{ "schema_version": "research-v1", "authority": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "asset_class": "stock", "symbol": "AMD", "horizon": "3m", "rating": "Hold", "summary_markdown": "# Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)\n\n**Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nData as of 02 Nov 2026, 07:08 UTC. Last completed session: 2026-10-30. Incomplete-session prices are excluded.\n\n**Confidence: low** — the company reports on 2026-11-03 (in 1 days); this view depends on its results.\n\nCompany report on 2026-11-03 — in 1 days. (consensus by source — Yahoo Finance: EPS 1.939; Alpha Vantage: EPS 1.68; revenue $13,092.1M) [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/)\n\n**Blind spots:** this report lacks management call transcript.\n\n**How the rating is set:** the rule gives Hold (valuation points rich; analysts raised this year's EPS estimate; revenue expected to grow fast this year).\n\n## The quick read\n\nAMD’s growth and improving analyst estimates support the business case, but valuation remains demanding. The single gap driving a Hold is the free-cash-flow margin implied by today’s price versus the margin delivered: the implied level is far above trailing results. Confirmation of Data Center acceleration and durable margins in the scheduled report would change that balance; weaker delivery would deepen the valuation concern.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html)\n\n## At a glance\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $504.80 | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +50.11% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 17.25% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 129.44× | Price 2026-10-30; earnings basis ended 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 66.36× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $8.40B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions | -5.54 pp | 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/) |\n| Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions | +1.72 pp | 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/history/) |\n| Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions | -26.05% | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nThe latest reported quarter showed revenue growth and higher operating income, while the company’s published outlook expects Data Center sales to accelerate and drive stronger overall growth and earnings expansion. That makes accelerator demand, customer deployments, supply execution and product mix central to the thesis. The filing attributes the gross-margin comparison partly to the absence of prior-period export-control-related inventory charges and to favorable mix, including greater Data Center revenue; that cautions against treating the improvement as purely recurring. Reconciled business-mix partitions are unavailable, so category contributions and weakening segments cannot be independently assessed.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/amd-20260627.htm)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe forward EV-to-sales multiple is at a premium to the peer median; the forecast revenue needed to match that peer multiple is materially above consensus. Justifying the premium therefore requires revenue to exceed expectations and convert into durable margins. AMD’s indicative trailing earnings multiple is also much higher than the available peer P/E observations, although peers differ in business mix and profitability. The middle operating DCF sensitivity is well below market enterprise value. It assumes free cash flow after stock compensation, persistent trailing margin, aggregate net reinvestment, forecast revenue growth, a discount-rate range and terminal growth; value is particularly sensitive to margin persistence and terminal contribution. These hypothetical inputs are not verified forecasts, and the equity bridge is unavailable.\n\n[AVGO consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [AVGO filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [AVGO consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Diluted EPS, trailing twelve months (sum of reported periods) | $3.90 per share | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 129.44× | Price 2026-10-30; earnings basis ended 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Earnings yield, trailing twelve months | 0.77% | Price 2026-10-30; earnings basis ended 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 66.36× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| EV / operating income, trailing twelve months | 127.56× | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| EV / sales, trailing twelve months | 20.04× | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 16.23× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales | 16.44× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| EV / sales vs. peer median | 21.88% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| Peer median earnings multiple | 25.87× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| Earnings multiple vs. peer median | 400.31% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year | +47.22% | 2026-12-27 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus) | 12.10× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| Forward EV / sales vs. peer median | 34.12% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple | $68.40B | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus | 9.23× | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year | 7.20× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median | 28.26% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value | 1.02% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield after stock compensation | 0.79% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Net interest income, trailing twelve months | $215.00M | 2024-12-29 to 2025-12-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000018/0000002488-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies | 37.87% | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin | 20.34% | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation | 15.76% | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Market EV vs. the middle DCF case | 140.36% | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n\n**Verdict:** on this fiscal year's consensus revenue, AMD trades at 16.23× forward sales, a 34% premium to the peer median of 12.10× (on trailing sales: 20.04×, a 22% premium). At the peer forward multiple, today's price needs about $68.40B of revenue this year, 34% above the forecast. On next fiscal year's consensus it trades at 9.23×, a 28% premium to the peer median of 7.20×. On the forecast growth path, today's enterprise value implies a steady free-cash-flow margin of 38%, against 20% over the last twelve months (16% after stock compensation). Free cash flow yields 1.0% of enterprise value (0.8% after stock compensation).\n\n### Bear, base and bull on this year's revenue\n\n| Case | Revenue | Basis | EV / sales | Multiple | Price | Change vs. last close |\n|---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---:|\n| Bear | $45.90B | forecast less 10% | 12.10× | peer median | $340.70 | -32.5% |\n| Base | $51.00B | forecast | 12.10× | peer median | $377.90 | -25.1% |\n| Bull | $56.10B | forecast plus 10% | 16.23× | today's | $554.68 | +9.9% |\n\nTrailing EPS is the sum of reported periods, so share-count changes make it approximate.\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: companies in the same industry (Semiconductors); business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| AMD | 2026-10-30 | 2026-06-27 | 129.44× | 20.04× | 16.23× | 15.58% | 1.57× |\n| [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-07-26 | 25.87× | 16.44× | 12.10× | 63.66% | 0.70× |\n| [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-08-02 | 41.59× | 18.28× | 15.37× | 42.94% | 1.06× |\n| [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-06-28 | 18.83× | 4.11× | 4.23× | 21.01% | 1.34× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nTTM operating cash flow exceeds reported net income, and after cash capex free cash flow remains substantial. Matched-period cash conversion is above net income, but working-capital movements and noncash adjustments can affect that relationship. Treating stock compensation as a cash cost reduces the resulting margin meaningfully; repurchases are comparatively modest and do not offset dilution automatically. The filing also describes a receivable subject to impairment assessment and substantial future amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, relevant to interpreting reported earnings and asset quality.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Revenue, trailing twelve months | $41.30B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Net income, trailing twelve months | $6.43B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow, trailing twelve months | $10.08B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $1.68B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $8.40B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow / net income | 1.57× | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Share-based compensation, trailing twelve months | $1.90B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Share repurchases, trailing twelve months | $310.00M | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Repurchases / free cash flow | 3.69% | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Diluted share-count change, year over year | +1.78% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Quarterly net-income change, year over year | +163.42% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year | +155.56% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n\nFree cash flow here means operating cash flow less cash capital expenditure; it does not remove stock compensation or adjust for acquisitions and leases. A reference to adjustments in a filing is a review topic, not an automatically verified normalization.\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nThe strongest challenge is that rapid forecast growth could validate the premium, while an abrupt valuation reset could overwhelm operating progress. The recent peak-to-trough drawdown began before the available news feed, and no results release or supplied news item establishes its cause; how much bad news it already reflects is therefore unknown. The largest recent down day coincided with news items, but the available evidence does not establish which item caused the move. Gross-margin comparison also benefited from prior-period charges not recurring and favorable mix.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/amd-20260627.htm)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe scheduled report is the immediate company-specific test: investors need evidence that Data Center acceleration, customer deployments and supply execution support the outlook without sacrificing margins. Company guidance is a management claim, while analyst estimates and calendar entries are secondary schedules, not realized results. Past reactions to results releases have typically been meaningful, with both sharp rises and declines; that history underscores event sensitivity, not direction. The supplied large daily moves lack explanatory news for two observations, and the available news does not establish the cause of the drawdown.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/amdq22026earningsslidesf.htm) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/)\n\n### Into the report on 2026-11-03\n\nWhat the report will be measured against.\n\n| Measure | Reading | Basis | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Consensus revenue for the quarter | $13.09B | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $1.94 | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $1.68 | Alpha Vantage | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Gross margin, latest quarter | 53.77% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Net cash (cash less reported debt) | $9.88B | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this quarter, last 30 days | +0.5% (1 raised, 0 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this fiscal year, last 30 days | +0.2% (5 raised, 1 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Insider open-market trades, last 90 days | bought $0.00, sold $114.87M | SEC Form 4 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=2488&type=4) |\n\n**What would change the view:** revenue above the $13.09B consensus with full-year guidance held would argue for a positive view; revenue below it or lower full-year guidance for a negative one.