007/0001321655-25-000007-index.html) | after the close | 2025-02-04 | +24.0% |\n| [2024-11-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165524000207/0001321655-24-000207-index.html) | after the close | 2024-11-05 | +23.5% |\n\n### Recent company news\n\nHeadlines from news providers, as published; not verified company disclosures.\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [Should AI Revenue Surge Require Action From Palantir (PLTR) Investors?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9579e7633034563998656962bb2d5982b32e94d58b78f6480494d487991cf3b5) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [Palantir Beats Q3 Estimates as Commercial Biz Takes the Lead: ETFs in Focus](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=da70f55801abf7d56f0d2eee5ac42d9762e2c1def3a0181040b067bac77c85df) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [PLTR Stock In Focus: Exec Says 'It's Gonna Be Very Hard To Value Palantir' As Commercial Business Surpasses US Government Revenue](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=268d96ea623dc42f0a30c11b0443632d0575ee8e3e832f2099c1e02775a4946a) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [PLTR Slides More Despite Strong Results And Forecast — Cathie Wood’s ARK Buys The Dip As Analysts Raise Price Targets](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=6882718dadf7a4456da073097b8833e8cc1df562ac4998354d43abc5f12a72f3) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [PLTR Stock Could Deliver 423% Upside, Says Tom Nash — Here's Why He's Bullish on Palantir](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=467ded7e0a4e2a71fe87c205b268dc79df215ec75d9aadc402e58d2803ee0bba) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [Palantir Is Down 15% in a Year: “Anything Short of a Blowout Is a Sell”](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c4686db7c38827b0b3e6dfeda61329962d78e20430dfbbca3fa950b84bfebea2) (Finnhub)\n\n### Largest daily moves, last ninety sessions\n\nWith company news published from three days before to one day after each move; no news means the available feed does not explain it.\n\n| Session | Move | News around it |\n|---|---:|---|\n| 2026-07-01 | +7.8% | none in the available news |\n| 2026-08-04 | +29.5% | [Company results release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/0001321655-26-000039-index.html) (2026-08-03) |\n| 2026-08-07 | +10.3% | none in the available news |\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA more constructive view would require subsequent company disclosures to sustain growth across both commercial and government customers, preserve operating profitability, and show that cash generation remains robust after recognizing stock compensation. Evidence that diluted-share growth moderates would also improve per-share economics. Conversely, weaker reported demand, reduced guidance, margin compression, or deteriorating cash conversion would strengthen the case for a lower rating. The key test is whether verified operating progress increasingly supports the premium, rather than whether short-term share-price movement alone improves.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/pltr-20260930.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## Operating DCF: explicit assumptions\n\nYear-one revenue growth from the next twelve months' consensus revenue against the trailing twelve (half, as given, one and a half times), the excess over 3% halving each later year; trailing free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation persists and is discounted as is; terminal growth 2%, five annual periods, WACC 8-12%. Scenario inputs, not management guidance, an estimated market WACC or calibrated forecasts.\n\nNo dynamic margin model, explicit D&A/capex/NWC schedule, acquisitions or calibrated terminal economics. Net reinvestment is an aggregate assumption; no claim of intrinsic fair value or a dated price target.\n\nHistorical operating basis: 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30. This run rate is assumed to apply at the price date; no partial-year/stub-period adjustment is made. Forecast periods below are hypothetical annual steps, not fiscal guidance.\n\n| Assumed annual revenue growth | Assumed WACC | Conditional enterprise value | Terminal share of EV |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 34% in year one, fading to 5% | 8% | $91.21B | 77.3% |\n| 34% in year one, fading to 5% | 10% | $67.84B | 71.1% |\n| 34% in year one, fading to 5% | 12% | $53.85B | 65.5% |\n| 69% in year one, fading to 7% | 8% | $147.03B | 78.8% |\n| 69% in year one, fading to 7% | 10% | $108.70B | 72.9% |\n| 69% in year one, fading to 7% | 12% | $85.79B | 67.5% |\n| 103% in year one, fading to 9% | 8% | $222.84B | 80.0% |\n| 103% in year one, fading to 9% | 10% | $163.96B | 74.4% |\n| 103% in year one, fading to 9% | 12% | $128.79B | 69.3% |\n\n### Illustrative cash-flow path\n\nThis displays the assumed middle cell for auditability; it is not a preferred forecast.\n\n| Hypothetical year | Revenue | Free cash flow after stock compensation | Discounted |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 1 | $12.29B | $5.18B | $4.71B |\n| 2 | $16.70B | $7.04B | $5.82B |\n| 3 | $19.94B | $8.41B | $6.32B |\n| 4 | $22.18B | $9.35B | $6.38B |\n| 5 | $23.75B | $10.01B | $6.22B |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)\n\n## Thesis monitoring checklist\n\nObserved baselines are reference points, not automatic trading triggers.\n\n| What to check | Observed baseline | Direction associated with more risk |\n|---|---|---|\n| Does reported growth increasingly justify the forward sales premium? | 451.72% | higher |\n| Does cash generation after stock compensation strengthen relative to enterprise value? | 0.70% | lower |\n| Do open-market insider sales continue without purchases? | −$106.63M | lower |\n\n## Conditional earnings and valuation sensitivity\n\nThese are mechanical assumptions applied to the current arithmetic EPS bridge and indicative multiple. They have no forecast date and do not predict the report horizon. They are not fair values, price targets, forecasts or calibrated probabilities; the unchanged-input cell simply reproduces the current closing price.\n\n| Assumed EPS change | Assumed multiple change | Conditional price | Change vs. last close |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| -10% | -15% | $134.18 | -23.5% |\n| -10% | +0% | $157.86 | -10.0% |\n| -10% | +15% | $181.54 | +3.5% |\n| +0% | -15% | $149.09 | -15.0% |\n| +0% | +0% | $175.40 | +0.0% |\n| +0% | +15% | $201.71 | +15.0% |\n| +10% | -15% | $164.00 | -6.5% |\n| +10% | +0% | $192.94 | +10.0% |\n| +10% | +15% | $221.88 | +26.5% |\n\n## Event calendar: secondary schedule\n\nDates below are provider schedules, not independently confirmed company announcements.\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2027-02-01; financial period ending not supplied by source. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/).\n\n## What this report does and does not establish\n\nRead once, applies throughout: every number links to its source; the narrative is model interpretation. Guidance and consensus are forecasts, past price reactions are history, multiples and DCF cases are context — none of it is a fair value, a price target or a probability of profit.