\n\n**Triggers** (computed from the figures above):\n\n| What | Threshold | Effect |\n|---|---|---|\n| Quarterly revenue | above $13.09B at the 2026-11-03 report | supports the case |\n| Quarterly EPS | above $1.94 at the 2026-11-03 report | supports the case |\n| Gross margin | below 53.8% at the 2026-11-03 report | weakens the case |\n| Share price | below $377.90 | supports the case |\n\n### Around the next report\n\nPrice paths if the company reports on 2026-11-03 (in 1 days) moves the stock the way past results did. Past reactions are observed history.\n\n| Scenario | Price | Change vs. last close | Basis |\n|---|---:|---:|---|\n| Typical past rise | $517.48 | +2.5% | median of 3 past rises |\n| Largest past rise | $598.77 | +18.6% | largest of 3 past rises |\n| Typical past fall | $470.82 | -6.7% | median of 4 past falls |\n| Largest past fall | $417.40 | -17.3% | largest of 4 past falls |\n\nPast reactions to results releases (close before the release to close after it):\n\n| Release | Timing | Reaction session | Move |\n|---|---|---|---:|\n| [2026-08-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/0000002488-26-000121-index.html) | after the close | 2026-08-05 | -7.0% |\n| [2026-05-05](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000072/0000002488-26-000072-index.html) | after the close | 2026-05-06 | +18.6% |\n| [2026-02-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000014/0000002488-26-000014-index.html) | after the close | 2026-02-04 | -17.3% |\n| [2025-11-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000163/0000002488-25-000163-index.html) | after the close | 2025-11-05 | +2.5% |\n| [2025-08-05](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000106/0000002488-25-000106-index.html) | after the close | 2025-08-06 | -6.4% |\n| [2025-05-06](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000045/0000002488-25-000045-index.html) | after the close | 2025-05-07 | +1.8% |\n| [2025-02-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000009/0000002488-25-000009-index.html) | after the close | 2025-02-05 | -6.3% |\n\n### Recent company news\n\nHeadlines from news providers, as published; not verified company disclosures.\n\n- 2026-11-02 — [Advanced Micro Devices And 2 More Growth Stocks To Watch](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bac283ad27c1374832b5c48b6a485d417f53a13fbed3df9d4459d3054d88938f) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-01 — [Missed Advanced Micro Devices' 126% Run? Here Is What Holders Saw](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=52eff6d6b429e071ce57186bea9358fb4b1398b4a85672ecec4c6c74ae7c44ec) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-01 — [What To Expect In Markets This Week: AAPL, PLTR, AMD, SMCI, SHOP, Earnings, Jobs Report And More](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d16b8085ff0f4b19b91eb7fe8141f1f639bc465eefc1803211670631621e6991) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-10-31 — [Intel Has a Massive Warning for AMD Stock Investors. Is It Time to Book Profits Before Nov. 3?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=83aad663f6eaa937cae162578455c434bf35bcd03a7f792250bcb6d0d89c5056) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-10-31 — [What to Expect From AMD’s Q3 Earnings](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a500832abf226b5803e931262a69b36eb9493ff6c8e160a58ef9d9daaec34b9f) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-10-31 — [AMD Stock Fell 11% in a Day Ahead of Its November 3 Report. Here’s Why Intel’s 78% Data Center Jump Matters More to AMD Than Its PC Warning](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bc82042f1903b08727b8dc9a6447f717638be02f6f172710b950a60879d26b5c) (Finnhub)\n\n### Deepest fall, last ninety sessions: -26.1% from 2026-06-30 to 2026-07-29\n\nNo company news or results release inside the window. The news feed starts on 2026-10-31, after the fall began, so it cannot fully explain it.\n\n### Largest daily moves, last ninety sessions\n\nWith company news published from three days before to one day after each move; no news means the available feed does not explain it.\n\n| Session | Move | News around it |\n|---|---:|---|\n| 2026-07-30 | +13.0% | none in the available news |\n| 2026-09-21 | +9.9% | none in the available news |\n| 2026-10-30 | -10.9% | [Advanced Micro Devices And 2 More Growth Stocks To Watch](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bac283ad27c1374832b5c48b6a485d417f53a13fbed3df9d4459d3054d88938f) (2026-11-02); [AMD Stock Fell 11% in a Day Ahead of Its November 3 Report. Here’s Why Intel’s 78% Data Ce](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bc82042f1903b08727b8dc9a6447f717638be02f6f172710b950a60879d26b5c) (2026-10-31); [Missed Advanced Micro Devices' 126% Run? Here Is What Holders Saw](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=52eff6d6b429e071ce57186bea9358fb4b1398b4a85672ecec4c6c74ae7c44ec) (2026-11-01) |\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA sustained Hold case would be better supported if reported Data Center demand and customer deployments substantiate management’s acceleration outlook, while gross margin and operating cash flow remain resilient as mix changes. The view would weaken if revenue delivery or forward commentary disappoints, margins retreat as prior-period comparison benefits fade, or cash generation falls behind reported earnings. Improving analyst estimates are supportive but remain forecasts; they do not replace reported evidence of execution. The missing reconciled business mix and customer-level demand detail limit confidence in the durability assessment.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/)\n\n## Operating DCF: explicit assumptions\n\nYear-one revenue growth from the next twelve months' consensus revenue against the trailing twelve (half, as given, one and a half times), the excess over 3% halving each later year; trailing free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation persists and is discounted as is; terminal growth 2%, five annual periods, WACC 8-12%. Scenario inputs, not management guidance, an estimated market WACC or calibrated forecasts.\n\nNo dynamic margin model, explicit D&A/capex/NWC schedule, acquisitions or calibrated terminal economics. Net reinvestment is an aggregate assumption; no claim of intrinsic fair value or a dated price target.\n\nHistorical operating basis: 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27. This run rate is assumed to apply at the price date; no partial-year/stub-period adjustment is made. Forecast periods below are hypothetical annual steps, not fiscal guidance.\n\n| Assumed annual revenue growth | Assumed WACC | Conditional enterprise value | Terminal share of EV |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 51% in year one, fading to 6% | 8% | $246.24B | 78.0% |\n| 51% in year one, fading to 6% | 10% | $182.59B | 72.0% |\n| 51% in year one, fading to 6% | 12% | $144.50B | 66.5% |\n| 102% in year one, fading to 9% | 8% | $467.91B | 80.0% |\n| 102% in year one, fading to 9% | 10% | $344.31B | 74.4% |\n| 102% in year one, fading to 9% | 12% | $270.48B | 69.2% |\n| 153% in year one, fading to 12% | 8% | $802.85B | 81.5% |\n| 153% in year one, fading to 12% | 10% | $587.37B | 76.2% |\n| 153% in year one, fading to 12% | 12% | $458.83B | 71.3% |\n\n### Illustrative cash-flow path\n\nThis displays the assumed middle cell for auditability; it is not a preferred forecast.\n\n| Hypothetical year | Revenue | Free cash flow after stock compensation | Discounted |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 1 | $83.53B | $13.16B | $11.96B |\n| 2 | $127.49B | $20.09B | $16.60B |\n| 3 | $162.94B | $25.67B | $19.29B |\n| 4 | $188.04B | $29.63B | $20.24B |\n| 5 | $205.34B | $32.35B | $20.09B |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/)\n\n## Thesis monitoring checklist\n\nObserved baselines are reference points, not automatic trading triggers.\n\n| What to check | Observed baseline | Direction associated with more risk |\n|---|---|---|\n| Can sustained cash-flow margins support the level implied by the market? | 37.87% | lower |\n| Does revenue delivery close the premium to the peer group? | 34.12% | higher |\n| Do open-market insider transactions turn net buying? | −$114.87M | lower |\n\n## Conditional earnings and valuation sensitivity\n\nThese are mechanical assumptions applied to the current arithmetic EPS bridge and indicative multiple. They have no forecast date and do not predict the report horizon. They are not fair values, price targets, forecasts or calibrated probabilities; the unchanged-input cell simply reproduces the current closing price.\n\n| Assumed EPS change | Assumed multiple change | Conditional price | Change vs. last close |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| -10% | -15% | $386.17 | -23.5% |\n| -10% | +0% | $454.32 | -10.0% |\n| -10% | +15% | $522.47 | +3.5% |\n| +0% | -15% | $429.08 | -15.0% |\n| +0% | +0% | $504.80 | +0.0% |\n| +0% | +15% | $580.52 | +15.0% |\n| +10% | -15% | $471.99 | -6.5% |\n| +10% | +0% | $555.28 | +10.0% |\n| +10% | +15% | $638.57 | +26.5% |\n\n## Event calendar: secondary schedule\n\nDates below are provider schedules, not independently confirmed company announcements.\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2026-11-03; financial period ending not supplied by source. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/).\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2026-11-03; financial period ending 2026-09-30. [Alpha Vantage](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/).\n\n## What this report does and does not establish\n\nRead once, applies throughout: every number links to its source; the narrative is model interpretation. Guidance and consensus are forecasts, past price reactions are history, multiples and DCF cases are context — none of it is a fair value, a price target or a probability of profit.\n\n| Research dimension | Evidence status |\n|---|---|\n| Valuation | P/E on reported earnings |\n| Cash generation | from SEC filings, matched periods |\n| Earnings quality | adjustments read from SEC filings |\n| Benchmark comparison | price returns vs. QQQ and sector ETF |\n| Sensitivity | stated assumptions, not forecasts |\n| Competitive position | limited fixed peer context |\n| Next event | data-provider calendar |\n| Business mix | not reported in a usable form |\n| Discounted cash flow | stated assumptions, see table |\n\nThe API response carries each figure's source, period and calculation. Benchmarks use price returns, not dividend-reinvested returns. Trading sessions are not calendar days.", "analysts": {}, "model": "openai/gpt-6-luna", "asof_ms": 1793603312963, "last_session": "2026-10-30", "last_close": 504.79998779296875, "snapshot_sha256": "4e53b7390983a679d0ce2c486756f7d740ba2984e0e527bb2d5122e9973dbe0e", "source": "sec_edgar+yahoo_finance_free+alphavantage+finnhub+massive+fred", "data_quality": "partial", "limitations": [ "Secondary quote metrics are not independently reconciled with primary SEC facts", "Secondary fundamentals publication times are unverified; no historical ML labels", "Current session excluded until 16:15 America/New_York; early closes may be delayed", "Forward estimates, earnings calendar, macro and social sentiment are not verified", "Provider context is secondary; forecasts, schedules and management statements are not realized financial facts.", "Provider publication time and revision history may be unavailable; no historical ML labels.", "Optional alphavantage transcript: fiscal quarter not selected; this context remains unknown.", "FRED macro values use a completed US knowledge date; observation periods are not publication timestamps. No intraday historical or ML-label authority." ], "decision_state": "DIRECTIONAL_VIEW", "verification": { "cited_evidence_ids": [ "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct", "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:operating_income:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "doc:c2085562670c121b0986e66a", "doc:d9884ca3769693c7839daee1", "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps" ], "errors": [], "memo_schema": "research-memo-v2", "numerical_claims": "SERVER_RENDERED", "policy_sha256": "6284f64559cae6464f4097568538628ca9e5b2dfb98a1dd9b8b5447bd9cde223", "semantic_claims": "MODEL_INTERPRETATION_NOT_PROVEN", "version": "evidence-v1" }, "coverage": { "analyst_estimates": "SECONDARY_FORECAST", "company_outlook": "PRIMARY_TEXT", "derivatives": "UNKNOWN", "earnings_calendar": "SECONDARY_SCHEDULE", "historical_open_interest": "UNKNOWN", 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null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 15.707541459871685 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_net_margin_pct", "formatted": "15.58%", "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_net_income", "calc:ttm_revenue" ], "label": "Net margin, trailing twelve months", "metric": "ttm_net_margin_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2025-06-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 15.576806681999757 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_margin_pct", "formatted": "20.34%", "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "calc:ttm_revenue" ], "label": "Free-cash-flow margin", "metric": "ttm_fcf_margin_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2025-06-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 20.343784045515072 }, { "caveat": "Arithmetic EPS bridge; diluted share changes and per-period rounding prevent an exact standardized EPS claim.", "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "formatted": "$3.90 per share", "formula": "prior_fiscal_year+current_ytd-comparable_prior_ytd", "inputs": [ "secflow:diluted_eps:0000002488-26-000018:2025-12-27:2024-12-29", "secflow:diluted_eps:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2025-12-28", "secflow:diluted_eps:0000002488-26-000123:2025-06-28:2024-12-29" ], "label": "Diluted EPS, trailing twelve months (sum of reported periods)", "metric": "ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2025-06-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "USD/shares", "value": 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310000000.0 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_repurchases_pct_of_fcf", "formatted": "3.69%", "formula": "matched_period_ratio*100", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_repurchases", "calc:ttm_free_cashflow" ], "label": "Repurchases / free cash flow", "metric": "ttm_repurchases_pct_of_fcf", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2025-06-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 3.6891586338212545 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:diluted_share_count_yoy_pct", "formatted": "+1.78%", "formula": "comparable_quarter_change*100", "inputs": [ "sec:diluted_shares:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:diluted_shares:0000002488-26-000123:2025-06-28:2025-03-30" ], "label": "Diluted share-count change, year over year", "metric": "diluted_share_count_yoy_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2026-03-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 1.7791411042944683 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:quarterly_net_income_yoy_pct", "formatted": "+163.42%", "formula": "comparable_quarter_change*100", "inputs": [ "sec:net_income:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:net_income:0000002488-26-000123:2025-06-28:2025-03-30" ], "label": "Quarterly net-income change, year over year", "metric": "quarterly_net_income_yoy_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2026-03-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 163.41743119266056 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:quarterly_diluted_eps_yoy_pct", "formatted": "+155.56%", "formula": "comparable_quarter_change*100", "inputs": [ "sec:diluted_eps:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:diluted_eps:0000002488-26-000123:2025-06-28:2025-03-30" ], "label": "Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year", "metric": "quarterly_diluted_eps_yoy_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2026-03-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 155.55555555555554 }, { "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "formatted": "-5.54 pp", "formula": "asset-minus-QQQ_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv", "benchmark:qqq_30_session_price_return" ], "label": "Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions", "metric": "relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": "2026-09-18", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/", "unit": "percentage_points", "value": -5.536801755925768 }, { "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "formatted": "+1.72 pp", "formula": "asset-minus-SOXX_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv", "benchmark:sector_30_session_price_return" ], "label": "Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions", "metric": "relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": "2026-09-18", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/history/", "unit": "percentage_points", "value": 1.7200388966570515 }, { "caveat": "Forward multiple on analyst consensus; not a fair value. The consensus EPS agrees with Yahoo's (46 analysts) within 15%.", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_price_to_eps", "formatted": "66.36×", "formula": "last_complete_close/fiscal_year_consensus_eps", "inputs": [ "calc:last_close", "est:consensus_fy_eps:alphavantage:38cee84951a9f475ad642753" ], "label": "Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus)", "metric": "forward_price_to_eps", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/", "unit": "multiple", "value": 66.35818537608696 }, { "caveat": "Enterprise value uses reported debt and cash only (no leases or minorities); consensus revenue is a forecast.", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales", "formatted": "16.23×", "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/fiscal_year_consensus_revenue", "inputs": [ "calc:last_close", "sec:diluted_shares:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "est:consensus_fy_revenue:alphavantage:38cee84951a9f475ad642753", "sec:cash:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:current_securities:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:total_debt:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant" ], "label": "Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus)", "metric": "forward_ev_to_sales", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/", "unit": "multiple", "value": 16.22709723925006 }, { "caveat": "Enterprise value uses reported debt and cash only (no leases or minorities).", "evidence_id": "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales", "formatted": "20.04×", "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/ttm_revenue", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_revenue", "calc:last_close", "sec:diluted_shares:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:cash:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:current_securities:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:total_debt:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant" ], "label": "EV / sales, trailing twelve months", "metric": "ev_to_ttm_sales", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "multiple", "value": 20.035786944644357 }, { "caveat": "Operating income is before tax, so one-off tax items do not distort it.", "evidence_id": "calc:ev_to_ttm_operating_income", "formatted": "127.56×", "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/ttm_operating_income", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_operating_income", "calc:last_close", "sec:diluted_shares:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:cash:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:current_securities:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:total_debt:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant" ], "label": "EV / operating income, trailing twelve months", "metric": "ev_to_ttm_operating_income", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "multiple", "value": 127.55520649638335 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:latest_quarter_gross_margin_pct", "formatted": "53.77%", "formula": "1-cost_of_sales/revenue, same quarter", "inputs": [ "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:cost_of_sales:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29" ], "label": "Gross margin, latest quarter", "metric": "latest_quarter_gross_margin_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2026-03-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 53.77080443828017 }, { "caveat": "Cash less debt on one balance-sheet date; leases and investments are not included.", "evidence_id": "calc:net_cash", "formatted": "$9.88B", "formula": "cash-reported_debt, same balance-sheet date", "inputs": [ "sec:cash:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:current_securities:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:total_debt:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant" ], "label": "Net cash (cash less reported debt)", "metric": "net_cash", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 9885000000.0 }, { "caveat": "Positive: the market prices in more growth or margin than the middle DCF assumptions.", "evidence_id": "calc:market_ev_vs_dcf_mid_pct", "formatted": "140.36%", "formula": "market_enterprise_value/middle_dcf_enterprise_value-1", "inputs": [ "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales", "calc:ttm_revenue", "scenario:operating_dcf_mid" ], "label": "Market EV vs. the middle DCF case", "metric": "market_ev_vs_dcf_mid_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 140.35575537774756 }, { "caveat": "Growth the analyst consensus expects this fiscal year; a forecast.", "evidence_id": "calc:consensus_fy_revenue_growth_pct", "formatted": "+47.22%", "formula": "current_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue/last_fiscal_year_revenue-1", "inputs": [ "est:consensus_fy_revenue:yahoo" ], "label": "Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year", "metric": "consensus_fy_revenue_growth_pct", "period_end": "2026-12-27", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/", "unit": "percent", "value": 47.21988945985738 }, { "caveat": "Enterprise value on next fiscal year's consensus revenue; a forecast-based multiple.", "evidence_id": "calc:next_fy_ev_to_sales", "formatted": "9.23×", "formula": "(last_close*diluted_shares+reported_debt-cash)/next_fiscal_year_consensus_revenue", "inputs": [ "est:consensus_next_fy_revenue:yahoo", "calc:last_close", "sec:diluted_shares:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:cash:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:current_securities:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:total_debt:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant" ], "label": "EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus", "metric": "next_fy_ev_to_sales", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/", "unit": "multiple", "value": 9.228663569667148 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:peer_median_next_fy_ev_to_sales", "formatted": "7.20×", "formula": "median of 3 same-session peers", "inputs": [ "peer:NVDA:ev_to_next_fy_consensus_sales", "peer:AVGO:ev_to_next_fy_consensus_sales", "peer:QCOM:ev_to_next_fy_consensus_sales" ], "label": "Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year", "metric": "peer_median_next_fy_ev_to_sales", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/", "unit": "multiple", "value": 7.195260791151795 }, { "caveat": "Positive is a premium to the peer median; peers differ in growth and margins.", "evidence_id": "calc:next_fy_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "formatted": "28.26%", "formula": "subject_multiple/peer_median-1", "inputs": [ "calc:next_fy_ev_to_sales", "calc:peer_median_next_fy_ev_to_sales" ], "label": "Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median", "metric": "next_fy_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/", "unit": "percent", "value": 