\n\n| Research dimension | Evidence status |\n|---|---|\n| Valuation | P/E on reported earnings |\n| Cash generation | from SEC filings, matched periods |\n| Earnings quality | adjustments read from SEC filings |\n| Benchmark comparison | price returns vs. QQQ and sector ETF |\n| Sensitivity | stated assumptions, not forecasts |\n| Competitive position | limited fixed peer context |\n| Next event | data-provider calendar |\n| Business mix | primary reconciled |\n| Discounted cash flow | stated assumptions, see table |\n\nThe API response carries each figure's source, period and calculation. Benchmarks use price returns, not dividend-reinvested returns. Trading sessions are not calendar days.", "analysts": {}, "model": "openai/gpt-6-luna", "asof_ms": 1793810773243, "last_session": "2026-11-03", "last_close": 175.39999389648438, "snapshot_sha256": "158dbd28c6a9a0b3b792e94eaa93e4bd370d2c7bc03f8547a174c3f80c13e98f", "source": "sec_edgar+yahoo_finance_free+alphavantage+finnhub+massive+fred", "data_quality": "partial", "limitations": [ "Secondary quote metrics are not independently reconciled with primary SEC facts", "Secondary fundamentals publication times are unverified; no historical ML labels", "Current session excluded until 16:15 America/New_York; early closes may be delayed", "Forward estimates, earnings calendar, macro and social sentiment are not verified", "news_unavailable", "Provider context is secondary; forecasts, schedules and management statements are not realized financial facts.", "Provider publication time and revision history may be unavailable; no historical ML labels.", "Optional alphavantage calendar: no eligible records; this context remains unknown.", "Optional alphavantage transcript: fiscal quarter not selected; this context remains unknown.", "FRED macro values use a completed US knowledge date; observation periods are not publication timestamps. No intraday historical or ML-label authority." ], "decision_state": "DIRECTIONAL_VIEW", "verification": { "cited_evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct", "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "doc:15f26584ce4ac7ac7ed6f3ea", "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:CommercialMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:GovernmentOperatingSegmentMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "sec:operating_income:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "peer:MSFT:indicative_pe" ], "errors": [], "memo_schema": "research-memo-v2", "numerical_claims": "SERVER_RENDERED", "policy_sha256": "42b15512af2e6d5c0538dbaa86d906f15cdbe4b9d4cba41b54af9b755f241005", "semantic_claims": "MODEL_INTERPRETATION_NOT_PROVEN", "version": "evidence-v1" }, "coverage": { "analyst_estimates": "SECONDARY_FORECAST", "company_outlook": "PRIMARY_TEXT", "derivatives": "UNKNOWN", "earnings_calendar": "SECONDARY_SCHEDULE", "historical_open_interest": "UNKNOWN", "macro": "DATE_VINTAGE_OBSERVED", "macro_series": { "CPIAUCSL": "DATE_VINTAGE_OBSERVED", "DFF": "DATE_VINTAGE_OBSERVED", "DGS10": "DATE_VINTAGE_OBSERVED", "DGS2": "DATE_VINTAGE_OBSERVED" }, "management_transcript": "UNKNOWN", "news": "SECONDARY_PROVIDER_CONTEXT", "prices": "OBSERVED", "primary_financials": "PRIMARY", "provider_context": "SECONDARY_AS_OBSERVED" }, "quality_blockers": [], "evidence": [ { "accession": "0001321655-26-000048", "available_at": "2026-11-02T23:00:39+00:00", "concept": "RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax", "duration_days": 91, "filed": "2026-11-03", "form": "10-Q", "id": "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "kind": "financial", "metric": "revenue", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "period_start": "2026-07-01", "source": "sec_edgar", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html", "trust": "PRIMARY", "unit": "USD", "value": 2313411000.0 }, { "accession": "0001321655-26-000041", "available_at": "2026-08-03T22:06:38+00:00", "concept": "RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax", "duration_days": 90, "filed": "2026-08-04", "form": "10-Q", "id": "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000041:2026-06-30:2026-04-01", "kind": "financial", "metric": "revenue", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "period_start": "2026-04-01", "source": "sec_edgar", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000041/0001321655-26-000041-index.html", "trust": "PRIMARY", "unit": "USD", "value": 1935464000.0 }, { "accession": "0001321655-26-000028", "available_at": "2026-05-04T21:59:38+00:00", "concept": "RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax", "duration_days": 89, "filed": "2026-05-05", "form": "10-Q", "id": 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null, "evidence_id": "calc:sma_200", "formatted": "$153.60", "formula": "mean(last_200_complete_closes)", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Two-hundred-session moving average", "metric": "sma_200", "period_end": "2026-11-03", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/", "unit": "USD", "value": 153.5962244796753 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "formatted": "$2.31B", "formula": null, "inputs": [], "label": "Reported quarterly revenue", "metric": "revenue", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "period_start": "2026-07-01", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 2313411000.0 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "sec:net_income:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "formatted": "$1.13B", "formula": null, "inputs": [], "label": "Reported quarterly net income", "metric": "net_income", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "period_start": "2026-07-01", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 1128012000.0 } ], "completeness": { "benchmark": "SECONDARY_PRICE_RETURNS", "business_mix": "PRIMARY_RECONCILED", "cash_generation": "PRIMARY_PERIOD_MATCHED", "competitive_context": "LIMITED_FIXED_PEER_CONTEXT", "earnings_quality": "PRIMARY_TEXT_OBSERVED", "event_timing": "SECONDARY_CALENDAR_ONLY", "operating_dcf": "EXPLICIT_OPERATING_DCF_SENSITIVITY", "sensitivity": "EXPLICIT_HYPOTHETICAL_ASSUMPTIONS", "valuation": "INDICATIVE_EPS_BRIDGE" }, "consistency_issues": [], "customer_markdown": "# Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)\n\n**Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nData as of 04 Nov 2026, 16:46 UTC. Last completed session: 2026-11-03. Incomplete-session prices are excluded.\n\n**Confidence: normal.**\n\nCompany report on 2027-02-01 — in 89 days. (consensus EPS 0.4058; revenue $2,669.1M) [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/)\n\n**Blind spots:** this report lacks management call transcript.\n\n**How the rating is set:** the rule gives Hold (valuation points rich; analysts raised this year's EPS estimate; revenue expected to grow fast this year).\n\n## The quick read\n\nHold balances exceptional reported growth and improving analyst estimates against a substantial valuation burden. The single decisive gap is the forward sales multiple far above peers; the scheduled report could change the view if verified results and guidance sustain growth and margins enough to narrow that divide. Recent EPS estimates for the year rose, but analyst expectations remain forecasts rather than reported performance.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm)\n\n## At a glance\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $175.40 | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +95.87% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 46.89% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 123.52× | Price 2026-11-03; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 108.64× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $4.05B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions | +3.13 pp | 2026-09-22 to 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/) |\n| Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions | +4.88 pp | 2026-09-22 to 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK/history/) |\n| Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions | -16.10% | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nThe latest quarter's reconciled reportable segments show Commercial slightly leading Government Operating in revenue and contributing more to year-over-year growth; both expanded rapidly, with Government also a substantial contributor. These segment partitions explain total revenue and are not additive to separate product or geographic partitions. The reported quarter delivered strong growth and operating profitability, while company guidance covers the next quarter. Neither segment figures nor total sales distinguish acquired from organic growth, so the supplied data cannot isolate underlying organic acceleration.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/pltr-20260930.