28.26030685386529 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales", "formatted": "12.10×", "formula": "median of 3 same-session peers", "inputs": [ "peer:NVDA:ev_to_fy_consensus_sales", "peer:AVGO:ev_to_fy_consensus_sales", "peer:QCOM:ev_to_fy_consensus_sales" ], "label": "Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus)", "metric": "peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/", "unit": "multiple", "value": 12.099025968130992 }, { "caveat": "Positive is a premium to the peer median; peers differ in growth and margins.", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "formatted": "34.12%", "formula": "subject_multiple/peer_median-1", "inputs": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales", "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales" ], "label": "Forward EV / sales vs. peer median", "metric": "forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/", "unit": "percent", "value": 34.11903802828813 }, { "caveat": "This fiscal year's revenue at which today's EV equals the peer median forward multiple.", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple", "formatted": "$68.40B", "formula": "enterprise_value/peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales", "inputs": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales", "est:consensus_fy_revenue:alphavantage:38cee84951a9f475ad642753", "calc:peer_median_forward_ev_to_sales" ], "label": "This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple", "metric": "forward_revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/", "unit": "USD", "value": 68400397017.77547 }, { "caveat": "Positive: the forecast must be beaten by this much to justify today's EV at the peer forward multiple.", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_revenue_gap_to_peer_multiple_pct", "formatted": "34.12%", "formula": "forward_revenue_needed/forecast_revenue-1", "inputs": [ "calc:forward_revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple", "est:consensus_fy_revenue:alphavantage:38cee84951a9f475ad642753" ], "label": "Needed revenue vs. the forecast", "metric": "forward_revenue_gap_to_peer_multiple_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/", "unit": "percent", "value": 34.11903802828811 }, { "caveat": "Trailing free cash flow over today's enterprise value; stock compensation not deducted.", "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_yield_pct", "formatted": "1.02%", "formula": "ttm_free_cashflow/enterprise_value*100", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "calc:last_close", "sec:diluted_shares:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:cash:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:current_securities:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant", "sec:total_debt:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:instant" ], "label": "Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value", "metric": "ttm_fcf_yield_pct", 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"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 0.786390960909276 }, { "caveat": "Steady free-cash-flow margin today's enterprise value assumes on the forecast growth path; compare with the trailing free-cash-flow margin.", "evidence_id": "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "formatted": "37.87%", "formula": "market_ev/discounted_value_per_unit_fcf_margin(forecast_growth_fading_to_3pct, wacc10pct, terminal2pct)", "inputs": [ "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales", "calc:ttm_revenue", "calc:ntm_revenue_growth_pct" ], "label": "Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies", "metric": "dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/", "unit": "percent", "value": 37.87036087636802 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_net_interest_income", "formatted": "$215.00M", "formula": "published_annual_flow", "inputs": [ "secflow:net_interest_income:0000002488-26-000018:2025-12-27:2024-12-29" ], "label": "Net interest income, trailing twelve months", "metric": "ttm_net_interest_income", "period_end": "2025-12-27", "period_start": "2024-12-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000018/0000002488-26-000018-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 215000000.0 }, { "caveat": "Free-cash-flow margin treating stock compensation as a cash cost.", "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct", "formatted": "15.76%", "formula": "(ttm_free_cashflow-ttm_share_based_compensation)/ttm_revenue*100", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "calc:ttm_share_based_compensation", "calc:ttm_revenue" ], "label": "Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation", "metric": "ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2025-06-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": 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"subject_multiple/peer_median-1", "inputs": [ "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:peer_median_pe" ], "label": "Earnings multiple vs. peer median", "metric": "pe_premium_to_peers_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 400.3117313395454 }, { "caveat": "Revenue at which today's enterprise value equals the peer median EV/sales.", "evidence_id": "calc:revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple", "formatted": "$50.34B", "formula": "enterprise_value/peer_median_ev_to_sales", "inputs": [ "calc:ev_to_ttm_sales", "calc:ttm_revenue", "calc:peer_median_ev_to_sales" ], "label": "Revenue needed to trade at the peer EV / sales", "metric": "revenue_needed_at_peer_multiple", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": 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"period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "percent", "value": -26.053946839070953 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:realized_vol_30_annualized_pct", "formatted": "66.08%", "formula": "sample_stdev(last_30_log_returns)*sqrt(annual_sessions)*100", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Realized volatility, thirty sessions, annualized", "metric": "realized_vol_30_annualized_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "percent", "value": 66.07592211504586 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:return_30_observations_pct", "formatted": "-9.83%", "formula": "(close/close_30_observations_ago-1)*100", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Price change, thirty trading sessions", "metric": "return_30_observations_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "percent", "value": -9.82816241138471 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:rsi_14_wilder", "formatted": "39.67 index", "formula": "Wilder_RSI_14_full_available_history", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "RSI, fourteen sessions", "metric": "rsi_14_wilder", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "index", "value": 39.66675258104968 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:sma_20", "formatted": "$570.44", "formula": "mean(last_20_complete_closes)", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Twenty-session moving average", "metric": "sma_20", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "USD", "value": 570.4404937744141 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:sma_50", "formatted": "$548.29", "formula": "mean(last_50_complete_closes)", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Fifty-session moving average", "metric": "sma_50", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "USD", "value": 548.2901977539062 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:sma_200", "formatted": "$410.49", "formula": "mean(last_200_complete_closes)", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Two-hundred-session moving average", "metric": "sma_200", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "USD", "value": 410.4886998748779 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "formatted": "$11.54B", "formula": null, "inputs": [], "label": "Reported quarterly revenue", "metric": "revenue", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2026-03-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 11536000000.0 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "sec:net_income:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "formatted": "$2.30B", "formula": null, "inputs": [], "label": "Reported quarterly net income", "metric": "net_income", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2026-03-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 2297000000.0 } ], "completeness": { "benchmark": "SECONDARY_PRICE_RETURNS", "business_mix": "ISSUER_MAPPING_NOT_AVAILABLE", "cash_generation": "PRIMARY_PERIOD_MATCHED", "competitive_context": "LIMITED_FIXED_PEER_CONTEXT", "earnings_quality": "PRIMARY_TEXT_OBSERVED", "event_timing": "SECONDARY_CALENDAR_ONLY", "operating_dcf": "EXPLICIT_OPERATING_DCF_SENSITIVITY", "sensitivity": "EXPLICIT_HYPOTHETICAL_ASSUMPTIONS", "valuation": "INDICATIVE_EPS_BRIDGE" }, "consistency_issues": [], "customer_markdown": "# Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)\n\n**Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nData as of 02 Nov 2026, 07:08 UTC. Last completed session: 2026-10-30. Incomplete-session prices are excluded.\n\n**Confidence: low** — the company reports on 2026-11-03 (in 1 days); this view depends on its results.\n\nCompany report on 2026-11-03 — in 1 days. (consensus by source — Yahoo Finance: EPS 1.939; Alpha Vantage: EPS 1.68; revenue $13,092.1M) [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/)\n\n**Blind spots:** this report lacks management call transcript.\n\n**How the rating is set:** the rule gives Hold (valuation points rich; analysts raised this year's EPS estimate; revenue expected to grow fast this year).\n\n## The quick read\n\nAMD’s growth and improving analyst estimates support the business case, but valuation remains demanding. The single gap driving a Hold is the free-cash-flow margin implied by today’s price versus the margin delivered: the implied level is far above trailing results. Confirmation of Data Center acceleration and durable margins in the scheduled report would change that balance; weaker delivery would deepen the valuation concern.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html)\n\n## At a glance\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $504.80 | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +50.11% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 17.25% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 129.44× | Price 2026-10-30; earnings basis ended 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 66.36× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $8.40B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions | -5.54 pp | 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/) |\n| Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions | +1.72 pp | 2026-09-18 to 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/history/) |\n| Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions | -26.05% | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nThe latest reported quarter showed revenue growth and higher operating income, while the company’s published outlook expects Data Center sales to accelerate and drive stronger overall growth and earnings expansion. That makes accelerator demand, customer deployments, supply execution and product mix central to the thesis. The filing attributes the gross-margin comparison partly to the absence of prior-period export-control-related inventory charges and to favorable mix, including greater Data Center revenue; that cautions against treating the improvement as purely recurring. Reconciled business-mix partitions are unavailable, so category contributions and weakening segments cannot be independently assessed.