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n### Reportable Segments\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Commercial | $1.17B | 50.48% | +112.95% | +52.45 pp |\n| Government Operating | $1.15B | 49.52% | +81.06% | +43.42 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe indicative earnings multiple is exceptionally high, and the approximate arithmetic EPS bridge is not verified forward EPS; diluted-share changes and rounding limit precision. Forward sales are priced far above the peer median, with the computed comparison requiring revenue far beyond the supplied consensus to meet that peer multiple. Microsoft provides a useful software-scale context, but its broader business differs from Palantir's analytics platform and does not establish a fair multiple. The operating DCF middle sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation, with persistent trailing margin, forecast-path growth, aggregate net reinvestment, a WACC range and terminal assumptions; the reverse DCF implies a steady margin far above delivered trailing margins before and after compensation, implausible without exceptional sustained improvement. Growth, persistent margins, reinvestment, WACC and terminal value drive sensitivity; the dated equity bridge is absent, and the sensitivity is not fair value.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [MSFT filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Diluted EPS, trailing twelve months (sum of reported periods) | $1.42 per share | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 123.52× | Price 2026-11-03; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Earnings yield, trailing twelve months | 0.81% | Price 2026-11-03; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 108.64× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| EV / operating income, trailing twelve months | 132.62× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| EV / sales, trailing twelve months | 60.53× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 53.66× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales | 11.11× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| EV / sales vs. peer median | 444.61% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| Peer median earnings multiple | 27.21× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| Earnings multiple vs. peer median | 354.03% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) · [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) |\n| Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year | +91.02% | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus) | 9.73× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| Forward EV / sales vs. peer median | 451.72% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple | $45.35B | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus | 33.93× | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year | 8.09× | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median | 319.42% | 2026-11-03 | [MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value | 0.92% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield after stock compensation | 0.70% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| EBITDA, trailing twelve months (from reported pre-tax income, interest and depreciation) | $3.77B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| EV / EBITDA, trailing twelve months | 117.06× | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies | 171.04% | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin | 55.62% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation | 42.15% | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Market EV vs. the middle DCF case | 305.81% | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n\n**Verdict:** on this fiscal year's consensus revenue, PLTR trades at 53.66× forward sales, a 452% premium to the peer median of 9.73× (on trailing sales: 60.53×, a 445% premium). At the peer forward multiple, today's price needs about $45.35B of revenue this year, 452% above the forecast. On next fiscal year's consensus it trades at 33.93×, a 319% premium to the peer median of 8.09×. On the forecast growth path, today's enterprise value implies a steady free-cash-flow margin of 171%, against 56% over the last twelve months (42% after stock compensation). Free cash flow yields 0.9% of enterprise value (0.7% after stock compensation).\n\n### Bear, base and bull on this year's revenue\n\n| Case | Revenue | Basis | EV / sales | Multiple | Price | Change vs. last close |\n|---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---:|\n| Bear | $7.40B | forecast less 10% | 45.61× | today's less 15% | $135.12 | -23.0% |\n| Base | $8.22B | forecast | 53.66× | today's | $175.40 | +0.0% |\n| Bull | $9.04B | forecast plus 10% | 61.71× | today's plus 15% | $220.82 | +25.9% |\n\nThe peer sales multiple differs from this company's by more than 25%, which margins can explain, so these cases stay on today's multiple instead of assuming it converges.\n\nTrailing EPS is the sum of reported periods, so share-count changes make it approximate.\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: companies in the same industry (Software - Infrastructure); business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| PLTR | 2026-11-03 | 2026-09-30 | 123.52× | 60.53× | 53.66× | 50.34% | 1.12× |\n| [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-09-30 | 27.21× | 11.11× | 9.73× | 41.17% | 1.37× |\n| [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-08-31 | 19.78× | 7.11× | 5.65× | 26.36% | 2.48× |\n| [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-07-31 | 875.50× | 23.26× | 18.84× | 2.67% | 14.83× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nTTM operating cash flow exceeded net income, with matched-period cash conversion above parity; after modest capital expenditure, free cash flow also exceeded reported net income. This supports strong cash generation, though operating cash flow reflects working-capital and noncash adjustments. Stock-based compensation remains material: treating it as a cash cost reduces free cash flow, while repurchases were limited in the available filing excerpt. Filing disclosures report no material private-equity-security adjustments or impairments, and describe gross-margin improvement. The excerpted capital-allocation disclosure also records substantial stock compensation, underscoring dilution as an investor cost.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Revenue, trailing twelve months | $7.29B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Net income, trailing twelve months | $3.67B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow, trailing twelve months | $4.10B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $43.24M | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $4.05B | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow / net income | 1.12× | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Share-based compensation, trailing twelve months | $982.10M | 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Share repurchases, trailing twelve months | $74.98M | 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000011/0001321655-26-000011-index.html) |\n| Diluted share-count change, year over year | +0.11% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Quarterly net-income change, year over year | +137.18% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year | +144.44% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n\nFree cash flow here means operating cash flow less cash capital expenditure; it does not remove stock compensation or adjust for acquisitions and leases. A reference to adjustments in a filing is a review topic, not an automatically verified normalization.\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nA valuation reset is credible if growth or margins disappoint: the forward sales premium is far above the peer median, while the reverse-DCF margin assumption exceeds even the strong trailing margin after compensation. The indicative earnings multiple leaves little room for weaker execution, and diluted share count has increased year over year. Insider open-market activity was net selling, though that alone does not establish adverse information. The share price recently lagged its short-term averages, and historical results reactions include sharp declines as well as gains. Recent large moves without linked news remain unexplained by available evidence.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe latest results release reported revenue and supplied company guidance for the next quarter, providing a verified operating reference for upcoming updates. The scheduled report appears in a secondary calendar and is not a realized event. Past results-release reactions have typically been meaningful, with both pronounced rises and declines; these are historical observations, not a prediction. The largest listed daily move marked as following results has no linked news ID in the supplied evidence. Other listed large moves also lack explanatory news, so their causes cannot be assigned. Future disclosures should confirm or refute sustained commercial and government demand, revenue delivery, and margin durability.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/)\n\n### Into the report on 2027-02-01\n\nWhat the report will be measured against.\n\n| Measure | Reading | Basis | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Consensus revenue for the quarter | $2.67B | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $0.41 | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/) |\n| Gross margin, latest quarter | 83.43% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Net cash (cash less reported debt) | $10.34B | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/balance-sheet/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this quarter, last 30 days | +11.4% (0 raised, 4 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this fiscal year, last 30 days | +4.8% (1 raised, 3 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) |\n| Insider open-market trades, last 90 days | bought $0.00, sold $106.63M | SEC Form 4 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=1321655&type=4) |\n\n**What would change the view:** revenue above the $2.67B consensus with full-year guidance held would argue for a positive view; revenue below it or lower full-year guidance for a negative one.\n\n**Triggers** (computed from the figures above):\n\n| What | Threshold | Effect |\n|---|---|---|\n| Quarterly revenue | above $2.67B at the 2027-02-01 report | points to the upside |\n| Quarterly EPS | above $0.41 at the 2027-02-01 report | points to the upside |\n| Gross margin | below 83.4% at the 2027-02-01 report | points to the downside |\n\n### Around the next report\n\nPrice paths if the report on 2027-02-01 (in 89 days) moves the stock the way past results did. Past reactions are observed history.\n\n| Scenario | Price | Change vs. last close | Basis |\n|---|---:|---:|---|\n| Typical past rise | $216.57 | +23.5% | median of 5 past rises |\n| Largest past rise | $227.06 | +29.5% | largest of 5 past rises |\n| Typical past fall | $162.36 | -7.4% | median of 4 past falls |\n| Largest past fall | $154.27 | -12.0% | largest of 4 past falls |\n\nPast reactions to results releases (close before the release to close after it):\n\n| Release | Timing | Reaction session | Move |\n|---|---|---|---:|\n| [2026-11-02](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/0001321655-26-000045-index.html) | after the close | 2026-11-03 | -1.6% |\n| [2026-08-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/0001321655-26-000039-index.html) | after the close | 2026-08-04 | +29.5% |\n| [2026-05-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000026/0001321655-26-000026-index.html) | after the close | 2026-05-05 | -6.9% |\n| [2026-02-02](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000004/0001321655-26-000004-index.html) | after the close | 2026-02-03 | +6.8% |\n| [2025-11-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000130/0001321655-25-000130-index.html) | after the close | 2025-11-04 | -7.9% |\n| [2025-08-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000105/0001321655-25-000105-index.html) | after the close | 2025-08-05 | +7.8% |\n| [2025-05-05](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000063/0001321655-25-000063-index.html) | after the close | 2025-05-06 | -12.0% |\n| [2025-02-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165525000007/0001321655-25-000007-index.html) | after the close | 2025-02-04 | +24.0% |\n| [2024-11-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165524000207/0001321655-24-000207-index.html) | after the close | 2024-11-05 | +23.5% |\n\n### Recent company news\n\nHeadlines from news providers, as published; not verified company disclosures.\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [Should AI Revenue Surge Require Action From Palantir (PLTR) Investors?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=9579e7633034563998656962bb2d5982b32e94d58b78f6480494d487991cf3b5) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [Palantir Beats Q3 Estimates as Commercial Biz Takes the Lead: ETFs in Focus](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=da70f55801abf7d56f0d2eee5ac42d9762e2c1def3a0181040b067bac77c85df) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [PLTR Stock In Focus: Exec Says 'It's Gonna Be Very Hard To Value Palantir' As Commercial Business Surpasses US Government Revenue](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=268d96ea623dc42f0a30c11b0443632d0575ee8e3e832f2099c1e02775a4946a) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [PLTR Slides More Despite Strong Results And Forecast — Cathie Wood’s ARK Buys The Dip As Analysts Raise Price Targets](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=6882718dadf7a4456da073097b8833e8cc1df562ac4998354d43abc5f12a72f3) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [PLTR Stock Could Deliver 423% Upside, Says Tom Nash — Here's Why He's Bullish on Palantir](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=467ded7e0a4e2a71fe87c205b268dc79df215ec75d9aadc402e58d2803ee0bba) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-04 — [Palantir Is Down 15% in a Year: “Anything Short of a Blowout Is a Sell”](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=c4686db7c38827b0b3e6dfeda61329962d78e20430dfbbca3fa950b84bfebea2) (Finnhub)\n\n### Largest daily moves, last ninety sessions\n\nWith company news published from three days before to one day after each move; no news means the available feed does not explain it.\n\n| Session | Move | News around it |\n|---|---:|---|\n| 2026-07-01 | +7.8% | none in the available news |\n| 2026-08-04 | +29.5% | [Company results release](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000039/0001321655-26-000039-index.html) (2026-08-03) |\n| 2026-08-07 | +10.3% | none in the available news |\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA more constructive view would require subsequent company disclosures to sustain growth across both commercial and government customers, preserve operating profitability, and show that cash generation remains robust after recognizing stock compensation. Evidence that diluted-share growth moderates would also improve per-share economics. Conversely, weaker reported demand, reduced guidance, margin compression, or deteriorating cash conversion would strengthen the case for a lower rating. The key test is whether verified operating progress increasingly supports the premium, rather than whether short-term share-price movement alone improves.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/pltr-20260930.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## Operating DCF: explicit assumptions\n\nYear-one revenue growth from the next twelve months' consensus revenue against the trailing twelve (half, as given, one and a half times), the excess over 3% halving each later year; trailing free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation persists and is discounted as is; terminal growth 2%, five annual periods, WACC 8-12%. Scenario inputs, not management guidance, an estimated market WACC or calibrated forecasts.\n\nNo dynamic margin model, explicit D&A/capex/NWC schedule, acquisitions or calibrated terminal economics. Net reinvestment is an aggregate assumption; no claim of intrinsic fair value or a dated price target.\n\nHistorical operating basis: 2025-10-01 to 2026-09-30. This run rate is assumed to apply at the price date; no partial-year/stub-period adjustment is made. Forecast periods below are hypothetical annual steps, not fiscal guidance.