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/amd-20260627.htm)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe forward EV-to-sales multiple is at a premium to the peer median; the forecast revenue needed to match that peer multiple is materially above consensus. Justifying the premium therefore requires revenue to exceed expectations and convert into durable margins. AMD’s indicative trailing earnings multiple is also much higher than the available peer P/E observations, although peers differ in business mix and profitability. The middle operating DCF sensitivity is well below market enterprise value. It assumes free cash flow after stock compensation, persistent trailing margin, aggregate net reinvestment, forecast revenue growth, a discount-rate range and terminal growth; value is particularly sensitive to margin persistence and terminal contribution. These hypothetical inputs are not verified forecasts, and the equity bridge is unavailable.\n\n[AVGO consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [AVGO filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [AVGO consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Diluted EPS, trailing twelve months (sum of reported periods) | $3.90 per share | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 129.44× | Price 2026-10-30; earnings basis ended 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Earnings yield, trailing twelve months | 0.77% | Price 2026-10-30; earnings basis ended 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 66.36× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| EV / operating income, trailing twelve months | 127.56× | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| EV / sales, trailing twelve months | 20.04× | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Forward EV / sales (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 16.23× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales | 16.44× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| EV / sales vs. peer median | 21.88% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| Peer median earnings multiple | 25.87× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| Earnings multiple vs. peer median | 400.31% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) · [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) |\n| Revenue growth the consensus expects this fiscal year | +47.22% | 2026-12-27 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Peer median forward EV / sales (consensus) | 12.10× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| Forward EV / sales vs. peer median | 34.12% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| This year's revenue needed at the peer forward multiple | $68.40B | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| EV / sales on next fiscal year's consensus | 9.23× | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Peer median EV / sales, next fiscal year | 7.20× | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| Next-year EV / sales vs. peer median | 28.26% | 2026-10-30 | [AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield on enterprise value | 1.02% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow yield after stock compensation | 0.79% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Net interest income, trailing twelve months | $215.00M | 2024-12-29 to 2025-12-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000018/0000002488-26-000018-index.html) |\n| Steady free-cash-flow margin today's price implies | 37.87% | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin | 20.34% | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation | 15.76% | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Market EV vs. the middle DCF case | 140.36% | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n\n**Verdict:** on this fiscal year's consensus revenue, AMD trades at 16.23× forward sales, a 34% premium to the peer median of 12.10× (on trailing sales: 20.04×, a 22% premium). At the peer forward multiple, today's price needs about $68.40B of revenue this year, 34% above the forecast. On next fiscal year's consensus it trades at 9.23×, a 28% premium to the peer median of 7.20×. On the forecast growth path, today's enterprise value implies a steady free-cash-flow margin of 38%, against 20% over the last twelve months (16% after stock compensation). Free cash flow yields 1.0% of enterprise value (0.8% after stock compensation).\n\n### Bear, base and bull on this year's revenue\n\n| Case | Revenue | Basis | EV / sales | Multiple | Price | Change vs. last close |\n|---|---:|---|---:|---|---:|---:|\n| Bear | $45.90B | forecast less 10% | 12.10× | peer median | $340.70 | -32.5% |\n| Base | $51.00B | forecast | 12.10× | peer median | $377.90 | -25.1% |\n| Bull | $56.10B | forecast plus 10% | 16.23× | today's | $554.68 | +9.9% |\n\nTrailing EPS is the sum of reported periods, so share-count changes make it approximate.\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: companies in the same industry (Semiconductors); business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| AMD | 2026-10-30 | 2026-06-27 | 129.44× | 20.04× | 16.23× | 15.58% | 1.57× |\n| [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-07-26 | 25.87× | 16.44× | 12.10× | 63.66% | 0.70× |\n| [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-08-02 | 41.59× | 18.28× | 15.37× | 42.94% | 1.06× |\n| [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-06-28 | 18.83× | 4.11× | 4.23× | 21.01% | 1.34× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nTTM operating cash flow exceeds reported net income, and after cash capex free cash flow remains substantial. Matched-period cash conversion is above net income, but working-capital movements and noncash adjustments can affect that relationship. Treating stock compensation as a cash cost reduces the resulting margin meaningfully; repurchases are comparatively modest and do not offset dilution automatically. The filing also describes a receivable subject to impairment assessment and substantial future amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, relevant to interpreting reported earnings and asset quality.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Revenue, trailing twelve months | $41.30B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Net income, trailing twelve months | $6.43B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow, trailing twelve months | $10.08B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $1.68B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months | $8.40B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Operating cash flow / net income | 1.57× | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Share-based compensation, trailing twelve months | $1.90B | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Share repurchases, trailing twelve months | $310.00M | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Repurchases / free cash flow | 3.69% | 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Diluted share-count change, year over year | +1.78% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Quarterly net-income change, year over year | +163.42% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Quarterly diluted-EPS change, year over year | +155.56% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n\nFree cash flow here means operating cash flow less cash capital expenditure; it does not remove stock compensation or adjust for acquisitions and leases. A reference to adjustments in a filing is a review topic, not an automatically verified normalization.\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nThe strongest challenge is that rapid forecast growth could validate the premium, while an abrupt valuation reset could overwhelm operating progress. The recent peak-to-trough drawdown began before the available news feed, and no results release or supplied news item establishes its cause; how much bad news it already reflects is therefore unknown. The largest recent down day coincided with news items, but the available evidence does not establish which item caused the move. Gross-margin comparison also benefited from prior-period charges not recurring and favorable mix.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/amd-20260627.htm)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe scheduled report is the immediate company-specific test: investors need evidence that Data Center acceleration, customer deployments and supply execution support the outlook without sacrificing margins. Company guidance is a management claim, while analyst estimates and calendar entries are secondary schedules, not realized results. Past reactions to results releases have typically been meaningful, with both sharp rises and declines; that history underscores event sensitivity, not direction. The supplied large daily moves lack explanatory news for two observations, and the available news does not establish the cause of the drawdown.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/amdq22026earningsslidesf.htm) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/)\n\n### Into the report on 2026-11-03\n\nWhat the report will be measured against.\n\n| Measure | Reading | Basis | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Consensus revenue for the quarter | $13.09B | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $1.94 | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/) |\n| Consensus EPS | $1.68 | Alpha Vantage | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n| Gross margin, latest quarter | 53.77% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Net cash (cash less reported debt) | $9.88B | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this quarter, last 30 days | +0.5% (1 raised, 0 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| EPS consensus revisions, this fiscal year, last 30 days | +0.2% (5 raised, 1 cut) | Yahoo Finance | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) |\n| Insider open-market trades, last 90 days | bought $0.00, sold $114.87M | SEC Form 4 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=2488&type=4) |\n\n**What would change the view:** revenue above the $13.09B consensus with full-year guidance held would argue for a positive view; revenue below it or lower full-year guidance for a negative one.\n\n**Triggers** (computed from the figures above):\n\n| What | Threshold | Effect |\n|---|---|---|\n| Quarterly revenue | above $13.09B at the 2026-11-03 report | supports the case |\n| Quarterly EPS | above $1.94 at the 2026-11-03 report | supports the case |\n| Gross margin | below 53.8% at the 2026-11-03 report | weakens the case |\n| Share price | below $377.90 | supports the case |\n\n### Around the next report\n\nPrice paths if the company reports on 2026-11-03 (in 1 days) moves the stock the way past results did. Past reactions are observed history.\n\n| Scenario | Price | Change vs. last close | Basis |\n|---|---:|---:|---|\n| Typical past rise | $517.48 | +2.5% | median of 3 past rises |\n| Largest past rise | $598.77 | +18.6% | largest of 3 past rises |\n| Typical past fall | $470.82 | -6.7% | median of 4 past falls |\n| Largest past fall | $417.40 | -17.3% | largest of 4 past falls |\n\nPast reactions to results releases (close before the release to close after it):\n\n| Release | Timing | Reaction session | Move |\n|---|---|---|---:|\n| [2026-08-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/0000002488-26-000121-index.html) | after the close | 2026-08-05 | -7.0% |\n| [2026-05-05](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000072/0000002488-26-000072-index.html) | after the close | 2026-05-06 | +18.6% |\n| [2026-02-03](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000014/0000002488-26-000014-index.html) | after the close | 2026-02-04 | -17.3% |\n| [2025-11-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000163/0000002488-25-000163-index.html) | after the close | 2025-11-05 | +2.5% |\n| [2025-08-05](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000106/0000002488-25-000106-index.html) | after the close | 2025-08-06 | -6.4% |\n| [2025-05-06](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000045/0000002488-25-000045-index.html) | after the close | 2025-05-07 | +1.8% |\n| [2025-02-04](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248825000009/0000002488-25-000009-index.html) | after the close | 2025-02-05 | -6.3% |\n\n### Recent company news\n\nHeadlines from news providers, as published; not verified company disclosures.