\n\n| Assumed annual revenue growth | Assumed WACC | Conditional enterprise value | Terminal share of EV |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 34% in year one, fading to 5% | 8% | $91.21B | 77.3% |\n| 34% in year one, fading to 5% | 10% | $67.84B | 71.1% |\n| 34% in year one, fading to 5% | 12% | $53.85B | 65.5% |\n| 69% in year one, fading to 7% | 8% | $147.03B | 78.8% |\n| 69% in year one, fading to 7% | 10% | $108.70B | 72.9% |\n| 69% in year one, fading to 7% | 12% | $85.79B | 67.5% |\n| 103% in year one, fading to 9% | 8% | $222.84B | 80.0% |\n| 103% in year one, fading to 9% | 10% | $163.96B | 74.4% |\n| 103% in year one, fading to 9% | 12% | $128.79B | 69.3% |\n\n### Illustrative cash-flow path\n\nThis displays the assumed middle cell for auditability; it is not a preferred forecast.\n\n| Hypothetical year | Revenue | Free cash flow after stock compensation | Discounted |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 1 | $12.29B | $5.18B | $4.71B |\n| 2 | $16.70B | $7.04B | $5.82B |\n| 3 | $19.94B | $8.41B | $6.32B |\n| 4 | $22.18B | $9.35B | $6.38B |\n| 5 | $23.75B | $10.01B | $6.22B |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/)\n\n## Thesis monitoring checklist\n\nObserved baselines are reference points, not automatic trading triggers.\n\n| What to check | Observed baseline | Direction associated with more risk |\n|---|---|---|\n| Does reported growth increasingly justify the forward sales premium? | 451.72% | higher |\n| Does cash generation after stock compensation strengthen relative to enterprise value? | 0.70% | lower |\n| Do open-market insider sales continue without purchases? | −$106.63M | lower |\n\n## Conditional earnings and valuation sensitivity\n\nThese are mechanical assumptions applied to the current arithmetic EPS bridge and indicative multiple. They have no forecast date and do not predict the report horizon. They are not fair values, price targets, forecasts or calibrated probabilities; the unchanged-input cell simply reproduces the current closing price.\n\n| Assumed EPS change | Assumed multiple change | Conditional price | Change vs. last close |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| -10% | -15% | $134.18 | -23.5% |\n| -10% | +0% | $157.86 | -10.0% |\n| -10% | +15% | $181.54 | +3.5% |\n| +0% | -15% | $149.09 | -15.0% |\n| +0% | +0% | $175.40 | +0.0% |\n| +0% | +15% | $201.71 | +15.0% |\n| +10% | -15% | $164.00 | -6.5% |\n| +10% | +0% | $192.94 | +10.0% |\n| +10% | +15% | $221.88 | +26.5% |\n\n## Event calendar: secondary schedule\n\nDates below are provider schedules, not independently confirmed company announcements.\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2027-02-01; financial period ending not supplied by source. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/).\n\n## What this report does and does not establish\n\nRead once, applies throughout: every number links to its source; the narrative is model interpretation. Guidance and consensus are forecasts, past price reactions are history, multiples and DCF cases are context — none of it is a fair value, a price target or a probability of profit.\n\n| Research dimension | Evidence status |\n|---|---|\n| Valuation | P/E on reported earnings |\n| Cash generation | from SEC filings, matched periods |\n| Earnings quality | adjustments read from SEC filings |\n| Benchmark comparison | price returns vs. QQQ and sector ETF |\n| Sensitivity | stated assumptions, not forecasts |\n| Competitive position | limited fixed peer context |\n| Next event | data-provider calendar |\n| Business mix | primary reconciled |\n| Discounted cash flow | stated assumptions, see table |\n\nThe API response carries each figure's source, period and calculation. Benchmarks use price returns, not dividend-reinvested returns. Trading sessions are not calendar days.", "editorial_markdown": "# Outstanding growth faces an exceptionally demanding valuation\n\n**PLTR · Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nSource snapshot: 04 Nov 2026, 16:46 UTC. Last completed market session: 2026-11-03.\n\nHold balances exceptional reported growth and improving analyst estimates against a substantial valuation burden. The single decisive gap is the forward sales multiple far above peers; the scheduled report could change the view if verified results and guidance sustain growth and margins enough to narrow that divide. Recent EPS estimates for the year rose, but analyst expectations remain forecasts rather than reported performance.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $175.40 | 2026-11-03 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +95.87% | 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 46.89% | 2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 123.52× | Price 2026-11-03; earnings basis ended 2026-09-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 108.64× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nThe latest quarter's reconciled reportable segments show Commercial slightly leading Government Operating in revenue and contributing more to year-over-year growth; both expanded rapidly, with Government also a substantial contributor. These segment partitions explain total revenue and are not additive to separate product or geographic partitions. The reported quarter delivered strong growth and operating profitability, while company guidance covers the next quarter. Neither segment figures nor total sales distinguish acquired from organic growth, so the supplied data cannot isolate underlying organic acceleration.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/pltr-20260930.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n### Reportable Segments\n\nReported quarter ended 2026-09-30. Contributions are percentage points of total-company revenue growth; these partitions overlap and must not be added.\n\n| Business category | Revenue | Share of revenue | Year-over-year change | Growth contribution |\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| Commercial | $1.17B | 50.48% | +112.95% | +52.45 pp |\n| Government Operating | $1.15B | 49.52% | +81.06% | +43.42 pp |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe indicative earnings multiple is exceptionally high, and the approximate arithmetic EPS bridge is not verified forward EPS; diluted-share changes and rounding limit precision. Forward sales are priced far above the peer median, with the computed comparison requiring revenue far beyond the supplied consensus to meet that peer multiple. Microsoft provides a useful software-scale context, but its broader business differs from Palantir's analytics platform and does not establish a fair multiple. The operating DCF middle sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation, with persistent trailing margin, forecast-path growth, aggregate net reinvestment, a WACC range and terminal assumptions; the reverse DCF implies a steady margin far above delivered trailing margins before and after compensation, implausible without exceptional sustained improvement. Growth, persistent margins, reinvestment, WACC and terminal value drive sensitivity; the dated equity bridge is absent, and the sensitivity is not fair value.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html) · [MSFT filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) · [MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history/)\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: companies in the same industry (Software - Infrastructure); business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| PLTR | 2026-11-03 | 2026-09-30 | 123.52× | 60.53× | 53.66× | 50.34% | 1.12× |\n| [MSFT](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526323660/0001193125-26-323660-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-09-30 | 27.21× | 11.11× | 9.73× | 41.17% | 1.37× |\n| [ORCL](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526277521/0001193125-26-277521-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-08-31 | 19.78× | 7.11× | 5.65× | 26.36% | 2.48× |\n| [PANW](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1327567/000132756726000023/0001327567-26-000023-index.html) | 2026-11-03 | 2026-07-31 | 875.50× | 23.26× | 18.84× | 2.67% | 14.83× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nTTM operating cash flow exceeded net income, with matched-period cash conversion above parity; after modest capital expenditure, free cash flow also exceeded reported net income. This supports strong cash generation, though operating cash flow reflects working-capital and noncash adjustments. Stock-based compensation remains material: treating it as a cash cost reduces free cash flow, while repurchases were limited in the available filing excerpt. Filing disclosures report no material private-equity-security adjustments or impairments, and describe gross-margin improvement. The excerpted capital-allocation disclosure also records substantial stock compensation, underscoring dilution as an investor cost.