\n\n- 2026-11-02 — [Advanced Micro Devices And 2 More Growth Stocks To Watch](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bac283ad27c1374832b5c48b6a485d417f53a13fbed3df9d4459d3054d88938f) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-01 — [Missed Advanced Micro Devices' 126% Run? Here Is What Holders Saw](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=52eff6d6b429e071ce57186bea9358fb4b1398b4a85672ecec4c6c74ae7c44ec) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-11-01 — [What To Expect In Markets This Week: AAPL, PLTR, AMD, SMCI, SHOP, Earnings, Jobs Report And More](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=d16b8085ff0f4b19b91eb7fe8141f1f639bc465eefc1803211670631621e6991) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-10-31 — [Intel Has a Massive Warning for AMD Stock Investors. Is It Time to Book Profits Before Nov. 3?](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=83aad663f6eaa937cae162578455c434bf35bcd03a7f792250bcb6d0d89c5056) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-10-31 — [What to Expect From AMD’s Q3 Earnings](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=a500832abf226b5803e931262a69b36eb9493ff6c8e160a58ef9d9daaec34b9f) (Finnhub)\n\n- 2026-10-31 — [AMD Stock Fell 11% in a Day Ahead of Its November 3 Report. Here’s Why Intel’s 78% Data Center Jump Matters More to AMD Than Its PC Warning](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bc82042f1903b08727b8dc9a6447f717638be02f6f172710b950a60879d26b5c) (Finnhub)\n\n### Deepest fall, last ninety sessions: -26.1% from 2026-06-30 to 2026-07-29\n\nNo company news or results release inside the window. The news feed starts on 2026-10-31, after the fall began, so it cannot fully explain it.\n\n### Largest daily moves, last ninety sessions\n\nWith company news published from three days before to one day after each move; no news means the available feed does not explain it.\n\n| Session | Move | News around it |\n|---|---:|---|\n| 2026-07-30 | +13.0% | none in the available news |\n| 2026-09-21 | +9.9% | none in the available news |\n| 2026-10-30 | -10.9% | [Advanced Micro Devices And 2 More Growth Stocks To Watch](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bac283ad27c1374832b5c48b6a485d417f53a13fbed3df9d4459d3054d88938f) (2026-11-02); [AMD Stock Fell 11% in a Day Ahead of Its November 3 Report. Here’s Why Intel’s 78% Data Ce](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=bc82042f1903b08727b8dc9a6447f717638be02f6f172710b950a60879d26b5c) (2026-10-31); [Missed Advanced Micro Devices' 126% Run? Here Is What Holders Saw](https://finnhub.io/api/news?id=52eff6d6b429e071ce57186bea9358fb4b1398b4a85672ecec4c6c74ae7c44ec) (2026-11-01) |\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA sustained Hold case would be better supported if reported Data Center demand and customer deployments substantiate management’s acceleration outlook, while gross margin and operating cash flow remain resilient as mix changes. The view would weaken if revenue delivery or forward commentary disappoints, margins retreat as prior-period comparison benefits fade, or cash generation falls behind reported earnings. Improving analyst estimates are supportive but remain forecasts; they do not replace reported evidence of execution. The missing reconciled business mix and customer-level demand detail limit confidence in the durability assessment.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/)\n\n## Operating DCF: explicit assumptions\n\nYear-one revenue growth from the next twelve months' consensus revenue against the trailing twelve (half, as given, one and a half times), the excess over 3% halving each later year; trailing free-cash-flow margin after stock compensation persists and is discounted as is; terminal growth 2%, five annual periods, WACC 8-12%. Scenario inputs, not management guidance, an estimated market WACC or calibrated forecasts.\n\nNo dynamic margin model, explicit D&A/capex/NWC schedule, acquisitions or calibrated terminal economics. Net reinvestment is an aggregate assumption; no claim of intrinsic fair value or a dated price target.\n\nHistorical operating basis: 2025-06-29 to 2026-06-27. This run rate is assumed to apply at the price date; no partial-year/stub-period adjustment is made. Forecast periods below are hypothetical annual steps, not fiscal guidance.\n\n| Assumed annual revenue growth | Assumed WACC | Conditional enterprise value | Terminal share of EV |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 51% in year one, fading to 6% | 8% | $246.24B | 78.0% |\n| 51% in year one, fading to 6% | 10% | $182.59B | 72.0% |\n| 51% in year one, fading to 6% | 12% | $144.50B | 66.5% |\n| 102% in year one, fading to 9% | 8% | $467.91B | 80.0% |\n| 102% in year one, fading to 9% | 10% | $344.31B | 74.4% |\n| 102% in year one, fading to 9% | 12% | $270.48B | 69.2% |\n| 153% in year one, fading to 12% | 8% | $802.85B | 81.5% |\n| 153% in year one, fading to 12% | 10% | $587.37B | 76.2% |\n| 153% in year one, fading to 12% | 12% | $458.83B | 71.3% |\n\n### Illustrative cash-flow path\n\nThis displays the assumed middle cell for auditability; it is not a preferred forecast.\n\n| Hypothetical year | Revenue | Free cash flow after stock compensation | Discounted |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| 1 | $83.53B | $13.16B | $11.96B |\n| 2 | $127.49B | $20.09B | $16.60B |\n| 3 | $162.94B | $25.67B | $19.29B |\n| 4 | $188.04B | $29.63B | $20.24B |\n| 5 | $205.34B | $32.35B | $20.09B |\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/)\n\n## Thesis monitoring checklist\n\nObserved baselines are reference points, not automatic trading triggers.\n\n| What to check | Observed baseline | Direction associated with more risk |\n|---|---|---|\n| Can sustained cash-flow margins support the level implied by the market? | 37.87% | lower |\n| Does revenue delivery close the premium to the peer group? | 34.12% | higher |\n| Do open-market insider transactions turn net buying? | −$114.87M | lower |\n\n## Conditional earnings and valuation sensitivity\n\nThese are mechanical assumptions applied to the current arithmetic EPS bridge and indicative multiple. They have no forecast date and do not predict the report horizon. They are not fair values, price targets, forecasts or calibrated probabilities; the unchanged-input cell simply reproduces the current closing price.\n\n| Assumed EPS change | Assumed multiple change | Conditional price | Change vs. last close |\n|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| -10% | -15% | $386.17 | -23.5% |\n| -10% | +0% | $454.32 | -10.0% |\n| -10% | +15% | $522.47 | +3.5% |\n| +0% | -15% | $429.08 | -15.0% |\n| +0% | +0% | $504.80 | +0.0% |\n| +0% | +15% | $580.52 | +15.0% |\n| +10% | -15% | $471.99 | -6.5% |\n| +10% | +0% | $555.28 | +10.0% |\n| +10% | +15% | $638.57 | +26.5% |\n\n## Event calendar: secondary schedule\n\nDates below are provider schedules, not independently confirmed company announcements.\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2026-11-03; financial period ending not supplied by source. [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/).\n\n- Scheduled earnings date: 2026-11-03; financial period ending 2026-09-30. [Alpha Vantage](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/).\n\n## What this report does and does not establish\n\nRead once, applies throughout: every number links to its source; the narrative is model interpretation. Guidance and consensus are forecasts, past price reactions are history, multiples and DCF cases are context — none of it is a fair value, a price target or a probability of profit.\n\n| Research dimension | Evidence status |\n|---|---|\n| Valuation | P/E on reported earnings |\n| Cash generation | from SEC filings, matched periods |\n| Earnings quality | adjustments read from SEC filings |\n| Benchmark comparison | price returns vs. QQQ and sector ETF |\n| Sensitivity | stated assumptions, not forecasts |\n| Competitive position | limited fixed peer context |\n| Next event | data-provider calendar |\n| Business mix | not reported in a usable form |\n| Discounted cash flow | stated assumptions, see table |\n\nThe API response carries each figure's source, period and calculation. Benchmarks use price returns, not dividend-reinvested returns. Trading sessions are not calendar days.", "editorial_markdown": "# Growth is strong, but valuation leaves limited room for error\n\n**AMD · Research view: Hold · Horizon: 3m**\n\nSource snapshot: 02 Nov 2026, 07:08 UTC. Last completed market session: 2026-10-30.\n\nAMD’s growth and improving analyst estimates support the business case, but valuation remains demanding. The single gap driving a Hold is the free-cash-flow margin implied by today’s price versus the margin delivered: the implied level is far above trailing results. Confirmation of Data Center acceleration and durable margins in the scheduled report would change that balance; weaker delivery would deepen the valuation concern.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html)\n\n| Metric | Reading | Period | Source |\n|---|---:|---|---|\n| Last closing price | $504.80 | 2026-10-30 | [Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) |\n| Quarterly revenue growth, year over year | +50.11% | 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Quarterly operating margin | 17.25% | 2026-03-29 to 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| P/E, trailing twelve months | 129.44× | Price 2026-10-30; earnings basis ended 2026-06-27 | [Source](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) |\n| Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus) | 66.36× | 2026-12-31 | [Source](https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/) |\n\n## What drives the case\n\nThe latest reported quarter showed revenue growth and higher operating income, while the company’s published outlook expects Data Center sales to accelerate and drive stronger overall growth and earnings expansion. That makes accelerator demand, customer deployments, supply execution and product mix central to the thesis. The filing attributes the gross-margin comparison partly to the absence of prior-period export-control-related inventory charges and to favorable mix, including greater Data Center revenue; that cautions against treating the improvement as purely recurring. Reconciled business-mix partitions are unavailable, so category contributions and weakening segments cannot be independently assessed.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/amd-20260627.htm)\n\n## What the current price implies\n\nThe forward EV-to-sales multiple is at a premium to the peer median; the forecast revenue needed to match that peer multiple is materially above consensus. Justifying the premium therefore requires revenue to exceed expectations and convert into durable margins. AMD’s indicative trailing earnings multiple is also much higher than the available peer P/E observations, although peers differ in business mix and profitability. The middle operating DCF sensitivity is well below market enterprise value. It assumes free cash flow after stock compensation, persistent trailing margin, aggregate net reinvestment, forecast revenue growth, a discount-rate range and terminal growth; value is particularly sensitive to margin persistence and terminal contribution. These hypothetical inputs are not verified forecasts, and the equity bridge is unavailable.\n\n[AVGO consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/analysis/) · [NVDA consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) · [QCOM consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/analysis/) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [AVGO filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) · [AVGO consensus](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/history/)\n\n### Peers, priced on the same day\n\nPeers: companies in the same industry (Semiconductors); business models and fiscal year-ends differ.\n\nP/E uses trailing EPS summed from reported quarters; EV / sales uses reported debt and cash, on trailing revenue and on this fiscal year's consensus.\n\n| Company | Price session | Earnings basis ended | P/E (trailing) | EV / sales | Forward EV / sales | TTM net margin | CFO / net income |\n|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\n| AMD | 2026-10-30 | 2026-06-27 | 129.44× | 20.04× | 16.23× | 15.58% | 1.57× |\n| [NVDA](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/0001045810-26-000021-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-07-26 | 25.87× | 16.44× | 12.10× | 63.66% | 0.70× |\n| [AVGO](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000121/0001730168-25-000121-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-08-02 | 41.59× | 18.28× | 15.37× | 42.94% | 1.06× |\n| [QCOM](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/804328/000080432825000085/0000804328-25-000085-index.html) | 2026-10-30 | 2026-06-28 | 18.83× | 4.11× | 4.23× | 21.01% | 1.34× |\n\n## Earnings quality and cash generation\n\nTTM operating cash flow exceeds reported net income, and after cash capex free cash flow remains substantial. Matched-period cash conversion is above net income, but working-capital movements and noncash adjustments can affect that relationship. Treating stock compensation as a cash cost reduces the resulting margin meaningfully; repurchases are comparatively modest and do not offset dilution automatically. The filing also describes a receivable subject to impairment assessment and substantial future amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, relevant to interpreting reported earnings and asset quality.\n\n[Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html)\n\n## The strongest counter-case\n\nThe strongest challenge is that rapid forecast growth could validate the premium, while an abrupt valuation reset could overwhelm operating progress. The recent peak-to-trough drawdown began before the available news feed, and no results release or supplied news item establishes its cause; how much bad news it already reflects is therefore unknown. The largest recent down day coincided with news items, but the available evidence does not establish which item caused the move. Gross-margin comparison also benefited from prior-period charges not recurring and favorable mix.\n\n[Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/amd-20260627.htm)\n\n## Events and evidence to watch\n\nThe scheduled report is the immediate company-specific test: investors need evidence that Data Center acceleration, customer deployments and supply execution support the outlook without sacrificing margins. Company guidance is a management claim, while analyst estimates and calendar entries are secondary schedules, not realized results. Past reactions to results releases have typically been meaningful, with both sharp rises and declines; that history underscores event sensitivity, not direction. The supplied large daily moves lack explanatory news for two observations, and the available news does not establish the cause of the drawdown.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/amdq22026earningsslidesf.htm) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/)\n\n## What would change our view\n\nA sustained Hold case would be better supported if reported Data Center demand and customer deployments substantiate management’s acceleration outlook, while gross margin and operating cash flow remain resilient as mix changes. The view would weaken if revenue delivery or forward commentary disappoints, margins retreat as prior-period comparison benefits fade, or cash generation falls behind reported earnings. Improving analyst estimates are supportive but remain forecasts; they do not replace reported evidence of execution. The missing reconciled business mix and customer-level demand detail limit confidence in the durability assessment.\n\n[SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000121/q22026991.htm) · [Company filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html) · [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/analysis/)\n\n## Sources and scope\n\nAI-assisted research using published financial evidence and labelled observed market/provider context. Indicative EPS valuation is arithmetic and approximate. Schedules and forecasts are not reported outcomes. Sensitivities are hypothetical, not price targets. The structured report retains the full evidence and missing dimensions.", "headline": "Growth is strong, but valuation leaves limited room for error", "key_metrics": [ { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:last_close", "formatted": "$504.80", "formula": "last_complete_daily_close", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Last closing price", "metric": "last_close", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "USD", "value": 504.79998779296875 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:revenue_yoy_pct", "formatted": "+50.11%", "formula": "(current_comparable_quarter/prior_year_quarter-1)*100", "inputs": [ "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2025-06-28:2025-03-30" ], "label": "Quarterly revenue growth, year over year", "metric": "revenue_yoy_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 50.11060507482108 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:operating_margin_pct", "formatted": "17.25%", "formula": "matched_period_income/revenue*100", "inputs": [ "sec:operating_income:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29" ], "label": "Quarterly operating margin", "metric": "operating_margin_pct", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2026-03-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "percent", "value": 17.250346740638005 }, { "caveat": "Indicative multiple; EPS arithmetic is approximate, not a fair value or forward P/E.", "evidence_id": "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "formatted": "129.44×", "formula": "last_complete_close/arithmetic_ttm_diluted_eps", "inputs": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "label": "P/E, trailing twelve months", "metric": "indicative_price_to_eps", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": null, "price_asof": "2026-10-30", "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "multiple", "value": 129.4358943058894 }, { "caveat": "Forward multiple on analyst consensus; not a fair value. The consensus EPS agrees with Yahoo's (46 analysts) within 15%.", "evidence_id": "calc:forward_price_to_eps", "formatted": "66.36×", "formula": "last_complete_close/fiscal_year_consensus_eps", "inputs": [ "calc:last_close", "est:consensus_fy_eps:alphavantage:38cee84951a9f475ad642753" ], "label": "Forward P/E (fiscal-year analyst consensus)", "metric": "forward_price_to_eps", "period_end": "2026-12-31", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.alphavantage.co/documentation/", "unit": "multiple", "value": 66.35818537608696 }, { "caveat": "This definition does not adjust for acquisitions, leases or stock compensation.", "evidence_id": "calc:ttm_free_cashflow", "formatted": "$8.40B", "formula": "cash_from_operations-minus-cash_capital_expenditure", "inputs": [ "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "calc:ttm_capex" ], "label": "Cash flow less capital expenditure, trailing twelve months", "metric": "ttm_free_cashflow", "period_end": "2026-06-27", "period_start": "2025-06-29", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2488/000000248826000123/0000002488-26-000123-index.html", "unit": "USD", "value": 8403000000.0 }, { "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "formatted": "-5.54 pp", "formula": "asset-minus-QQQ_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv", "benchmark:qqq_30_session_price_return" ], "label": "Price return vs. QQQ, last thirty sessions", "metric": "relative_to_qqq_30_sessions_pp", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": "2026-09-18", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ/history/", "unit": "percentage_points", "value": -5.536801755925768 }, { "caveat": "Price returns exclude dividends; benchmark choice is context, not a peer valuation.", "evidence_id": "calc:relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "formatted": "+1.72 pp", "formula": "asset-minus-SOXX_price_return_over_30_common_complete_sessions", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv", "benchmark:sector_30_session_price_return" ], "label": "Price return vs. sector ETF, last thirty sessions", "metric": "relative_to_sector_30_sessions_pp", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": "2026-09-18", "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/history/", "unit": "percentage_points", "value": 1.7200388966570515 }, { "caveat": null, "evidence_id": "calc:max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "formatted": "-26.05%", "formula": "min(close/running_peak-1)*100_in_last_90_observations", "inputs": [ "snapshot:daily_ohlcv" ], "label": "Largest close-to-close drawdown, ninety sessions", "metric": "max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "period_end": "2026-10-30", "period_start": null, "price_asof": null, "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/history/", "unit": "percent", "value": -26.053946839070953 } ], "language": "en", "predictive_confidence": null, "reverse_valuation": [ { "assumed_multiple": 25, "eps_change_required_pct": 417.7435772235576, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 20.19199951171875 }, { "assumed_multiple": 30, "eps_change_required_pct": 331.4529810196313, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 16.826666259765624 }, { "assumed_multiple": 35, "eps_change_required_pct": 269.81684087396974, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 14.422856794084822 }, { "assumed_multiple": 40, "eps_change_required_pct": 223.58973576472354, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 12.61999969482422 }, { "assumed_multiple": 45, "eps_change_required_pct": 187.63532067975427, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:last_close", "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic" ], "formula": "current_close/assumed_multiple", "required_eps": 11.217777506510417 } ], "sections": [ { "evidence_ids": [ "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:operating_income:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "doc:c2085562670c121b0986e66a", "doc:d9884ca3769693c7839daee1" ], "key": "business_drivers", "text": "The latest reported quarter showed revenue growth and higher operating income, while the company’s published outlook expects Data Center sales to accelerate and drive stronger overall growth and earnings expansion. That makes accelerator demand, customer deployments, supply execution and product mix central to the thesis. The filing attributes the gross-margin comparison partly to the absence of prior-period export-control-related inventory charges and to favorable mix, including greater Data Center revenue; that cautions against treating the improvement as purely recurring. Reconciled business-mix partitions are unavailable, so category contributions and weakening segments cannot be independently assessed.", "title": "What drives the case" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "peer:AVGO:indicative_pe" ], "key": "valuation", "text": "The forward EV-to-sales multiple is at a premium to the peer median; the forecast revenue needed to match that peer multiple is materially above consensus. Justifying the premium therefore requires revenue to exceed expectations and convert into durable margins. AMD’s indicative trailing earnings multiple is also much higher than the available peer P/E observations, although peers differ in business mix and profitability. The middle operating DCF sensitivity is well below market enterprise value. It assumes free cash flow after stock compensation, persistent trailing margin, aggregate net reinvestment, forecast revenue growth, a discount-rate range and terminal growth; value is particularly sensitive to margin persistence and terminal contribution. These hypothetical inputs are not verified forecasts, and the equity bridge is unavailable.", "title": "What the current price implies" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "calc:ttm_net_income", "calc:ttm_cash_conversion", "calc:ttm_free_cashflow" ], "key": "earnings_quality", "text": "TTM operating cash flow exceeds reported net income, and after cash capex free cash flow remains substantial. Matched-period cash conversion is above net income, but working-capital movements and noncash adjustments can affect that relationship. Treating stock compensation as a cash cost reduces the resulting margin meaningfully; repurchases are comparatively modest and do not offset dilution automatically. The filing also describes a receivable subject to impairment assessment and substantial future amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, relevant to interpreting reported earnings and asset quality.", "title": "Earnings quality and cash generation" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "calc:large_daily_move_3_pct", "doc:d9884ca3769693c7839daee1" ], "key": "risk_case", "text": "The strongest challenge is that rapid forecast growth could validate the premium, while an abrupt valuation reset could overwhelm operating progress. The recent peak-to-trough drawdown began before the available news feed, and no results release or supplied news item establishes its cause; how much bad news it already reflects is therefore unknown. The largest recent down day coincided with news items, but the available evidence does not establish which item caused the move. Gross-margin comparison also benefited from prior-period charges not recurring and favorable mix.", "title": "The strongest counter-case" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "doc:c2085562670c121b0986e66a", "doc:b1b1220b786fa33442c2cf84", "calc:earnings_move_median_abs_pct", "calc:earnings_move_max_down_pct" ], "key": "catalysts", "text": "The scheduled report is the immediate company-specific test: investors need evidence that Data Center acceleration, customer deployments and supply execution support the outlook without sacrificing margins. Company guidance is a management claim, while analyst estimates and calendar entries are secondary schedules, not realized results. Past reactions to results releases have typically been meaningful, with both sharp rises and declines; that history underscores event sensitivity, not direction. The supplied large daily moves lack explanatory news for two observations, and the available news does not establish the cause of the drawdown.", "title": "Events and evidence to watch" }, { "evidence_ids": [ "doc:c2085562670c121b0986e66a", "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct" ], "key": "change_conditions", "text": "A sustained Hold case would be better supported if reported Data Center demand and customer deployments substantiate management’s acceleration outlook, while gross margin and operating cash flow remain resilient as mix changes. The view would weaken if revenue delivery or forward commentary disappoints, margins retreat as prior-period comparison benefits fade, or cash generation falls behind reported earnings. Improving analyst estimates are supportive but remain forecasts; they do not replace reported evidence of execution. The missing reconciled business mix and customer-level demand detail limit confidence in the durability assessment.", "title": "What would change our view" } ], "sensitivity": { "rows": [ { "change_from_close_pct": -23.50000000000001, "conditional_price": 386.17199066162107, "eps_change_pct": -10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": -15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": -10.000000000000009, "conditional_price": 454.31998901367183, "eps_change_pct": -10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 3.499999999999992, "conditional_price": 522.4679873657226, "eps_change_pct": -10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": -15.000000000000002, "conditional_price": 429.0799896240234, "eps_change_pct": 0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": -15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 0.0, "conditional_price": 504.79998779296875, "eps_change_pct": 0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 14.999999999999991, "conditional_price": 580.519985961914, "eps_change_pct": 0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": -6.499999999999995, "conditional_price": 471.9879885864258, "eps_change_pct": 10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": -15.0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 10.000000000000009, "conditional_price": 555.2799865722657, "eps_change_pct": 10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 0 }, { "change_from_close_pct": 26.49999999999999, "conditional_price": 638.5719845581054, "eps_change_pct": 10.0, "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_diluted_eps_arithmetic", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "calc:last_close" ], "formula": "arithmetic_ttm_eps*(1+eps_assumption)*current_indicative_multiple*(1+multiple_assumption)", "multiple_change_pct": 15.0 } ], "status": "HYPOTHETICAL_NOT_TARGETS" }, "summary": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct" ], "text": "AMD’s growth and improving analyst estimates support the business case, but valuation remains demanding. The single gap driving a Hold is the free-cash-flow margin implied by today’s price versus the margin delivered: the implied level is far above trailing results. Confirmation of Data Center acceleration and durable margins in the scheduled report would change that balance; weaker delivery would deepen the valuation concern." }, "version": "research-presentation-v2", "watchlist": [ { "evidence_id": "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "question": "Can sustained cash-flow margins support the level implied by the market?", "risk_direction": "lower" }, { "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "question": "Does revenue delivery close the premium to the peer group?", "risk_direction": "higher" }, { "evidence_id": "sec:insider_net_90d_usd", "question": "Do open-market insider transactions turn net buying?", "risk_direction": "lower" } ] }, "memo": { "business_drivers": { "evidence_ids": [ "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "sec:operating_income:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "doc:c2085562670c121b0986e66a", "doc:d9884ca3769693c7839daee1" ], "text": "The latest reported quarter showed revenue growth and higher operating income, while the company’s published outlook expects Data Center sales to accelerate and drive stronger overall growth and earnings expansion. That makes accelerator demand, customer deployments, supply execution and product mix central to the thesis. The filing attributes the gross-margin comparison partly to the absence of prior-period export-control-related inventory charges and to favorable mix, including greater Data Center revenue; that cautions against treating the improvement as purely recurring. Reconciled business-mix partitions are unavailable, so category contributions and weakening segments cannot be independently assessed." }, "catalysts": { "evidence_ids": [ "doc:c2085562670c121b0986e66a", "doc:b1b1220b786fa33442c2cf84", "calc:earnings_move_median_abs_pct", "calc:earnings_move_max_down_pct" ], "text": "The scheduled report is the immediate company-specific test: investors need evidence that Data Center acceleration, customer deployments and supply execution support the outlook without sacrificing margins. Company guidance is a management claim, while analyst estimates and calendar entries are secondary schedules, not realized results. Past reactions to results releases have typically been meaningful, with both sharp rises and declines; that history underscores event sensitivity, not direction. The supplied large daily moves lack explanatory news for two observations, and the available news does not establish the cause of the drawdown." }, "change_conditions": { "evidence_ids": [ "doc:c2085562670c121b0986e66a", "sec:revenue:0000002488-26-000123:2026-06-27:2026-03-29", "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct" ], "text": "A sustained Hold case would be better supported if reported Data Center demand and customer deployments substantiate management’s acceleration outlook, while gross margin and operating cash flow remain resilient as mix changes. The view would weaken if revenue delivery or forward commentary disappoints, margins retreat as prior-period comparison benefits fade, or cash generation falls behind reported earnings. Improving analyst estimates are supportive but remain forecasts; they do not replace reported evidence of execution. The missing reconciled business mix and customer-level demand detail limit confidence in the durability assessment." }, "earnings_quality": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:ttm_operating_cashflow", "calc:ttm_net_income", "calc:ttm_cash_conversion", "calc:ttm_free_cashflow" ], "text": "TTM operating cash flow exceeds reported net income, and after cash capex free cash flow remains substantial. Matched-period cash conversion is above net income, but working-capital movements and noncash adjustments can affect that relationship. Treating stock compensation as a cash cost reduces the resulting margin meaningfully; repurchases are comparatively modest and do not offset dilution automatically. The filing also describes a receivable subject to impairment assessment and substantial future amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, relevant to interpreting reported earnings and asset quality." }, "headline": "Growth is strong, but valuation leaves limited room for error", "rating": "Hold", "risk_case": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:max_drawdown_90_observations_pct", "calc:large_daily_move_3_pct", "doc:d9884ca3769693c7839daee1" ], "text": "The strongest challenge is that rapid forecast growth could validate the premium, while an abrupt valuation reset could overwhelm operating progress. The recent peak-to-trough drawdown began before the available news feed, and no results release or supplied news item establishes its cause; how much bad news it already reflects is therefore unknown. The largest recent down day coincided with news items, but the available evidence does not establish which item caused the move. Gross-margin comparison also benefited from prior-period charges not recurring and favorable mix." }, "summary": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:ttm_fcf_after_sbc_margin_pct", "est:eps_revision_this_year_change_30d_pct" ], "text": "AMD’s growth and improving analyst estimates support the business case, but valuation remains demanding. The single gap driving a Hold is the free-cash-flow margin implied by today’s price versus the margin delivered: the implied level is far above trailing results. Confirmation of Data Center acceleration and durable margins in the scheduled report would change that balance; weaker delivery would deepen the valuation concern." }, "valuation": { "evidence_ids": [ "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "calc:indicative_price_to_eps", "peer:AVGO:indicative_pe" ], "text": "The forward EV-to-sales multiple is at a premium to the peer median; the forecast revenue needed to match that peer multiple is materially above consensus. Justifying the premium therefore requires revenue to exceed expectations and convert into durable margins. AMD’s indicative trailing earnings multiple is also much higher than the available peer P/E observations, although peers differ in business mix and profitability. The middle operating DCF sensitivity is well below market enterprise value. It assumes free cash flow after stock compensation, persistent trailing margin, aggregate net reinvestment, forecast revenue growth, a discount-rate range and terminal growth; value is particularly sensitive to margin persistence and terminal contribution. These hypothetical inputs are not verified forecasts, and the equity bridge is unavailable." }, "watchlist": [ { "evidence_id": "calc:dcf_implied_fcf_margin_pct", "question": "Can sustained cash-flow margins support the level implied by the market?", "risk_direction": "lower" }, { "evidence_id": "calc:forward_ev_to_sales_premium_to_peers_pct", "question": "Does revenue delivery close the premium to the peer group?", "risk_direction": "higher" }, { "evidence_id": "sec:insider_net_90d_usd", "question": "Do open-market insider transactions turn net buying?", "risk_direction": "lower" } ] }, "editorial_selection": { "version": "editorial-interest-v2", "edition": "2026-11-02", "quiet_day": false, "explanation": "Selected from 14 eligible candidates across 30 supported assets. Completed-session move -10.88% (3.22 standard deviations); volume 2.12x the previous 20-session median; median daily dollar volume $10,886m. Catalyst: no classified catalyst. Editorial score 53.8/100. Event classification uses dated source metadata, not verified economic impact. 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