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nA valuation reset is credible if growth or margins disappoint: the forward sales premium is far above the peer median, while the reverse-DCF margin assumption exceeds even the strong trailing margin after compensation. The indicative earnings multiple leaves little room for weaker execution, and diluted share count has increased year over year. Insider open-market activity was net selling, though that alone does not establish adverse information. The share price recently lagged its short-term averages, and historical results reactions include sharp declines as well as gains. Recent large moves without linked news remain unexplained by available evidence.\n\n[MSFT consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/analysis/) · [ORCL consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORCL/analysis/) · [PANW consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PANW/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe latest results release reported revenue and supplied company guidance for the next quarter, providing a verified operating reference for upcoming updates. The scheduled report appears in a secondary calendar and is not a realized event. Past results-release reactions have typically been meaningful, with both pronounced rises and declines; these are historical observations, not a prediction. The largest listed daily move marked as following results has no linked news ID in the supplied evidence. Other listed large moves also lack explanatory news, so their causes cannot be assigned. Future disclosures should confirm or refute sustained commercial and government demand, revenue delivery, and margin durability.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000045/a2026q3ex991pressrelease.htm) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/)\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA more constructive view would require subsequent company disclosures to sustain growth across both commercial and government customers, preserve operating profitability, and show that cash generation remains robust after recognizing stock compensation. Evidence that diluted-share growth moderates would also improve per-share economics. Conversely, weaker reported demand, reduced guidance, margin compression, or deteriorating cash conversion would strengthen the case for a lower rating. The key test is whether verified operating progress increasingly supports the premium, rather than whether short-term share-price movement alone improves.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/pltr-20260930.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html)\n\n## Sources and scope\n\nAI-assisted research using published financial evidence and labelled observed market/provider context. Indicative EPS valuation is arithmetic and approximate. Schedules and forecasts are not reported outcomes. Sensitivities are hypothetical, not price targets. The structured report retains the full evidence and missing dimensions.", "headline": "Outstanding growth faces an exceptionally demanding valuation", "key_metrics": [ { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:last_close", "formatted": "$175.40", "formula": "last_complete_daily_close", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Last closing price", "metric": "last_close", "period_end": "2026-11-03", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/", "unit": "USD", "value": 175.39999389648438 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:revenue_yoy_pct", "formatted": "+95.87%", "formula": "(current_comparable_quarter/prior_year_quarter-1)*100", "inputs": [ "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2025-09-30:2025-07-01" ], "label": "Quarterly revenue growth, year over year", "metric": "revenue_yoy_pct", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 95.87051643733086 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:operating_margin_pct", "formatted": "46.89%", "formula": "matched_period_income/revenue*100", "inputs": [ "sec:operating_income:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01" ], "label": "Quarterly operating margin", "metric": "operating_margin_pct", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "period_start": "2026-07-01", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 46.893742616422244 }, { "caveat": "Indicative multiple; EPS arithmetic is approximate, not a fair value or forward P/E.", "evidence_id": "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "formatted": "123.52×", "formula": "last_complete_close/arithmetic_ttm_diluted_eps", "inputs": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "label": "P/E, trailing twelve months", "metric": "indicative_price_to_eps", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": "2026-11-03", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html", "unit": "multiple", "value": 123.52112246231295 }, { "caveat": "Forward multiple on analyst consensus; not a fair value. The consensus EPS agrees with Yahoo's (22 analysts) within 15%.", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_price_to_eps", "formatted": "108.64×", "formula": "last_complete_close/fiscal_year_consensus_eps", "inputs": [ "calc:last_close", "est:consensus_fy_eps:alphavantage:bf62671ddb9cf583e0a3663c" ], "label": "Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus)", "metric": "forward_price_to_eps", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/", "unit": "multiple", "value": 108.64044217806402 }, { "caveat": "This definition does not adjust for acquisitions, leases or stock compensation.", "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "formatted": "$4.05B", "formula": "cash_from_operations-minus-cash_capital_expenditure", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "calc:ttm_capex" ], "label": "Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months", "metric": "ttm_free_cashflow", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "period_start": "2025-10-01", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1321655/000132165526000048/0001321655-26-000048-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 4053956000.0 }, { "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "formatted": "+3.13 pp", "formula": "asset-minus-QQQ_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv", "benchmark:qqq_30_session_price_return" ], "label": "Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions", "metric": "relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "period_end": "2026-11-03", "period_start": "2026-09-22", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/", "unit": "percentage_points", "value": 3.1347684613752484 }, { "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "formatted": "+4.88 pp", "formula": "asset-minus-XLK_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv", "benchmark:sector_30_session_price_return" ], "label": "Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions", "metric": "relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "period_end": "2026-11-03", "period_start": "2026-09-22", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK/history/", "unit": "percentage_points", "value": 4.883698432885819 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "formatted": "-16.10%", "formula": "min(close/running_peak-1)*100_in_last_90_observations", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions", "metric": "max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "period_end": "2026-11-03", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history/", "unit": "percent", "value": -16.096631745536104 } ], "language": "en", "predictive_confidence": null, "reverse_valuation": [ { "assumed_multiple": 25, "eps_change_required_pct": 394.0844898492518, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 7.015999755859375 }, { "assumed_multiple": 30, "eps_change_required_pct": 311.7370748743765, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 5.846666463216146 }, { "assumed_multiple": 35, "eps_change_required_pct": 252.91749274946557, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 5.011428397042411 }, { "assumed_multiple": 40, "eps_change_required_pct": 208.80280615578232, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 4.384999847412109 }, { "assumed_multiple": 45, "eps_change_required_pct": 174.49138324958432, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 3.897777642144097 } ], "sections": [ { "evidence_ids": [ "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:CommercialMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:GovernmentOperatingSegmentMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "sec:operating_income:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01" ], "key": "business_drivers", "text": "The latest quarter's reconciled reportable segments show Commercial slightly leading Government Operating in revenue and contributing more to year-over-year growth; both expanded rapidly, with Government also a substantial contributor. These segment partitions explain total revenue and are not additive to separate product or geographic partitions. The reported quarter delivered strong growth and operating profitability, while company guidance covers the next quarter. Neither segment figures nor total sales distinguish acquired from organic growth, so the supplied data cannot isolate underlying organic acceleration.", "title": "What drives the case" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "peer:MSFT:indicative_pe" ], "key": "valuation", "text": "The indicative earnings multiple is exceptionally high, and the approximate arithmetic EPS bridge is not verified forward EPS; diluted-share changes and rounding limit precision. Forward sales are priced far above the peer median, with the computed comparison requiring revenue far beyond the supplied consensus to meet that peer multiple. Microsoft provides a useful software-scale context, but its broader business differs from Palantir's analytics platform and does not establish a fair multiple. The operating DCF middle sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation, with persistent trailing margin, forecast-path growth, aggregate net reinvestment, a WACC range and terminal assumptions; the reverse DCF implies a steady margin far above delivered trailing margins before and after compensation, implausible without exceptional sustained improvement. Growth, persistent margins, reinvestment, WACC and terminal value drive sensitivity; the dated equity bridge is absent, and the sensitivity is not fair value.", "title": "What the current price implies" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "calc:ttm_cash_conversion", "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct" ], "key": "earnings_quality", "text": "TTM operating cash flow exceeded net income, with matched-period cash conversion above parity; after modest capital expenditure, free cash flow also exceeded reported net income. This supports strong cash generation, though operating cash flow reflects working-capital and noncash adjustments. Stock-based compensation remains material: treating it as a cash cost reduces free cash flow, while repurchases were limited in the available filing excerpt. Filing disclosures report no material private-equity-security adjustments or impairments, and describe gross-margin improvement. The excerpted capital-allocation disclosure also records substantial stock compensation, underscoring dilution as an investor cost.", "title": "Earnings quality and cash generation" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct", "calc:diluted_share_count_yoy_pct" ], "key": "risk_case", "text": "A valuation reset is credible if growth or margins disappoint: the forward sales premium is far above the peer median, while the reverse-DCF margin assumption exceeds even the strong trailing margin after compensation. The indicative earnings multiple leaves little room for weaker execution, and diluted share count has increased year over year. Insider open-market activity was net selling, though that alone does not establish adverse information. The share price recently lagged its short-term averages, and historical results reactions include sharp declines as well as gains. Recent large moves without linked news remain unexplained by available evidence.", "title": "The strongest counter-case" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "doc:15f26584ce4ac7ac7ed6f3ea", "doc:4ade47e9049964d6dc34282c", "ctx:yahoo_finance_free:4bdf47735bef94802364b8e1", "calc:earnings_move_median_abs_pct" ], "key": "catalysts", "text": "The latest results release reported revenue and supplied company guidance for the next quarter, providing a verified operating reference for upcoming updates. The scheduled report appears in a secondary calendar and is not a realized event. Past results-release reactions have typically been meaningful, with both pronounced rises and declines; these are historical observations, not a prediction. The largest listed daily move marked as following results has no linked news ID in the supplied evidence. Other listed large moves also lack explanatory news, so their causes cannot be assigned. Future disclosures should confirm or refute sustained commercial and government demand, revenue delivery, and margin durability.", "title": "Events and evidence to watch" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:CommercialMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:GovernmentOperatingSegmentMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "calc:ttm_cash_conversion", "calc:diluted_share_count_yoy_pct" ], "key": "change_conditions", "text": "A more constructive view would require subsequent company disclosures to sustain growth across both commercial and government customers, preserve operating profitability, and show that cash generation remains robust after recognizing stock compensation. Evidence that diluted-share growth moderates would also improve per-share economics. Conversely, weaker reported demand, reduced guidance, margin compression, or deteriorating cash conversion would strengthen the case for a lower rating. The key test is whether verified operating progress increasingly supports the premium, rather than whether short-term share-price movement alone improves.", "title": "What would change our view" } ], "sensitivity": { "rows": [ { "change_from_close_pct": -23.499999999999986, "conditional_price": 134.18099533081056, "eps_change_pct": -10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": -15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": -9.999999999999986, "conditional_price": 157.85999450683596, "eps_change_pct": -10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 3.499999999999992, "conditional_price": 181.53899368286133, "eps_change_pct": -10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": -15.000000000000002, "conditional_price": 149.08999481201172, "eps_change_pct": 0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": -15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 0.0, "conditional_price": 175.39999389648438, "eps_change_pct": 0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 14.999999999999991, "conditional_price": 201.70999298095703, "eps_change_pct": 0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": -6.500000000000005, "conditional_price": 163.9989942932129, "eps_change_pct": 10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": -15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 10.000000000000009, "conditional_price": 192.93999328613282, "eps_change_pct": 10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 26.49999999999999, "conditional_price": 221.88099227905272, "eps_change_pct": 10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 15.0 } ], "status": "HYPOTHETICAL_NOT_TARGETS" }, "summary": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct", "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "doc:15f26584ce4ac7ac7ed6f3ea" ], "text": "Hold balances exceptional reported growth and improving analyst estimates against a substantial valuation burden. The single decisive gap is the forward sales multiple far above peers; the scheduled report could change the view if verified results and guidance sustain growth and margins enough to narrow that divide. Recent EPS estimates for the year rose, but analyst expectations remain forecasts rather than reported performance." }, "version": "research-presentation-v2", "watchlist": [ { "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "question": "Does reported growth increasingly justify the forward sales premium?", "risk_direction": "higher" }, { "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_yield_pct", "question": "Does cash generation after stock compensation strengthen relative to enterprise value?", "risk_direction": "lower" }, { "evidence_id": "sec:insider_net_90d_usd", "question": "Do open-market insider sales continue without purchases?", "risk_direction": "lower" } ] }, "memo": { "business_drivers": { "evidence_ids": [ "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:CommercialMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:GovernmentOperatingSegmentMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "sec:operating_income:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01" ], "text": "The latest quarter's reconciled reportable segments show Commercial slightly leading Government Operating in revenue and contributing more to year-over-year growth; both expanded rapidly, with Government also a substantial contributor. These segment partitions explain total revenue and are not additive to separate product or geographic partitions. The reported quarter delivered strong growth and operating profitability, while company guidance covers the next quarter. Neither segment figures nor total sales distinguish acquired from organic growth, so the supplied data cannot isolate underlying organic acceleration." }, "catalysts": { "evidence_ids": [ "doc:15f26584ce4ac7ac7ed6f3ea", "doc:4ade47e9049964d6dc34282c", "ctx:yahoo_finance_free:4bdf47735bef94802364b8e1", "calc:earnings_move_median_abs_pct" ], "text": "The latest results release reported revenue and supplied company guidance for the next quarter, providing a verified operating reference for upcoming updates. The scheduled report appears in a secondary calendar and is not a realized event. Past results-release reactions have typically been meaningful, with both pronounced rises and declines; these are historical observations, not a prediction. The largest listed daily move marked as following results has no linked news ID in the supplied evidence. Other listed large moves also lack explanatory news, so their causes cannot be assigned. Future disclosures should confirm or refute sustained commercial and government demand, revenue delivery, and margin durability." }, "change_conditions": { "evidence_ids": [ "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:CommercialMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "mix:PLTR:reportable_segments:GovernmentOperatingSegmentMember:2026-07-01:2026-09-30", "calc:ttm_cash_conversion", "calc:diluted_share_count_yoy_pct" ], "text": "A more constructive view would require subsequent company disclosures to sustain growth across both commercial and government customers, preserve operating profitability, and show that cash generation remains robust after recognizing stock compensation. Evidence that diluted-share growth moderates would also improve per-share economics. Conversely, weaker reported demand, reduced guidance, margin compression, or deteriorating cash conversion would strengthen the case for a lower rating. The key test is whether verified operating progress increasingly supports the premium, rather than whether short-term share-price movement alone improves." }, "earnings_quality": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "calc:ttm_cash_conversion", "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct" ], "text": "TTM operating cash flow exceeded net income, with matched-period cash conversion above parity; after modest capital expenditure, free cash flow also exceeded reported net income. This supports strong cash generation, though operating cash flow reflects working-capital and noncash adjustments. Stock-based compensation remains material: treating it as a cash cost reduces free cash flow, while repurchases were limited in the available filing excerpt. Filing disclosures report no material private-equity-security adjustments or impairments, and describe gross-margin improvement. The excerpted capital-allocation disclosure also records substantial stock compensation, underscoring dilution as an investor cost." }, "headline": "Outstanding growth faces an exceptionally demanding valuation", "rating": "Hold", "risk_case": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct", "calc:diluted_share_count_yoy_pct" ], "text": "A valuation reset is credible if growth or margins disappoint: the forward sales premium is far above the peer median, while the reverse-DCF margin assumption exceeds even the strong trailing margin after compensation. The indicative earnings multiple leaves little room for weaker execution, and diluted share count has increased year over year. Insider open-market activity was net selling, though that alone does not establish adverse information. The share price recently lagged its short-term averages, and historical results reactions include sharp declines as well as gains. Recent large moves without linked news remain unexplained by available evidence." }, "summary": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct", "sec:revenue:0001321655-26-000048:2026-09-30:2026-07-01", "doc:15f26584ce4ac7ac7ed6f3ea" ], "text": "Hold balances exceptional reported growth and improving analyst estimates against a substantial valuation burden. The single decisive gap is the forward sales multiple far above peers; the scheduled report could change the view if verified results and guidance sustain growth and margins enough to narrow that divide. Recent EPS estimates for the year rose, but analyst expectations remain forecasts rather than reported performance." }, "valuation": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "peer:MSFT:indicative_pe" ], "text": "The indicative earnings multiple is exceptionally high, and the approximate arithmetic EPS bridge is not verified forward EPS; diluted-share changes and rounding limit precision. Forward sales are priced far above the peer median, with the computed comparison requiring revenue far beyond the supplied consensus to meet that peer multiple. Microsoft provides a useful software-scale context, but its broader business differs from Palantir's analytics platform and does not establish a fair multiple. The operating DCF middle sensitivity uses free cash flow after stock compensation, with persistent trailing margin, forecast-path growth, aggregate net reinvestment, a WACC range and terminal assumptions; the reverse DCF implies a steady margin far above delivered trailing margins before and after compensation, implausible without exceptional sustained improvement. Growth, persistent margins, reinvestment, WACC and terminal value drive sensitivity; the dated equity bridge is absent, and the sensitivity is not fair value." }, "watchlist": [ { "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "question": "Does reported growth increasingly justify the forward sales premium?", "risk_direction": "higher" }, { "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_yield_pct", "question": "Does cash generation after stock compensation strengthen relative to enterprise value?", "risk_direction": "lower" }, { "evidence_id": "sec:insider_net_90d_usd", "question": "Do open-market insider sales continue without purchases?", "risk_direction": "lower" } ] }, "editorial_selection": { "version": "editorial-interest-v2", "edition": "2026-11-04", "quiet_day": false, "explanation": "Selected from 17 eligible candidates across 30 supported assets. Completed-session move -1.65% (0.56 standard deviations); volume 2.37x the previous 20-session median; median daily dollar volume $4,408m. Catalyst: reported earnings or guidance. Editorial score 59.7/100. Event classification uses dated source metadata, not verified economic impact. 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